Where Did All of the PCs Go? The Blue Skies IDC Q207 Figures for Apple Seem Low

Thu, 07/19/2007 - 01:23 — Seth Weintraub

IDG

Can these figures (also see bottom) be right? I mean yes it's amazing Dell is tanking and where it is leaving the bargain basement PC market, HP is picking things up. Amazing is the wrong word. Boring is what I was looking for. 

The strange thing for me is that Apple is only at 5.6 percent.  Yes, Apple's market share is increasing year over year at three times the industry average - which seems like very good news.  However, the 5.6% figure seems incredibly low considering my day to day observations.  I recently took a road trip from New York to Milwaukee with long stops in Cleveland and Chicago.  I saw Macintosh everywhere.  Even at rest stops along the highway.  A Cleveland Starbucks had three Macs for every PC and the AppleStore there was hopping (and this was pre-iPhone).  One of my parent's friends had just got a Mac (and was of course asking for help with it).  In Chicago, the French Consulate had just rolled out Macs in the waiting area.  My wife's family is like 95% Mac now where they had only PCs four years ago.  OK, I may have had something to do with that.  But Best Buy and what's left of CompUSA are slanging Macintoshes like there is no tomorrow.

The global market, where Apple didn't make the top five vendors and is probably sitting at 3%, is no different.  I work for an international governing body in Paris.  Sure, our office is mostly standardized on commodity PCs (yours truly, the Big Boss and one designer holdout notwithstanding).  However, more than a few employees including most of the management and IT staff use Macs at home and more frequently those machines are coming to work.

So what gives?

  1. Perhaps Macs are more visible?  People put their Macs on display and flaunt them whereas they seem to hide their PCs in the basement or in the closets.  Design is a big factor here.  How many offices have flashy new iMacs at the front of the office or with the receptionist but are running commodity machines in the back?
  2. Apple seems to have a much higher market share in the laptop market, where people tend to bring their computers with them and what other people tend to see more of.  I think Apple is at over 12 percent in the US, which is more than double its overall percentage.  Laptops are brought with people to lunches, airports, meetings, friends houses after school, college class, etc. etc. 
  3. Apple is strong in Education.  There is a lot of mixing and mingling in the education world so there are a lot more eyeballs on Macs porportionately speaking.  Also high school and college kids are "out there" in the cafes, coffee shops and libraries.  Those kids are also the trend setters so what they do often get noticed more than your average Joe on the street.  As an example, my Master's degree program was 90% Mac.  So much so that the people with PCs were sometimes embarrassed to be using them.
  4. Hollywood has always been Mac-addicted - to the point that I do a doubletake whenever I see a PC on the screen.  This has been the case since Seinfeld had the Mac and bizarro Jerry had the PC.  So perhaps my brain is factoring all of these views into my calculation of real life figures.
  5. Apple advertises like crazy.  Mostly iPods and iPhones obviously but still, seeing that Apple logo everywhere has to be messing with my mind.
  6. Speaking of iPhones, do they count?  What about the new iPods?  They will all run OSX, right?  80GB of storage?  That's a high end PC a few years ago.  Probably not.  But those things are everywhere! 
  7. I am mostly in Apple's strongholds.  Most of my time is spent in Paris - a city with an abnormally high priority on aesthetics and art.   The results of my
    super-informal study are limited to my immediate surroundings - typically IT savvy, urban,
    liberal, big city with the 20-35 year old crowd.  I have the same issue
    finding George Bush voters too - but that is for another website.
      

So I guess 5.6% of the US PC market is good.  Most likely Apple will soon be the #3 (#1 in my heart Apple - who loves ya?!) computer maker behind HP and Dell as they have almost surpassed Gateway and are on a upward trajectory.   The world is catching on too.  Apple Stores are opening all around the World and more and more people are being exposed to this ridiculously great alternative to Windows.  

Will Apple's market share ever meet the shadow it casts over the industry?  Probably not, I guess it depends  who is counting.

