I think Apple's market share overall won't change much, but Apple will seep in stronger into it's current market segments like education (where you find huge market shares - some universities have 30% Mac users!) and Graphic Design or small businesses.
The PC will survive because it can be shipped in cheap boxes for devloping countries, and MS has complied with a corresponding stripped-down version of Windows Vista (probably the only one that actually works).
I don't know Apple's corporate strategy, but it either is bringing new products to it's existing market, or exploring new markets with existing (or modified) products.
Who cares about consumer. The real money now and in the future is in business infrastucture IT spending. And M$ is starting to really dominate over Novell, IBM, Linux/UNIX, etc since they offer an "all in one" platform with Windows Server, SQL Server and .net
I am a 52 year old Apple product nut. I own almost every product offered by the company and love the product quality and support provided. I am not a technical user --- but a busines user and have used Apple products for over 20 years.
I believe that Apple's market will incrrease modestly in 2008. In part, I expect Apple to be a victim of its own success.
Increasingly, major players are taking Apple's success much more seriously. In 2008 I expect that Apple will experience increased competition, stiffer terms from content providers & additional legal challenges from 3rd parties (contract issues/patennt infringment issues/product class actions) will start to take a toll on Apples overall business and resources and increase its cost structure. .
I am not suggesting that business will be poor for Apple. I fact, I think Apple will continue to be a leading player. But, I also believe that the honeymoon is now over --- and, like IBM and Microsoft before them, competitiors in the market now have Apple in their sites.
It is true that Apple's taking on more and more players in more and more markets (many with huge staffs and resources all over the world) and none of them want their lunch eaten, and while A, Inc. is wildly profitable it is worth remembering they had to pull staff off Leopard to get their fledgling phone off the ground.
And may have the most lawyers on retainer per $ of sales of any corp its size, given all the class actions and infringement suits.
Can they truly keep muscling into PC market share, refreshing all models, entering missing segments (mid range/ultraportable), reaching SMB and even Enterprise channels effectively and ramping up unit production?
While fighting the online music and video wars (where they've ruffled many, many feathers and put fear into the hearts of their partners/competitors), expanding their line of (smart)phone products (one model does NOT fit all, and cell manufacturers will find ways around Apples "200 patents" to deliver many of the same or new features, and dump product without an unsubsidized sales tag).
And the browser wars. I'm not giving up FireFox anytime soon.
And the MP3 wars (not much problem here for awhile actually).
And the server and server OS markets.
And the pro sound, video, and image software cauldron.
And the entry level apps wars (iLife, iWorks)?
And the not seeming TOO smug and Marie Antoinetteish while doing it all media wars.
Lots of balls for Steve to juggle (while keeping a big hand in at Disney/Pixar).
So maybe, but pride does goeth before something in many cases.
The only fleeting experience with Vista I had was when we got an HP laptop for my Mom. It came with Vista. I have tried to connect that thing to a Wi-Fi a few times with no success. I mean it would see the router but it wouldn't want to connect to it. After spending a few weeks tinkering in the settings and reading multipage articles on Vista's networiking woes, I finally fixed it......... with a version of Ubuntu 7.10 (Gutsy Gibbon). First try and the computer was on the internet. If that is the average experience for people out there, I think Apple will look much more attractive to a much wider audience out there. With Apple's initial higher price ($949.00 Refurbished MacBook vs $698.00 Costco HP) offsetting the clear advantage in Operating System I believe it will gain about 5-6% next year as soon as more people will start getting tired with Vista's crap.
I've been in IT for 20 years and always had a windows machine(well apart from my commodore 64). For 5 years I sold Linux software solutions for a large 3 letter multinational and in all that time I always admired the design and function of Apple's Mac's. I didn't know much about the OS, except when they shipped OSX - then things started to get interesting as I was doing Linux then.
I am now in the process of getting a Mac Book Pro(yeah I know, upgrade imminent), but Apple needs to 'convert' more of us on the edge to boost its marketshare. That is a hard call. Lots of reasons for resisting Apple's call - your office only provides/uses Windows PC's; at home you might therefore use Windows; investment in printers/scanners/etc. that might not work with OSX; lots more reasons.
