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IDC: iPad’s first year of decline expected as worldwide tablet growth significantly slows

ipadThe latest numbers from market research company IDC reveal that worldwide tablet growth is expected to have significantly declined in 2014, with just 7.2% year-over-year growth compared to 52.5% in 2013. A contributing factor will likely be the iPad’s first year of decline as the tablet’s market share continues to fall because of a growing number of cheaper alternatives.

IDC finds that the slowdown in sales of both the iPad and the broader tablet market is largely unsurprising, given that tablets have a longer upgrade cycle that is closer to that of computers than smartphones. It was originally expected that tablets would be replaced every 2-3 years, but many tablet users are holding onto their devices for longer than that.

“What has played out instead is that many tablet owners are holding onto their devices for more than 3 years and in some instances more than 4 years,” said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. “We believe the two major drivers for longer than expected tablet lifecycles are legacy software support for older products, especially within iOS, and the increased use of smartphones for a variety of computing tasks.”

Worldwide Tablet Year-over-Year Growth 2014

IDC claims that the landscape of the tablet market could change based on industry reaction to Windows 10, what Google does in this space with its Android and Chrome OS efforts, and Apple’s product line extension with the oft-rumored iPad Pro. “The next six months should be really interesting,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, Research Director for Tablets.

Apple introduced the iPad Air 2 and iPad mini 3 at its October media event earlier this year, although each tablet is more of an evolutionary versus revolutionary update compared to the tablets before them. The flagship feature of each tablet is the addition of Touch ID, while the iPad Air 2 in particular gained a thinner build and improved display, faster Apple A8X chip, upgraded iSight and FaceTime HD cameras and faster wireless over both Wi-Fi and LTE.

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Comments

  1. CJ Sheets - 9 years ago

    The market is saturated with tablets. And they’re becoming more prevalent everyday. Make compelling reasons for people to upgrade and they will.

  2. 89p13 - 9 years ago

    I would not trade my Desktop for a Laptop – My desktop has very specific functions and all the storage that I want.

    I would not trade my Laptop for a Tablet – I much prefer text data creation on my laptop and the ability to add USB-based peripherals.

    I would not trade my ipad for an iPhone – while the 6Plus screen is a tremendous improvement in screen size over the my old iPhone – I’d rather watch media on my iPad.

    I would not trade my iPhone 6 Plus for any other phone – I know it too well.

    the point of this post is that every device has “Special Needs” that it fulfills. IMO – There is no universal replacement for everything.

    YMMV!

    • Edison Wrzosek - 9 years ago

      So what you’re essentially saying is…

      “The right tool, for the right job” :)

      I concur, I have devices of each genre, and I use them accordingly based on the task I need to perform. Most people who perform duties and jobs in a professional capacity will have setup’s like these, whereas some average consumers can get by with just one or two devices.

  3. jrox16 - 9 years ago

    People don’t replace their tablets as often, that’s the majority of the reason I believe. There’s no standard upgrade renewal cycle like with cell phones where you get a heavily subsidized device every 2 years. Therefore, if I spend $600 on a 32GB iPad Air, as much as I would love an Air 2 for the better screen, 64GB of storage, faster performance thanks to stronger chip and 2GB of RAM, I just don’t need to really. I would be a spoiled kid luxury at this point and I’ve decided to wait for the Air 3 or 4. I probably should use the same logic with my smartphone, but subsidized every two years it ends up being $299 (half the cost of a new iPad) and I use that more often than my iPad so it makes more sense to keep that as current as possible. So there you go….

    • Stormin Balders - 9 years ago

      People (usually from the US) buy into these expensive contracts and think they are getting a cheap phone. They are in fact paying grossly over the odds for their phones. Instead of $299 think more like $2699 over the course of 2 years. I don’t quite understand why no-one has exposed this yet. Neither do I understand how people can fall for this con.

      I, more sensibly, buy my phone from Apple and pay £6 (approx £$9) a month as opposed to paying inflated credit interest payments over 24 months.

      I would advise anyone else to do the same.

