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IDC: Apple Watch to hold smartwatch lead through 2020 as Android Wear closes gap

IDC-March-2016-Apple-Watch

IDC’s latest report is out today with new estimates based on worldwide wearable shipments, and in it is a prediction that Apple Watch will hold the market lead this year and through 2020 as competitors begin to close the gap.

While the report shows estimates based on overall wearable shipments, which IDC says will go from 72.2 million last year to 100 million in 2016 for watch and wristband products, it also shows a breakdown of estimates for leading smartwatch platforms by operating system…

That gives us a good look at the state of the smartwatch industry from the perspective of Apple Watch versus all of Android Wear and other mechanical smartwatch devices. IDC’s data shows that Apple should hold the lead in 2016 with an expected 14 million units shipped, over double the shipment estimate of 6.1 million Android Wear devices for this year. That would give Apple 49.4% of the smartwatch market this year versus 21.4% for Android Wear.

That’s despite what IDC points out will likely be “some slowdown in the early part of 2016” for Apple ahead of a second generation device:

Apple’s watchOS is likely to see some slowdown in the early part of 2016 as anticipation builds for the second generation device. However, with newer hardware and an evolving ecosystem, Apple will remain the smartwatch leader through the majority of the forecast.

Apple is expected to launch new first-gen Apple Watch configurations at its March 21st press event next week that will consist of new colors and bands for the spring, but that will be considered a minor refresh for the first-generation device ahead of a full-fledged Apple Watch 2 expected for later this year.

But going forward, IDC expects Apple will only slightly hold onto its lead as Android Wear closes the gap and almost entirely catches up to Apple Watch by the end of 2019. In 2020, IDC expects Apple Watch will sell 31 million units for 37.6% of the market while it estimates Android Wear to sell 28 million units and grab 35% market share.

IDC-March-Smartwatch-OS

The rest of the market is made up of devices running Real-Time Operating System (RTOS), Tizen, Android, Linux, and Pebble OS, and IDC predicts only RTOS and Android devices to experience minor growth into 2020 as other operating systems drop.

Last month, IDC showed that Apple Watch, with around 4.1 million units sold in Q4 2015, was number two behind only Fitbit for not just smartwatch shipments, but the entire wearables market.

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Comments

  1. Carl Bird - 8 years ago

    predictions are not that helpful. Fitbit has a large wearable market and just released their first smart watch which I suspect will place it towards the top in the next few years.

    • crichton007 - 8 years ago

      I kind of agree. This prediction appears to assume that Android Wear won’t close the functionally gap that quickly. My feeling is that there are more iPhone purchasers that are more likely to buy a wearable device than there are Android users willing to do the same.

      On a related note I think the new Fitbit watch is ugly (based on images and not having seen one in person).

    • Dan Meyer - 8 years ago

      It will be interesting to see how the market adjust to this. I do agree about how Fitbit has one of the largest wearable market. I just can’t see them surpassing Apple or Android . Reason is that Apple and Android have made their watches based off their phones capabilities and it is so easy to integrate them into the phones. I personally think more Apple/Android users are more likely to buy a smart watch based off their phone. Which is why you buy a smart watch, a extension of your phone. Just a personal opinion.

  2. xoFoxtail - 8 years ago

    It’s kind of sad to see Pebble so low on it.

    • jacosta45 - 8 years ago

      I returned mine. It was too basic.

      • xoFoxtail - 8 years ago

        I loved the original Pebble and Steel. I had the Kickstarter Pebble Time for 2 months before my brother talked me into getting an Apple Watch. Which, for the most part I’m getting a lot more use out of.

  3. tincan2012 - 8 years ago

    This is the same IDC that predicted that Windows phones would dominate now, at the expense of iOS and Android.
    I think we can safely bury that prediction .

    • Everything IDC publishes that can’t be verified in financial reports from the companies mentioned is 100% bullshit. It’s just all made up. Pulled from thin air. This is very easy to verify based on past reports – most people of course only have access to the free ones and highlights. IDC’s business is selling reports to companies. Companies use their BS reports to bolster their own bullshit. The whole thing is a giant scam.

  4. David Garon - 8 years ago

    If I could only look 4 years into the future like these bozoids! Predictions like this can NEVER take into account all the variables that could weigh on them. It’s a fool’s errand, and perhaps a ploy to control markets.

Author

Avatar for Jordan Kahn Jordan Kahn

Jordan writes about all things Apple as Senior Editor of 9to5Mac, & contributes to 9to5Google, 9to5Toys, & Electrek.co. He also co-authors 9to5Mac’s Logic Pros series.