That said, I think Apple is the strongest position I have seen them for years and MS has definitely stumbled with Vista. If Apple can garner a further 2-5% of the market, then that is a very big deal. Oh and about bloody time too ! ;-)
living in Asia, and seeing how the market is developing at this end; I imagine that the only way Apple can get that 10% increase, is if it takes Europe and Asia pretty seriously starting right now.
Mac's are (for all their brilliance) still pretty low awareness in large parts of Asia, for example, and there's about 3 billion people in Asia, or say, on average, 750 million families, of which maybe a third will look for a new computer or the like over the next two years. Apple needs to be able to reach the ones who can afford to buy Macs from this set, but I don't think they're doing that so far.
Mon, 11/12/2007 - 23:40 — terry Dunham (not verified)
you've asked an ambiguous question--or, at least, your answers are ambiguous. Assume apple has a 7% share in a given market: by 5% increase, do you mean the new market share would be 7.35%? or 12% Technically, i think the first is the correct interpretation, but given the range of answers you've offered, it seems you might have meant the second.
fwiw, i think apple's u.s. non-business market share will increase about 20% next year--that is, it'll be 20% larger at year's end than at the beginning (NOT 20 percentage points higher)
All i'm gonna say is "THIS IS APPLES TIME TO SHINE AND THEY WILL" all you have to do is look at the stock market and windows vista. I work for newegg and we have had more than 20% of users that buy a windows vista laptop/desktop are also purchasing a copy of windows xp either with the purchase or within 3 weeks of purchasing. So in 2 years time when applications refuse to run on xp and people have no choice Mac os X or windows Vista who do you think they are going to pick? I have been a MCSE certified IT consultant for the past 15 years and have never seen Microsoft so close to being put on its knees trying to get people to use its newest operating system.
It's clear to me that Mac's share of users is growing - how fast is anybody's guess. Purely anecdotal evidence suggests that Mac will be at 10% by the end of 2007. Nearly everyone I know that's considering the purchase of a new computer is leaning toward Mac, for all the reasons one would expect.
Wed, 11/21/2007 - 20:09 — pETE dORETHY (not verified)
through universities everybody seems to be using macs now. I think they'll kick ass this year and blow Vista down to crummy little pieces. It will take some time for them to get into the big shabby companies but they're getting there sooner or later. It's apple picking time now...
Apple really need to have a decent headless Mac to make the most out of Vista defectors. An upgraded Mac mini or a downgraded and downsized Mac Pro so that current PC tower users can keep their old keyboards, displays etc. Also, they need to do it for around the £350-£400 mark (I'm not sure what that worksout to in dollars probably around $500) then people would really be tempted to pay the extra few hundred more than what Vista costs to get new (gorgeous) hardware, OSX AND iLife and use their tower as what it's designed for, a doorstop.
Wed, 11/28/2007 - 22:38 — Marcus Anonymous (not verified)
Let's see. %10 increase of a %8 market share still means less than %9 by the end of 2008. I think Apple will pass %10 in the US by then.
However, 2009 will be interesting. Apple may release a tablet device and improve Apple TV in 2008. But I think 2009 will be the year Apple will make a big effort to get into the corporate market. All the pieces are pretty much in place. Once the iPhone gore into auto-pilot mode - like the iPod has - Apple will be free to work on software and tools to crack open the corporate market.
If successful, I wouldn't be surprised in Mac market share will climb to %20 in five years.
Microsoft has really stumbled with Vista. For example, I tried to connect to a VPN on a Microsoft server and failed. I got an error message asking me to check if the computer was on! However, the enterprise and government markets are locked down. Microsoft will ride it out with XP.
Apple will get more market share, but there are limits. The US military alone has as many Microsoft-powered computers as a medium-sized country, and they switch versions, let alone platforms, very, very slowly.
The real issue here is not market share, because Microsoft and Apple don't directly compete. Microsoft does not manufacture computers or own a chain of stores. Apple doesn't make software for other manufacturer's hardware. Dell and Apple don't directly compete. Dell does not write software for its hardware and has to support software they didn't write.
