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KGI: New 4-inch iPhone will resemble iPhone 5s, expect A9 chip and NFC for Apple Pay

iphone-6c

KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo, who has a good track record on what if not when, says that Apple’s new 4-inch iPhone will “resemble an upgraded iPhone 5s,” but will get some new internals. Externally, he suggests the main visible difference will be similar curved-edge glass to the iPhone 6/6s.

Beneath the hood, he says the phone – expected to be dubbed the iPhone 6c – will get an A9 processor and NFC chip to support Apple Pay. The camera will, however, be identical to that in the 5s. Kuo’s investment note also supports recent reports that the 6c will get a metal case, stating that it will be available in at least 2-3 colors.

Kuo expects the phone to hit in the first quarter of next year, but does think that it may generate relatively modest sales … 

The note estimates that the new model – expected to be priced at $400-500 – will account for 8-9% of next year’s iPhone sales, but says that there is still good reason for Apple to launch. There is still demand for 4-inch phones, and it will help Apple extend its penetration into emerging markets and consumers on tighter budgets. Supporting Apple Pay will also strengthen the Apple ecosystem.

Kuo believes that while the usual seasonal effect will see iPhone sales slowing early next year, the new model could reduce the scale of that slowdown.

The note supports the theory we expressed yesterday that the new phone will replace the iPhone 5s in the line-up.

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Comments

  1. Julien (@FLKone) - 8 years ago

    YES^20000

  2. johnmfoley - 8 years ago

    Hmmmm… if it is the 6c will the C stand for compact or still colorful? New iPod Touch-like anodized colors?

    • Robert - 8 years ago

      I think people are guessing at the name. The iPhone 5c wasn’t a huge success. Apple might consider a new name that doesn’t carry that baggage.

  3. avieshek - 8 years ago

    7000 series aluminium?

  4. His good track record is like throwing darts at a board (even a broken clock is right 2 times per day). Supplier data can only get you so far and he’s drawing a lot of conclusions that may not pan out.

    • Robert - 8 years ago

      He’s often right about the timing but wrong about the details of the product. He has information from contacts that work with suppliers but he doesn’t always put the pieces of information together correctly. Whilst he understands how the supply chain works he seems to lack an understanding of the way Apple makes product decisions.

  5. avieshek - 8 years ago

    Bigger battery for a fatter phone?

  6. alanaudio - 8 years ago

    … but does think that it may generate relatively modest sales …

    That was the line that was peddled about the original 5C, but it turned out that sales were actually pretty good when real sales figures were released rather than analysts guesses.

    If this range is priced to make it the cheapest iPhone, then high sales are assured. Personally I would prefer it to be fully featured, including 3D Touch, which would mean that the price would only be a little less than it’s bigger siblings, but for me the 4″ form factor is would be the major attraction.

  7. avieshek - 8 years ago

    Updated touch-id ver2.0?

  8. mashdots - 8 years ago

    I won’t lie, if the 7 is just a spec bump and a new design, then the 6C might be cool. I feel strange to say this, but I kinda miss having a 4″ screen. Weird, I know.

  9. Nate Hoffelder - 8 years ago

    Eh. This is basically a rehashing of the prediction Kuo made around this time last month, only with a couple additional details.
    http://the-digital-reader.com/2015/11/04/four-inch-iphone-tipped-for-early-2016/

  10. justincirello - 8 years ago

    I really like the idea of Apple offering three different models (4″, 4.7″, 5.5″). It gives consumers more options, and more importantly, allows Apple to expand their reach into emerging markets/less affluent consumers.

    Apple is very savvy. They are going to price this thing jussttttt right so that consumers logically make the bump to the 6S. There will be some key missing features from the new 4″ phone.

  11. uniszuurmond - 8 years ago

    I’m afraid this time Kuo has it wrong. I live in an emerging market, and a feature stripped old design ar just slightly less won’t cut it. You can buy a very modern specced up Xiaomi for a third of that price, and when people are cash strapped, thats what they buy.

