About yesterday's announcement...

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 7:44am — Seth Weintraub

Just some thoughts, feel free to chime in with your own in the comments section.

As some people have stated, this isn't just about Apple. Macworld (the event, not the website/magazine) is in big trouble. They have lost their headliner - which has been the anchor for 25 years. As Apple has left other Expos (Macworld East, Apple Expo Paris, NAB, etc) attendance has waned and some are closing up shop. This year is a done deal. Most people have already booked/bought Macworld tickets for 2009. How many fewer attendees and exhibitors will be on hand for 2010? It will be a shadow of itself despite their best efforts to show otherwise. The economy certainly doesn't help. You also have to wonder if Belkin, Adobe, etc. knew of Jobs' absence when they decided not to be present.
Steve Jobs' health will obviously be called into question yet again. No matter how personal a matter it is, it does have a huge impact on the company - no one can dispute that. While everyone should have a right to privacy about their well being, every piece of information about Steve's health will be now pored over with a fine-tooth comb (like it wasn't already). Many people have a lot invested – literally and figuratively – in Apple, so the curiosity is natural. If Steve Jobs needs total privacy, he unfortunately will have to give up his role at Apple.
There probably aren't going to be any ground-breaking devices at this year's show. It isn't just the economy, but the downturn doesn't help. Apple hardly wants to unveil the next big thing in a time when people aren't spending. There have already been reports of flat or lowering estimates of Apple sales. Also, don't expect to see that ARM netbook or tablet. It will be incremental upgrades, some entertainment announcements. Otherwise Jobs, unless on his deathbed, would present no matter what was going on behind the scenes with IDG. We'd opt for no big announcements.
There is also the question of whether things are good between IDG and Apple. Apple's PR statement rings pretty true; they've been pulling out of all of their traditional events over the past decade. However, the timing and finality of this announcement seems pretty unusual.
Whether Jobs is sick or not, he is signaling a reduced role in the company. All the signs are there. In recent events he has been taking on a smaller and smaller roll, while propping up those around him. Although scary for Apple fans/followers/investors, perhaps the big announcement at Macworld will be Steve Jobs quitting his day to day role at the company.

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Comments

I think Apple is going to

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 7:58am — Lorenz (not verified)

I think Apple is going to release something in the contrary to go against the downturn..

This is good. Now Apple can

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 8:22am — 9to5Mac Noob (not verified)

This is good. Now Apple can release products when they're ready instead of being forced to pull something out of thin air to meet some deadline they don't control.

MacWorld isn't the big story.

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 8:28am — 9to5Mac Noob (not verified)

MacWorld isn't the big story. Its a distraction. The big story is Jobs.

I second this.

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 9:36am — 9to5Mac Noob (not verified)

I second this.

It makes sense to me that

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 8:34am — JohnnyK (not verified)

It makes sense to me that Steve has been giving up the floor more and more. I don't think he's taking a diminished role, he just doesn't want to be in the spotlight as much anymore. They don't want the stock going up and down every time he wipes his ass, and they certainly don't want the company to fold if/when something bad does happen to Steve.

quote: "Whether Jobs is sick

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 8:36am — Luis Alejandro Masanti (not verified)

quote:
"Whether Jobs is sick or not, he is signaling a reduced role in the company. All the signs are there. In recent events he has been taking on a smaller and smaller roll, while propping up those around him. Although scary for Apple fans/followers/investors, perhaps the big announcement at Macworld will be Steve Jobs quitting his day to day role at the company."

I do not know why you conclude that! Jobs has [had?] a "high external exposure" in keynotes, but he has [continue to have] a biggest involvent in the decision making process within the company.

As a matter of facts, a couple of week ago, the news said that "it is his decision what makes a song into a commercial!"

Jobs is "leaving out the stage"... but neither the company nor the day-to-day work.

We can also point out that in the last 1-2 years "he has asumed a more direct contact-by-internet roll" (about music, mobileMe, etc....)

Once again, I do not follow you from "no more MW keynote" to "no more Apple."

I think Apple will release

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 8:39am — talkingfuture (not verified)

I think Apple will release something when its ready, maybe late Jan, February or later. They aren't tied to IDG's schedule anymore.

i was thinking about this

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 8:43am — Peruchito (not verified)

i was thinking about this whole situation a few days ago (before this announcement). too many people are expecting too much from apple too quickly. its as if every major event apple is suppose to introduce a mind blowing product. if the don't, their rep goes down. which doesn't make sense. apple is a small company. they can only do so much, and growing too fast would cost them more in quality.

so i pondered and pondered, but could not figure a solution.

looks like apple has, and when i think about it, it makes perfect sense. now apple controls the pace of product introductions.

as per the whole steve jobs thing. i don't understand the big deal. the guys is OLD. he will eventually leave. why would anyone be surprised that he is slowly taking on less of a role? you want him to work at all 24/7 until he is 100 yrsold?