The real issue is profitability. Apple is in a high mark-up hardware business, they write and thus understand their software, they have a chain of stores that keep all the money in the company and is in complete control of its customer service. Microsoft is in a low mark-up business, dependent on computer manufacturers for most of their sales and on partners and OEMs for customer support. Dell is always playing catch-up. They have to build machines and support customers on an operating system they didn't write. Neither Microsoft nor Dell can completely control their user's experience.
Apple's profits will go through the roof while Microsoft and Dell will just muddle along.
Business sector aside...All I know is that in any Apple store I walk into (in the UK) it's jam packed with kids...Not Tech Geeks or Mac Fans but plain old teenage kids...granted they are checking email and surfing for free...but they seem to love the kit. Can't envisage a MS store having the same allure. Actually can't envisage a MS store at all! This must bode well for Apple's market share 5-10 years?
Fri, 12/07/2007 - 08:56 — David Sheddan (not verified)
I think around 5 percent would be viable - as they say it's a marathon not a sprint. What Apple has - it's crown jewel is a core OS that can be a platform. Be it Apple TV, Computers, iPod or Iphone - at the end of the day the OS X core is there- combined with the end-to-end distrubtion model pioneered in iTunes Apple have a powerful set of tools at their disposal.
Apple's really gift is that they do everything, and whilst Mr Dell (I'd close the company and give the shareholders money back - he's like a bad Santa) may have predicted that doing it all was not the way to go Apple have proven them wrong. As Above- the number of kids that love Apple is growing- and it's this mindshare that is going to be making the decisions in later life for companies.
I predict Apple will start to push OS X server bigger in the next few releases, with the coming core increases in processors, and a UNIX based core- Apple could really score here with the all in one approach... Imagine server software that comes with a Database Engine, Blog, Mail and Video Conference engine built in - ?
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I think Apple's market share
I think Apple's market share overall won't change much, but Apple will seep in stronger into it's current market segments like education (where you find huge market shares - some universities have 30% Mac users!) and Graphic Design or small businesses.
The PC will survive because it can be shipped in cheap boxes for devloping countries, and MS has complied with a corresponding stripped-down version of Windows Vista (probably the only one that actually works).
I don't know Apple's corporate strategy, but it either is bringing new products to it's existing market, or exploring new markets with existing (or modified) products.
Or both, if they have the bandwidth and manpower.
How about: Significant
How about:
Significant increases - 5-8%. Consumers identify the Mac as a superior computer for the home.
that would be 2005
that would be 2005
Who cares about consumer.
Who cares about consumer. The real money now and in the future is in business infrastucture IT spending. And M$ is starting to really dominate over Novell, IBM, Linux/UNIX, etc since they offer an "all in one" platform with Windows Server, SQL Server and .net
* Sony * Sharp * HP/Compaq *
* Sony
* Sharp
* HP/Compaq
* Gateway
* Toshiba
... do you need me to go on, or is your anonymous face blushing in chagrin of your own shortsightedness and arrogant stupidity yet?
I am a 52 year old Apple
I am a 52 year old Apple product nut. I own almost every product offered by the company and love the product quality and support provided. I am not a technical user --- but a busines user and have used Apple products for over 20 years.
I believe that Apple's market will incrrease modestly in 2008. In part, I expect Apple to be a victim of its own success.
Increasingly, major players are taking Apple's success much more seriously. In 2008 I expect that Apple will experience increased competition, stiffer terms from content providers & additional legal challenges from 3rd parties (contract issues/patennt infringment issues/product class actions) will start to take a toll on Apples overall business and resources and increase its cost structure. .
I am not suggesting that business will be poor for Apple. I fact, I think Apple will continue to be a leading player. But, I also believe that the honeymoon is now over --- and, like IBM and Microsoft before them, competitiors in the market now have Apple in their sites.
It is true that Apple's
It is true that Apple's taking on more and more players in more and more markets (many with huge staffs and resources all over the world) and none of them want their lunch eaten, and while A, Inc. is wildly profitable it is worth remembering they had to pull staff off Leopard to get their fledgling phone off the ground.
And may have the most lawyers on retainer per $ of sales of any corp its size, given all the class actions and infringement suits.
Can they truly keep muscling into PC market share, refreshing all models, entering missing segments (mid range/ultraportable), reaching SMB and even Enterprise channels effectively and ramping up unit production?