    • uniszuurmond - 8 years ago

      If, however, the didn’t aim it at the less affluent, but rather had one design with all the features in 3 sizes, many people here would go for that rather than Androids.

    • Paul Van Obberghen - 8 years ago

      I’m not sure, though I’m not living in a emerging market (more like a declining market, that is Europe). I believe people are buying iPhone because it’s Apple and it’s iOS and Apple eco-system and all and they don’t necessarily want the latest tech. Like Force Touch and 12MP camera, as the 8MP was already quite good. But they really do prefer a smaller phone. The price is less of an issue and it wont be that much cheaper than the 6S, say like 100$/€ less at equivalent storage.

    • I live in east Africa. All the Chinese / Korean phones are ‘dumped’ here. If an iPhone of this type releases it’ll get uptake Simon,y coz it’s an iPhone. Unlike developed markets, the iPhone is in the minority in emerging markets but that minority is super loyal. Cheaper iPhone that’s not so old WILL be taken up rather well. Folks still rocking the 4S as the most common iPhone in terms of numbers out in the wild, out here. The 4″ iPhone would be gobbled up.

  12. Greg Kaplan (@kaplag) - 8 years ago

    “expected to be dubbed the iPhone 6c”

    Expected by who? That doesn’t make any sense based on what’s in this report. KGI reports 2-3 colors which is likely silver, space grey and maybe gold. The 5c came in 5 colors and the colored ipod touches come in 7 colors. Everything that’s described here sounds nothing like what the 5c was to the 5s so I have no idea why we keep trying to shove the same name on it.

    Lets stop calling this the 6c keep calling it the 4″ iphone until you have more information. “6c” is carrying a bunch of baggage that’s making it hard for people to think what this product could be.

    • Ben Lovejoy - 8 years ago

      I’d be surprised if Apple invented a whole new naming scheme for it, so 6c seems the most likely to me, but we’ll see …

      • Greg Kaplan (@kaplag) - 8 years ago

        6 mini, 6, and 6+ makes more sense to me if it’s not going to be plastic and come in “2-3 colors” which are likely just the normal metal that the iphone 6 came in. It’s not really a new name. it’s just a smaller iphone 6 just like the plus is a larger one.

    • srgmac - 8 years ago

      My mom still uses the 5C, it’s the best phone she’s ever owned…She’s had it for two years now, still works fine. Why do people hate the 5C so much?

      • uniszuurmond - 8 years ago

        Agree, it’s a great phone. I’d have a plastic 6s anyday. But don’t cut back on tech.

      • Greg Kaplan (@kaplag) - 8 years ago

        @srgmac, I agree it’s great, I really liked the design. This phone sounds like it won’t be anything like the 5c so it’s weird to try to market it as a successor when people didn’t really understand the 5c to begin with. Tech writers kept thinking it was supposed to be a budge phone made by apple to compete in china and it was never that or meant to be that.

      • Ilko Sarafski - 8 years ago

        Same applies to my brother who literally received his 6S as a present from his co-workers. But he love his 5C so much, that he was thinking to remain with it. :D P.S. My brother is heavy-weight developer, so he understands pretty good the situation.
        Tons of people are loving 5C but the “crowd” out there simply put that weird stamp on it… because it’s plastic and whatnot! It’s a great telephone!

      • Ilko Sarafski - 8 years ago

        … his 6S two days ago^^. (Stupid WordPress no-edit function)

      • srgmac - 8 years ago

        I guess I have to reply to myself — but anyway — at first I thought the plastic would be a bad idea with the 5C, but… Let’s just say I got a 5S around the same time my mom got the 5C. We both still have them — guess who’s phone has ZERO dents / scratches / dings on it? Unfortunately it’s not mine :| It’s not bad, it’s mostly around the frame — tons of tiny little dings and dents though :(

  13. John Smith - 8 years ago

    Whether this guy knows anything or not, I can’t say.

    On the idea of a 4in iPhone: I’m all in favour.