Yes dang nabbit!

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 8:54am — Olternaut (not verified)

Yes dang nabbit!

I think it's a good thing for

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 11:05am — 9to5Mac Noob (not verified)

I think it's a good thing for Steve Jobs to slowly prepare for a day when Apple doesn't have him at the helm. This time around, he gets to do it on his own terms. The last time he left he got the boot and shareholders put in a "management" team.

There are some really important lessons from this: Great management doesn't always mean a big name MBA with years as CxO at some big firm. In the case of Jobs it has meant someone with a vision and the willpower to make that vision happen.

Most importantly for Steve Jobs 2.0 has been that he has had the opportunity to build up a management team around him of like-minded people.

The true test of a great manager is not the fact that he runs his company well. No, it's whether that company can run well even in his absence. To what extent do people follow Steve Jobs because he has sold them on his vision, on his passion, on his approach or to what extent do they follow him out of fear? If it is more the former than the latter then there should be no fear of Steve Jobs leaving Apple. If it is more the latter then, yes, there is much to be feared of Steve Jobs leaving Apple.

Go read the Baghavad Gita.

Steve Jobs 1.0 clearly ruled by fear. It remains to be seen what Steve Jobs 2.0 has truly accomplished. For those close to the heat, I'm sure they've got a sense of this. For everyone else, be sure you've got some puts on your AAPL just in case. A little insurance on the downside could end up going a long way.

I told ya so :-)

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 8:50am — Steve Consilvio (not verified)

I'm glad Apple took my advice, but it remains to be seen if IDG will.

I blogged about this change over a year ago, but I suggested it probably three or four years ago originally.

http://www.theappleloop.com/Home/macworld.html

Apple never should have been so tightly integrated with the Steve Jobs persona, btw. There was a reason why he was fired! Reality distortion fields are not a good thing. His ego has long been bigger than the quality of the products offered.

like it or not....

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 8:57am — Olternaut (not verified)

Like it or not thats EXACTLY what was done and what saved the company.
Steve Jobs. The co-creater of the freakin personal computer itself!

You are correct. Steve used

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 11:14am — 9to5Mac Noob (not verified)

You are correct. Steve used the cult of his personality to restore the Apple brand and rejuvenate Apple employees.

But let's not also forget the awesome products these people also brought to market.

It's time to start looking at Act III here: the transformation of Apple into its own being through the sublimation of Steve Jobs.

Seriously.

It is not gonna be the same!

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 9:10am — tmack (not verified)

I go to Macworld every year as my "geek vacation'. It kind of sucks that it will never be like it was. I understand the reasoning, but what about us Mac-geeks that followed like rats to the Pied-Piper every year? Of course this would be announced after I already bought my pass! The one to see the keynote no less!

pissing contest

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 9:12am — bellhaven (not verified)

I don't think this is anything more than a Steve Jobs pissing contest with IDG. It wreaks of the MW Boston/NYC thing. The timing, and then the added little F-U of saying that Steve won't even do the keynote. Even if Apple didn't have a product ready for MW doesn't mean they wouldn't have announced something ahead of time, like they did with AppleTV and iPhone. I'm sure that there will be nothing mind blowing now though.

More than likely, Apple made some request that IDG disagreed with, and Steve decided to show that he can crush them. Now that Gates won't be doing CES keynotes anymore, it wouldn't shock me in the least to see Jobs take up that role.

I believe there'll be some

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 9:37am — apple ink (not verified)

I believe there'll be some software launches.. possibly iTMS launches in other countries, DRM Free music from alot of labels [yeah] and the new Intel i7 making it to some macs!

I also expect some more news on Jobs' current state both health wise and at Apple!

Well What about CES

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 9:50am — Yo Daddy (not verified)

After long battles to get market share Apple has finally taken a bite from it biggest falling competitor. Now as far as hoopla is concerned, Apple has better odds attending CES and competing neck/neck and distract from those already presenting.

It started removing from NAB, EuroExpo and NY. Ramped up internal 100+ press releases. Invited more Apple fans to stores to witness events. Now they have the opportunity to mask off the competition (if any) by stomping on their back yard. Imagine CES and E3 where Apple emerges the most attended booth/exhibition. Apple Expo you attract fans and cultists. At CES and E3 you force people to switch on the spot.

Just speculation. Apple may release yet another AppleUverse where MacWorld served as a pilot for classes and learning new technologies (not to mention for bloggers to decipher Apple's slip of the tongue on new products) Now they can collect fees directly online through iTunes or at their Apple stores. The patents are in the wall for the switchable imac/tablet. touch keyboards with transitioning functions ie. keyboard, game consoles, extended desktop, musical instruments. They have the patents on 3D screens and a quasi Wii environment. Patents on an iTouch library of gestures. Patents on various tablets, iphone minis, mac mini, device central and wireless full integration from all devices. Short a full cloud media hub Apple has a road map that can be released within 1 year, 3 years or 5 years. They may all seem revolutionary. THE Problem is the competition is seeing their game plan through patents and they are jumping all resources on launching their own devices HP is a perfect example of a dream that look nice but under performs.