Top 6 Vendors, United States PC Shipments*, Second Quarter 2007
(Preliminary)
(Units Shipments are in thousands)

Rank

Vendor

2Q07

Shipments

Market

Share

2Q06

Shipments

Market

Share

2Q07/2Q06

Growth

1

Dell

4,854

28.4%

5,437

34.1%

-10.7%

2

HP

4,023

23.6%

3,193

20.0%

26.0%

3

Gateway

965

5.6%

1,039

6.5%

-7.1%

4

Apple

960

5.6%

761

4.8%

26.2%

5

Toshiba

901

5.3%

600

3.8%

50.0%

6

Acer

888

5.2%

337

2.1%

163.8%

Others

4,492

26.3%

4,569

28.7%

-1.7%

All Vendors

17,083

100.0%

15,936

100.0%

7.2%

Comments

Choosey People Choose Mac

One reason why Dell and HP have such a high market share is due to the bargain PC sales. Many, many people who don't really care what their PC looks like or how fast it is as long as it's $300 with monitor and printer and can be used to surf the web and type just buy the cheapest thing they see.

I'm always amazed at the people buying $600 PCs at Wal*Mart that will probably take 15 minutes to boot Vista and be trash in less than a year. For only slightly more they could have a dual core MacBook.

market share vs share being USED

I think some of the reason these numbers seem skewed is PC purchases are often for machines that aren't used as desktops per se. Servers, cash registers, machine controllers, etc. That combined with a typically shorter useful life makes the PC sales seem more impressive. It would be nice if there were a more useful metric that shows how many Macs/PCs are in use as general purpose computers. I think this is one reason the notebook sales for Apple look great. These machines are used by people as general purpose computers and and not bought and hidden in a room or tied to a milling machine somewhere.
Things are much better for Apple than these numbers show.
Also note the industry's growth rate of 7.2% includes Apple's 26.2% increase pulling the average up. The PC industry's growth rate was LOWER than 7.2%.

Home vs Corporate users

The vast majority of PCs are headed into cubicle farms and offices, or POS applications. They are bought as a commodity by IT managers (in fact, they are often leased rather than bought). Apple doesn't attempt to compete in this market.

What I'd really like to see is Apple's market %age for computers in the home, or those bought by individuals instead of in bulk.

What's important is not maket share, but market capitalisation ! Apple's far surpasses Dell's, even though Dell dwarves Apple in terms of the number of units shipped. ie. Apple is vastly more profitable per device sold. ∴ Apple has no need to slug it out in these cutthroat bargain basement markets.

As Fake Steve put it - Dell's problem is that it started a race to the bottom (of the market), and won!

u are right

The trend is obvious to trend-conscious persons such as the author of this article. Yes, the switch is on, but most people still can't see it, and journalists won't write about it until its become a mainstream idea that people want to hear. Apple is so far ahead of the curve, its amazing that they could pull this off, but in the end, Apple is about the future and Windows is about the past, and in technology, the past can only keep its strangle-hold for so long, then it must fall like a dead dinosaur. And you are also right about the analogy to Bush, another dinosaur that will fall, hopefully, before too much more damage is done to the world.

corporate sales

Most computers in the world are not sold to individuals. They are sold to corporations. That's why the high market percentages for Windows machines.

You nailed it.

You nailed it.

Corporate & Education

The same holds true in Education. Students are flocking to macs as are some faculty who know what they want also go the Mac route, but My University continues to operate 1000+ seats of a computer labs and refuses to buy a Mac. Most IT folks are afraid of Macs (probably because they know their job isn't secure once users can service their own machines 90% of the time). It would be interesting to see a figure for retail/private users - people buying computers for their own use. That's where I think mac is making huge inroads. And that will eventually flow to the IT department, although with web-based computing, choosing between Windows and Mac is less of an issue for standard office Apps.

Irrelevant Statistic

There are more Macs in use than can be indicated by the "US PC Shipments" statistic, since Macs have longer useful life than IBM PCs. For example my G4 Cube (circa 2000) is still in use and runs Mac OS X 10.4.10 (the latest version of Mac OS X). Can you show an Year 2000 IBM PC that can run Windows Vista?