    It’s not just price point. I know many people do everything on their phone and for them the larger screens on the current iPhones were long overdue. But not everyone needs that (particularly if you also have an iPad). An up to date iPhone with a smaller physical size would be great – presumably it would also be lighter in weight than the iPhone 4/4S

  14. Greg Kaplan (@kaplag) - 8 years ago

    The 32gb 5s is only $50 cheaper than what should have been a 32gb 6. I guess it makes sense to ditch it and get apple pay out there. I’m just unsure with what the messaging will be.

    Since it won’t be a colored version of the 6 that replaces the 6 it should really be treated as just a small iphone 6 – The iphone 6 mini (the ipod mini came in colors so that could still happen). But then it should look exactly pretty much like an iphone 6 if they are going to keep 6 in the name. So looking like a weird 5/6 hybrid doesn’t make sense.

    Maybe they ditch the 6 naming and treat it like a new line. An iphone mini like the ipad mini. But the ipad mini had a totally fresh design that the ipad look so fat and large that when the ipad later adopted that design they had to rename it the ipad air… it felt like a really desirable new product despite being a smaller ipad 2 and no retina.

    This report is just so confused and weird. It’s like KGI knows what would makes sense for apple do from business perspective but has no clue what makes a desirable product to customers. I’m the target audience for this device and yea, the basic idea of a 4″ phone with 6 specs is really appealing but what he is describing is not: “hey all you people who have been patiently waiting for us to make a good small phone. Here it is and it looks pretty much like a 4 year old design with 1 year old internals. Hope you are satisfied. ps don’t expect to get the cool features” – cheers, Apple.

    Apple makes desirable products and this is more desirable: “Thanks for your patients! we’ve been working super hard to create this totally new phone that redesigns what a small phone can be. It packs all the power of the 6 in and even smaller design than the 5s. Oh and it has 3d touch but we couldn’t do that without a compromise like dropping the jack but you’ll be happier with this compromise. we still care” – love, Apple.

    • srgmac - 8 years ago

      Apple Pay should have been in the 5S — it’s a shame they decided to not put it in there. Phill Schiller said at the time that NFC was downright useless, then one year later, it’s the basis for their entire mobile payment platform….SIGH! If they would have put it in there, the 5S would have had it’s life extended even more…I still rock a 5S though, For Apple Pay I use my watch…The CPU in the 5S is just so ridiculously fast…I’m getting a free upgrade though now that VZW killed my unlimited data plan…Dunno whether I should get the 6S or 6S+…I’m leaning towards the 6S; I need something that can fit in my pants pockets and I can use with one hand.

      • Ilko Sarafski - 8 years ago

        Go 6S dude. Once you are there, there’s no coming back! :) I came from the 4 to 6S. The leap, as one might expect, was huge. And I don’t I can go back to anything lower than 4.7. But who knows! :)

    • This is a good, better, best business model so the reality is just like the 5C, the good stuff will be omitted so that it can push the 4″ owners up the iodine food chain. Sucks from a consumer perspective but it’s the most ideal business perspective. Feel them in just enough for them to taste it, then hook ’em. It worked wonders for the 6, not to mention mentally transitioning us to the two iPhones at once release mode we’d not encountered. Son don’t hold your breath for all goodies on it.

  15. animatedude - 8 years ago

    No updated Camera or 2 GB no thanks!

  16. blockbusterbuzz - 8 years ago

    Very interesting. Do you guys think Apple will give it a proper event to launch the product or will they just release it on their website like some of the updates for the Mac and iPod?

  17. calisurfboy - 8 years ago

    People want a smaller size, not older technology. I would like to have the iPad mini and iPhone 6C without it being handicapped off the bat.

  18. waltertizzano - 8 years ago

    I would seriously consider it. I have an iPhone 6, but it’s way too big to be usable, Apple should be ashamed of it.

    • taoprophet420 - 8 years ago

      I have had a 6 plus since its release and could never go back to a 4 inch phone. The 6 plus is pocketable it almost all the jeans and shorts I own. It reduces eye srain for me.

      I have always been a dual handed user though. With smaller then normal hands and arthritis I have used all my iPhone’s with both hands unless I’m making calls.

