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It’s time for Munster’s annual ‘Apple television’ prediction, and this time it’s two years away

apple-television-munster

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is famous for his annual prediction that Apple’s long-rumored television is launching next year, but this year he’s mixing it up a little, predicting instead that it will be launched in two years’ time.

Back in 2011, he predicted at the IGNITION conference that it would launch before the 2012 holiday season. Once it was clear that wasn’t going to happen, he predicted late in 2012 that it would be arriving in time for, yep, you guessed it, the 2013 holiday season. He clung to that one throughout the early part of last year, but has kept quiet on the subject this year – until now … 

Interviewed by Business Insider back at the scene of his 2011 prediction, he belatedly noticed that Apple does tend to take a few years between new product categories and has hedged his bets by predicting instead that the Apple television is two years away and will be launched in 2016. All we need now to complete the comedy of errors is for Apple to launch next year.

Not deterred by the fact that he’s been proven wrong on the launch date every year, he is confidently predicting sales figures, estimating the smart television market at 220M units and forecasting that Apple will take 10% of that market, giving them 22M sales in the first year.

apple-television-sales

He does, though, deserve credit for opening the interview with the wry observation that being asked to try once more on the date is part of his “annual penance for being incorrect.”

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Comments

  1. Just because Apple researches, designs, builds and even tests something, doesn’t mean they’ll release it that year or ever. I’ve worked with at least a dozen Apple products and product versions that never saw the light of day outside the NDA lab.

  2. His obsessive need to predict something Apple hasn’t done in nearly 3 years is disturbing. I can only assume he wants all the credit for revealing this mythical product but honestly, who cares?!!

    When I’m eventually sitting on my couch streaming Guardians of the Galaxy via my AppleTV Air the last thing I’ll be thinking is, “Thank goodness for Munster’s prediction!”

    Once Apple’s worked out all the messy content deals with networks and cable/satellite companies someone from one of those companies, against Apple’s wishes, will spill the beans or leak a contract or email providing details of the deal.

    Apple’s pretty good about keeping things under wraps but the moment another company is involved it increases the chances of word getting out.

    Shut up Munster.

  3. lexxkoto - 9 years ago

    I don’t think Apple will ever do a TV. It doesn’t make sense.

    Apple make money from things that people upgrade every few years: computers, phones, tablets and iPods. People generally don’t replace their 40 inch TVs that often. Especially if we’re talking about paying Apple prices for what would probably a very nice, but premium priced TV.

    Apple are much better off selling a $99 box that plugs into an existing TV via the HDMI port, and they know it. After all, everybody already has a big flatscreen TV. Why try to get people to drop $999 on a premium TV when you can get them to buy a $99 box for the living room and a $99 box for the bedroom?

  4. I suppose if you keep saying something long enough eventually your odds of it coming true will go up but in my opinion he should just cut his loses.

    Sure it looks like Apple might do this someday but who knows maybe they decide it needs 10 or 20 more years before what they hope will be viable is viable.

  5. krikaoli - 9 years ago

    I don’t take his previsions seriously anymore.

  6. philboogie - 9 years ago

    There has never been a statue erected to honour an analyst.

  7. WaveMedia (@WaveMedia) - 9 years ago

    If I were this consistently incompetent at my job I’d have been fired long, long ago.

  8. jorn - 9 years ago

    I predict Gene Munster will be homeless and broke in 2012.

  9. Inaba-kun (@Inaba_kun) - 9 years ago

    This is the first photo I’ve ever seen of this legendary clown, and I must say I’m disappointed he doesn’t in any way look like Herman Munster.

    As for the Apple TV, I’m more interested in a new set top box with a proper app store. The current device is technologically primitive, has a clunky and ugly UI, and has such poor app support outside the US as to make it utterly worthless.

Author

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Ben Lovejoy

Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!


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