While fighting the online music and video wars (where they've ruffled many, many feathers and put fear into the hearts of their partners/competitors), expanding their line of (smart)phone products (one model does NOT fit all, and cell manufacturers will find ways around Apples "200 patents" to deliver many of the same or new features, and dump product without an unsubsidized sales tag).
And the browser wars. I'm not giving up FireFox anytime soon.
And the MP3 wars (not much problem here for awhile actually).
And the server and server OS markets.
And the pro sound, video, and image software cauldron.
And the entry level apps wars (iLife, iWorks)?
And the not seeming TOO smug and Marie Antoinetteish while doing it all media wars.
Lots of balls for Steve to juggle (while keeping a big hand in at Disney/Pixar).
So maybe, but pride does goeth before something in many cases.
The only fleeting experience
The only fleeting experience with Vista I had was when we got an HP laptop for my Mom. It came with Vista. I have tried to connect that thing to a Wi-Fi a few times with no success. I mean it would see the router but it wouldn't want to connect to it. After spending a few weeks tinkering in the settings and reading multipage articles on Vista's networiking woes, I finally fixed it......... with a version of Ubuntu 7.10 (Gutsy Gibbon). First try and the computer was on the internet. If that is the average experience for people out there, I think Apple will look much more attractive to a much wider audience out there. With Apple's initial higher price ($949.00 Refurbished MacBook vs $698.00 Costco HP) offsetting the clear advantage in Operating System I believe it will gain about 5-6% next year as soon as more people will start getting tired with Vista's crap.
I've been in IT for 20 years
I've been in IT for 20 years and always had a windows machine(well apart from my commodore 64). For 5 years I sold Linux software solutions for a large 3 letter multinational and in all that time I always admired the design and function of Apple's Mac's. I didn't know much about the OS, except when they shipped OSX - then things started to get interesting as I was doing Linux then.
I am now in the process of getting a Mac Book Pro(yeah I know, upgrade imminent), but Apple needs to 'convert' more of us on the edge to boost its marketshare. That is a hard call. Lots of reasons for resisting Apple's call - your office only provides/uses Windows PC's; at home you might therefore use Windows; investment in printers/scanners/etc. that might not work with OSX; lots more reasons.
That said, I think Apple is the strongest position I have seen them for years and MS has definitely stumbled with Vista. If Apple can garner a further 2-5% of the market, then that is a very big deal. Oh and about bloody time too ! ;-)
living in Asia, and seeing
living in Asia, and seeing how the market is developing at this end; I imagine that the only way Apple can get that 10% increase, is if it takes Europe and Asia pretty seriously starting right now.
Mac's are (for all their brilliance) still pretty low awareness in large parts of Asia, for example, and there's about 3 billion people in Asia, or say, on average, 750 million families, of which maybe a third will look for a new computer or the like over the next two years. Apple needs to be able to reach the ones who can afford to buy Macs from this set, but I don't think they're doing that so far.
you've asked an ambiguous
you've asked an ambiguous question--or, at least, your answers are ambiguous. Assume apple has a 7% share in a given market: by 5% increase, do you mean the new market share would be 7.35%? or 12% Technically, i think the first is the correct interpretation, but given the range of answers you've offered, it seems you might have meant the second.
fwiw, i think apple's u.s. non-business market share will increase about 20% next year--that is, it'll be 20% larger at year's end than at the beginning (NOT 20 percentage points higher)
Market Share increases
Market Share increases wouldn't be 2-4 % if Apple already has 6%
Explanation not necessary.
Common sense is.
Just to second what Terry
Just to second what Terry Dunham says above, the question isn't clear.
Do you mean an increase of x% on the current share?
Or an increase TO x% share of the market?
If half your readers think the former, and half the latter, the results will be useless, which is shame coz this is a good question.
All i'm gonna say is "THIS
All i'm gonna say is "THIS IS APPLES TIME TO SHINE AND THEY WILL" all you have to do is look at the stock market and windows vista. I work for newegg and we have had more than 20% of users that buy a windows vista laptop/desktop are also purchasing a copy of windows xp either with the purchase or within 3 weeks of purchasing. So in 2 years time when applications refuse to run on xp and people have no choice Mac os X or windows Vista who do you think they are going to pick? I have been a MCSE certified IT consultant for the past 15 years and have never seen Microsoft so close to being put on its knees trying to get people to use its newest operating system.