  19. Presumably this will be announced at a spring event with the Apple Watch 2?

    • taoprophet420 - 8 years ago

      iPad Air 3 would be more likely then Apple Watch 2. I think Apple will preview the next Apple Watch at WWDC. I wish they would release a FDA approved device this year.

      • srgmac - 8 years ago

        Is FDA approval a huge deal?

      • o0smoothies0o - 8 years ago

        They will not put the watch through the FDA process. Tim Cook already said that. I believe they will have smart bands to attach to the watch which will go through the FDA approval process with embedded sensors. Then after FDA approval of the particular sensors in the band, I believe they’ll slowly add them to the watch itself, as I’m sure the FDA approval would go through if they showed they were using the same sensor technology in the watch, as they were in the bands that had been FDA approved. Basically what they’re trying to do is continue to quickly innovate the watch without being slowed down by the slow FDA approval process. Whilst at the same time, trying to push groundbreaking world changing sensors through the FDA approval process in bands which will attack to future Watch versions port, inside the groove.

    • Greg Kaplan (@kaplag) - 8 years ago

      I think it would be apple watch 2, 4″ iphone, and AirPods. I guess maybe something ipad but not sure anyone is really looking for an updated ipad air just yet.

      • And the iPad market is stil, there, albeit slow. After skipping iPad upgrade this year it can’t miss next year.

    • I don’t think 2016 will see a new Apple Watch yet. Most ideal upgrade cycle for the watch is most likely 2yrs so maybe 2017.

  20. srgmac - 8 years ago

    Uhm…why would the camera be the same that’s in the 5S? That’s two generations old now. Everything else sounds credible I guess. The 5S should have had NFC to begin with…That was a BIG mistake not putting it in there, and Phil Schiller said the best line ever at the time “It’s not clear NFC is the solution to any problem” — What a dingbat — 1 year later, Apple Pay is debuted, and it’s NFC based…OOPS!

    • Greg Kaplan (@kaplag) - 8 years ago

      “It’s not clear NFC is the solution to any problem” And that was right at the time. easy Mobile payments was a problem and apple pay is a solution that is built on multiple technologies, not just nfc.

  21. kjl3000 - 8 years ago

    Fingers crossed for 3D Touch and better camera …

  22. animatedude - 8 years ago

    In this case they need to call it iPhone 6s mini

  23. o0smoothies0o - 8 years ago

    I believe this will be the very thin iPhone. I don’t believe the iPhone 7 will reduce much in depth this year. When you look at the facts it’s hard to imagine how Apple is rumored to be aiming to drop the iPhone 7 and 7 Plus nearly a full mm in depth. They just introduced 3D Touch and made the devices 0.2mm thicker because of it. I think the iPhone 7 and 7 Plus may only be 0.3mm thinner. The new iPhone 6C, however, without 3D Touch, has a great chance of becoming extremely thin. When you think about the fact that they’re going from an A7 in the iPhone 5S to the much more efficient A9, and the fact that the screen size is remaining the same, as well as pixel density, I think they have the opportunity to greatly reduce this device’s thickness. I think they should call it iPhone 6 Air or iPhone 6 Mini. An incredibly thin, light, compact device. Just my speculation.

  24. splendificent - 8 years ago

    If this info is accurate, this phone will sell more than analyst think. Could easily outsell the 6s. Way better design than the current 6s(+).

  25. capdorf - 8 years ago

    Great. Depends on how much they ‘dumb’ it down. A small phone I want, but a dumbed down small memory phone, I don’t. Here’s hoping apple are listening.

  26. I don’t think Americans get him the rest of the world works. Outside Europe and north a,Erica, folks have only one option: buy an iPhone at full price upfront. None of that subsidy vibe out here. A 4″ will have a rather good market in the rest of the world, and in the main markets it’ll help push the good, better, best model where you offer a good starting point w/ limited benefits, to entice you to upgrade. Outside North America the 5S is very much still prime material. So a new 4″ iPhone WILL sell.

Author

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Ben Lovejoy

Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!


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