    • ipj071095uk - 9 years ago

      Is the handset really subsidised these days? I know here in the UK the network operators tend to pass on the full cost of the handset and then some. For example on our Vodafone network buying the phone outright and then buying a sim only plan works out cheaper in almost all cases. For example:

      Buy handset and sim only plan option
      64gb iPhone plus = £699
      Annual 4G Red L plan (unlimited text and minutes, 7gb data) = £25.60 per month
      Total cost over 2 years = £1313

      ‘Subsidised’ 2 year contract option
      Initial Handset cost = £129
      Annual 4G Red L plan (unlimited text and minutes, 7gb data) = £53.50 per month
      Total cost over 2 years = £1413

      Even taking into account the upfront costs it would be no more expensive to get a loan and pay for the handset upfront and buying it upfront means you get the added benefit of the phone being unlocked and therefore allowing you to switch to other plans / providers as you see fit. Is the situation in the US drastically different?

  4. gkbrown - 9 years ago

    “the slowdown in sales of both the iPad and the broader tablet market is largely unsurprising, given that tablets have a longer upgrade cycle that is closer to that of computers”

    I think it’s also because a lot of early tablet adopters, like myself, realized that tablets are not a good laptop replacement. My next portable device will be a new laptop, not a new iPad.

    • alvinguzman - 9 years ago

      Agree…for the past 3 years Apple for consistency sake has kept feature parity between iPhones and Ipads. That’s why the Ipad 2 can do just about everything the Ipad Air 2 (beside being faster and Touch ID) can do.
      Next year (hopefully) Apple will dispense with this requirement and finally give the ipad Air 2 and next model real muscle to take on the Laptops.

  5. Erik Bock - 9 years ago

    jrox16 and gkbrown are right on target. A tablet is to like a smartphone when it comes to upgrade time. It is more like a PC. I have been using the same iPad ever since the iPad 3 came out. I had an iPad 2 but did that upgrade because I wanted the Retina display. I am now considering an iPad Air 2 but still haven’t made u my mind on that ( My wife wants my iPad 3.) At the same time my use cases for a tablet at all have changed. I am no longer in Grad school where all my textbooks were delivered electronically and don’t need it to take notes in class any longer. My job has changed and I use a laptop more than I would a tablet. I may give her the iPad and just not get one at all or atlas until my use cases change again. New job maybe and I am considering a PhD.

  6. herb02135go - 9 years ago

    It’s not just that alternatives to iPad are cheaper. They are also better in terms of features and performance.

    It was the Samsung Tab that got me hooked on the Android ecosystem. It’s a great value and once tried it in realized what I’d been missing.
    It was like growing up with a radio and then getting a TV.

    • Edison Wrzosek - 9 years ago

      No, it’s like growing up with a radio, then getting two tin cans with strings attached… Your clocks seem to be travelling backwards in time, because the Samshit Tab was 10 steps behind iPad’s, and they still are.

      • herb02135go - 9 years ago

        And you’ve used one?
        Edison, it works better if you take it out of the box.

      • sircheese69 - 9 years ago

        Do you honestly think he has used one Herb? I doubt it.

  7. Built Frenchié - 9 years ago

    You will always find a decline on tablets yearly for which there no need to upgrade yearly. Why? I do not play games on my iPad; some of the high in specs are geared in that direction and is pointless for me. If I want to play games, I will turn on my PS4 instead. Let assume I bought the iPad Air 2 today, I will replace that unit in either 2 or 3 years later. Nowwwwwwwwwww if Apple can push out a iPad that gives me 20 hours of battery life w/split screen options, 5K recording, 2+ gigs of rams, DVD or CD Sharing Setup, then I would honestly reconsider by my replacement sooner

  8. drtyrell969 - 9 years ago

    Get super used to this news.

  9. Lars Pallesen - 9 years ago

    I wonder how many read a headline like this and get the impression that iPad sales have dropped compared to previous years? Well they haven’t. The sales numbers have gone UP – not down. “But the GROWTH in sales have slowed down compared to previous years”. Ehm, yeah, of course they have! Look if you start out in 2010 having sold 0 iPads in 2009 you’re gonna see spectacular GROWTH in tablet sales year over year percentage-wise! Same thing again in 2011 and 2012 when most consumers still haven’t jumped on the tablet train. But then inevitably the GROWTH in sales numbers will begin to flatten out, since it’s much harder to add a growth of 135% to 52 million sold iPads year over year than it is to do the same from a baseline of perhaps 12 million iPads the year before that! It’s simple LOGIC people!