It's clear to me that Mac's
It's clear to me that Mac's share of users is growing - how fast is anybody's guess. Purely anecdotal evidence suggests that Mac will be at 10% by the end of 2007. Nearly everyone I know that's considering the purchase of a new computer is leaning toward Mac, for all the reasons one would expect.
through universities
through universities everybody seems to be using macs now. I think they'll kick ass this year and blow Vista down to crummy little pieces. It will take some time for them to get into the big shabby companies but they're getting there sooner or later. It's apple picking time now...
Apple really need to have a
Apple really need to have a decent headless Mac to make the most out of Vista defectors. An upgraded Mac mini or a downgraded and downsized Mac Pro so that current PC tower users can keep their old keyboards, displays etc. Also, they need to do it for around the £350-£400 mark (I'm not sure what that worksout to in dollars probably around $500) then people would really be tempted to pay the extra few hundred more than what Vista costs to get new (gorgeous) hardware, OSX AND iLife and use their tower as what it's designed for, a doorstop.
Sorry...did I say designed?
Sorry...did I say designed? I meant cobbled together.
Let's see. %10 increase of a
Let's see. %10 increase of a %8 market share still means less than %9 by the end of 2008. I think Apple will pass %10 in the US by then.
However, 2009 will be interesting. Apple may release a tablet device and improve Apple TV in 2008. But I think 2009 will be the year Apple will make a big effort to get into the corporate market. All the pieces are pretty much in place. Once the iPhone gore into auto-pilot mode - like the iPod has - Apple will be free to work on software and tools to crack open the corporate market.
If successful, I wouldn't be surprised in Mac market share will climb to %20 in five years.
Microsoft has really
Microsoft has really stumbled with Vista. For example, I tried to connect to a VPN on a Microsoft server and failed. I got an error message asking me to check if the computer was on! However, the enterprise and government markets are locked down. Microsoft will ride it out with XP.
Apple will get more market share, but there are limits. The US military alone has as many Microsoft-powered computers as a medium-sized country, and they switch versions, let alone platforms, very, very slowly.
The real issue here is not market share, because Microsoft and Apple don't directly compete. Microsoft does not manufacture computers or own a chain of stores. Apple doesn't make software for other manufacturer's hardware. Dell and Apple don't directly compete. Dell does not write software for its hardware and has to support software they didn't write.
The real issue is profitability. Apple is in a high mark-up hardware business, they write and thus understand their software, they have a chain of stores that keep all the money in the company and is in complete control of its customer service. Microsoft is in a low mark-up business, dependent on computer manufacturers for most of their sales and on partners and OEMs for customer support. Dell is always playing catch-up. They have to build machines and support customers on an operating system they didn't write. Neither Microsoft nor Dell can completely control their user's experience.
Apple's profits will go through the roof while Microsoft and Dell will just muddle along.
Business sector aside...All
Business sector aside...All I know is that in any Apple store I walk into (in the UK) it's jam packed with kids...Not Tech Geeks or Mac Fans but plain old teenage kids...granted they are checking email and surfing for free...but they seem to love the kit. Can't envisage a MS store having the same allure. Actually can't envisage a MS store at all! This must bode well for Apple's market share 5-10 years?
I think around 5 percent
I think around 5 percent would be viable - as they say it's a marathon not a sprint. What Apple has - it's crown jewel is a core OS that can be a platform. Be it Apple TV, Computers, iPod or Iphone - at the end of the day the OS X core is there- combined with the end-to-end distrubtion model pioneered in iTunes Apple have a powerful set of tools at their disposal.
Apple's really gift is that they do everything, and whilst Mr Dell (I'd close the company and give the shareholders money back - he's like a bad Santa) may have predicted that doing it all was not the way to go Apple have proven them wrong. As Above- the number of kids that love Apple is growing- and it's this mindshare that is going to be making the decisions in later life for companies.
I predict Apple will start to push OS X server bigger in the next few releases, with the coming core increases in processors, and a UNIX based core- Apple could really score here with the all in one approach... Imagine server software that comes with a Database Engine, Blog, Mail and Video Conference engine built in - ?
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