iPhone sales March 4

AAPL: 103.01

1.51
Stock Chart

IDC’s latest quarterly mobile phone tracker contains a mix of good news and bad for Apple. It starts by noting that 2015 was a fantastic year for the company in terms of both sales numbers and average selling price.

2015 was a tremendous year for Apple and the iPhone as shipments hit a new record of 231.5 million for growth of 20.2% over 2014, which was nearly double that of the overall smartphone market. More importantly, Apple was able to grow its ASP from $663 in 2014 to $713 in 2015.

Things get tougher this year, it suggests, forecasting flat sales for the year (or a drop of 0.1% if we wanted to pretend that forecasts could ever be that accurate) …

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iPhone sales January 8

AAPL: 96.96

0.51
Stock Chart

Apple shares yesterday closed below $100 for the first time in 15 months, the WSJ noting that the value of the company has dropped by $100B in a little over a month, losing 7% this week alone.

The Cupertino company’s 4.2% drop on the day was greater than the overall market’s slide and the 3% slump in the Nasdaq Composite, which closed down 10% from its May peak. Since early December, Apple has shed $100 billion in market value.

The slide is being attributed to two factors: one (semi-)factual, one speculative …

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9to5toys 

iPhone sales January 6

AAPL: 100.70

-2.01
Stock Chart

[Update 2Reuters reports that Foxconn has published an earnings report showing a 20% fall in December revenues. However, the company says that its December earnings were “as expected,” and its full-year earnings are up 6.42% on the previous year, only marginally short of analyst expectations of 7%.]

[Update 1: StreetInsider reports that Foxconn has denied reports that workers started their lunar new year holiday early, and says that the government payout relates to ‘an insurance premium,’ but makes no reference to any response to the claim that it has been laying off workers.]

The WSJ is today suggesting that Apple is scaling back iPhone orders, noting that iPhone manufacturer Foxconn has been laying off workers and has received a $12.6M subsidy from the Chinese government through a program designed to minimize unemployment.

The piece notes that the subsidy is for Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant, which is mostly devoted to iPhone production, and says that Apple has also reduced order forecasts for iPhone component makers.

Chinese iPhone factories had some idle capacity in the final two months of the calendar year, when they would typically be racing to chongliang, or “rush quantity,” for Apple, in factory-speak. Some workers at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory in inland China were let go on early holiday last month, one of the people involved in the supply said, although the typical new-year holiday season doesn’t start until February.

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iPhone sales December 14, 2015

AAPL: 112.48

-0.70
Stock Chart

Update: Fortune reports that in a conference call, Huberty said her forecast was in part based on an estimated 10% drop in component orders. She noted that this could be due to robust inventories rather than weak demand, and that the numbers in the note were a ‘worst-case’ scenario. Huberty emphasized that she remains upbeat on Apple, citing a strong brand, loyal customers, R&D investment and other revenue streams compensating for weaker predicted iPhone sales.

[tweet https://twitter.com/philiped/status/676410189852078080 align=’center’]

The brand is strong. Customers are loyal. Gross margins are stable. R&D is going full tilt. And revenue streams from new products (Watch, Apple TV), apps, and media could start to make up for slowing iPhone growth.

An investment note by Morgan Stanley Katy Huberty predicts that Apple will see its iPhone sales fall by 5.7% in Apple’s 2016 financial year, reports Business Insider. The prediction is significant for two reasons: if realised, it would be the first time since the launch of the iPhone that sales have fallen year-on-year – and the forecast is made by a noted Apple bull.

Morgan Stanley thinks that Financial Year 2016 iPhones sales will be 218 million – a 5.7% drop — while Calendar Year 2016 sales will be 224,000 — a 2.9% drop. These predictions are significantly below Huberty’s previous estimates, of 247 million for FY2016 and 252 CY2016.

One of the reasons given isn’t new – high smartphone penetration in developed markets – but Huberty says there is a second reason …

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iPhone sales November 18, 2015

AAPL: 117.29

3.60
Stock Chart

A Goldman Sachs investment note argues that Apple has huge potential for generating more recurring revenue, suggesting an opportunity to generate an additional $7.6B a month, reports Business Insider. The company points to the rumored Apple TV subscription service as one future source of monthly revenue.

In a recurring revenue framework, we have constructed an average revenue per user (ARPU) metric that captures the installment plan pricing of the iPhone ($32/month), assumed installment plans for the other hardware products, and services (e.g. Music at $10/mo, TV at $40/mo) … 

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