Further, most of the IBM PC sales are replacements to existing Wintel machines that need to replaced every two to three years to keep up with demands of the increasing power hungry Windows releases.

Apple Store Sales?

It hasn't been specifically mentioned, but these numbers may not include sales at Apple stores, or may not accurately reflect sales at Apple stores. Apple doesn't tell anybody its unit sales until its quarterly announcement.

When Apple makes its financial announcement on July 25, THEN we'll know for sure.

The numbers announced today for Apple may be waaaaaaaaaaay below what we hear next week.

The average officer worker

The average officer worker or hospital receptionist doesn't have a clue what OS his or her computer is running. I suspect that's why the Windows stickers are slapped on pcs. Otherwise they would never know. These make up the majority of the pcs sold, I'm sure. I'd really like to know the market share for those who actually chose their computer. I'm sure it would be getting on for 50%.

As for the Bush voter question, I talked to an American marine the other day. I've never seen anything quite like it. For this guy, Bush was sitting on God's shoulders, Bush couldn't do a thing wrong. The conversation was amicable, consisting mostly of me asking questions and the jaw dropping further with each robotic answer. I guess these must be the majority that voted for him.

I've just had a thought! Maybe there's a similarity here - Windows users and Bush voters!

John Davis

Windozers and Bush Voters

The average officer worker or hospital receptionist doesn't have a clue what OS his or her computer is running. I suspect that's why the Windows stickers are slapped on pcs. Otherwise they would never know. These make up the majority of the pcs sold, I'm sure. I'd really like to know the market share for those who actually chose their computer. I'm sure it would be getting on for 50%.

As for the Bush voter question, I talked to an American marine the other day. I've never seen anything quite like it. For this guy, Bush was sitting on God's shoulders, Bush couldn't do a thing wrong. The conversation was amicable, consisting mostly of me asking questions and the jaw dropping further with each robotic answer. I guess these must be the majority that voted for him.

I've just had a thought! Maybe there's a similarity here - Windows users and Bush voters!

John Davis

Macs in higher ed

Apple is coming on strong in the education department. A friend at college rooms with five others. They all have MacBooks. A couple of years ago only one had a Mac.

I'm a Bush voter and also a

I'm a Bush voter and also a Mac lover. Give up the politics when we could be focusing on our Macs.

idiot

Obviously the author knew that some idiot would come in complaining - that's why they said "not for discussion here- it is for another blog.

...but since you brought it up...You are a fucking idiot. Never has a president been so thoroughly wrong on just about every decision he's made. Don't believe me? How about the money markets. When he was sworn into office the dollar was higher than the Euro. Now it is at $1.4/1 Euro.

Basically Bush has drained the US of 1/2 of its wealth.

He relies on people like you to be "patriotic" (Nevermind he is a draft dodger) Don't get me started...

idiot.

enjoy your mac

I also wonder why people

I also wonder why people don't make a worthwhile investment in their computers. I mean come on - who would rather spend $600 every two years when they could spend $1000 and have it last them for five . . . or more! It just doesn't make sense.

However, I also don't see the need for Apple to have huge marketshare because that would mean they'd have to start selling $300 bargain trash to Joe computer user who doesn't understand why computers should be an investment. To sell computers like THAT would sacrifice the Mac experience. You can't buy a new Mac that doesn't run the OS and all its apps smoothly. They all have adequate processing power, memory, and storage for their place in the lineup. I love that. If you buy a $400 laptop, is it going to have wireless, bluetooth, a bright, clear display, and dual processors? No. Is it going to be lightweight, beautiful, and have a high-capacity battery? Hell no! If that's what you want, go for it. To have options is a great thing. I would rather save my money and buy the machine that will last; one that does everything it's capable of well. That's what I love about Apple - it's the perfect niche for me. I think that a lot of others would be happy to have it be their niche, too.

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