Steve's sick... So what, so have many other actors, politicians and public figures. If he dies he has a great legacy he has left behind. He left a generic blueprint through patents that will keep Apple afloat. The rate things are going their 24+Billion in the bank will guarantee any investor pullout in case of his demise (forgive my bluntness) I for one have family members that have lived and died from cancer and those that survived are going through the Jobs process. It took them 5 years to get back on track with their weight, pains (there are plenty) bodily discomforts and work. So I'm not knocking the Jobs. I'm not killing MacWorld. I'm embracing the fact that Apple has been future minded focused on the present and that has ultimately been Apple's success.

So to all the crazy ones remember this.

"You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. About the only thing you can't do is ignore them. Because they change things. They push the human race forward."

Dude, I think your intro

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 11:22am — 9to5Mac Noob (not verified)

Dude, I think your intro answered your question.

Why would Steve want to take over the sinking ships of CES and E3? Don't you recall E3 was practically canceled this past year?

All the trade shows are tanking, not just Mac World.

Why would Steve want to "step in" to take over for Gates? Fuck Gates. Fuck his keynote. Steve can do a keynote whenever he wants and he's got 20 sites live blogging from the audience saving him the money of having to stream it live over the internet himself. He'll podcast it later on those cheap Akamai pipes.

CES and E3 are both hurting. Let companies like Sony and HP and Dell waste their time competing with each other to get a message out during the same 4 or 5 or 7 day period. What a waste. Apple will do their own media event the week before in the lobby of their HQ and it will destroy any hope people at CES and E3 have of getting their message out.

Isn't that what happened last time?

IDG is toast. E3 is toast. CES is toast. Have you ever met these trade show people? They're dirt bags. Why waste your time and let those scum meddle with your stock price?

It's time to take out the trash and that's exactly what Apple is doing here.

I think this is good news.

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 10:51am — Another Steve (not verified)

I think this is good news. Obviously there's nothing major coming in January, so Steve is saving his presence for future things. Imagine him getting really old and doing webcasts from his sitting room, by the fire, introducing new products or even just new ideas. It's sad to let go of, but ultimately for the best :)

Tradeshows are dead, long live the tradeshow

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 11:44am — Michael (not verified)

Like many others have said, this decision is based on a number of factors.

Tradeshow cost vs. return - we laugh at historical references to people who scoffed at the automobile replacing the horse. Tradeshows are simply outmoded communications platforms and attaining any kind of ROI is unthinkable.

Ownership of the message - IDG runs MacWorld, not Apple. By saving upwards of $10MM on their MacWorld presence Apple can invest in other means of distributing their news - means they can control much more tightly.

Product timing - I always though January was the absolute worst time to build new products expectations as you're basically robbing holiday anticipation. Now product development no longer has to consider MacWorld some sort of hype deadline.

More ramblings: http://tinyurl.com/6yduqj

A lot of wishful thinking

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 2:16pm — 9to5Mac Noob (not verified)

Mr. Jobs deserves to retire when he chooses as I hope we all will be able to. I'm not concerned about his retirement. Rather what will happen afterwards.

How many of you work for corporations that are not bureaucracies? In the U.S., the larger a company becomes the less it remembers what made the company large - customers/consumers. It focuses on making the shareholders more money, at any cost. Innovation is one of the first casualties in such an environment - costs too much money.

How long did it take for Apple to nose dive after Steve first departed?

Regards timing

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 2:18pm — 9to5Mac Noob (not verified)

If you look at Apple's withdrawals from Macworld Paris, Macworld Boston/New York, Macworld Tokyo, and NAB, you'll find that they're not at all dissimilar from their withdrawal from Macworld San Francisco.

Each was proceeded by a week or two of speculation about when would the Steve Jobs keynote be announced. Followed by much wailing and gnashing of teeth when it was instead announced that Jobs wouldn't do the keynote. And in several cases, was withdrawing from the show.

They didn't always make the announcement so final. But in this instance, IDG holds no other hostages, so Apple can speak its full intent.

reinharden

The big news in...

Wed, 12/17/2008 - 2:46pm — 9to5Mac Noobian (not verified)

hardware will be a Apple setop with HDMI and Tivo XL-like capabilities. The big news in software will be Snow Leopard will be available in March, 2009.

The big news for the company will be that Steve will not do the keynote at WWDC 2009 either but will still maintain firm control of the day-to-day decisions at Apple.

The big news for MacWorld will be that this is the last one. Hold on to your badges as they will sell great on ebay! :)