Reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo at KGI Securities has today published a new research note in which he has some not-so-good predictions for how Apple will fare in the smartphone market during 2016. Kuo predicts that Apple, under the “worst case scenario,” could see iPhone shipments in 2016 lower than what it saw in 2014. Furthermore, Kuo anticipates that Apple will be the only top-five smartphone brand to see a decline in shipments year over year.
A KGI investment note seen by 9to5Mac suggests that Apple Watch shipments will fall by more than 25% this year. The note estimates 2015 sales at 10.6M units, and predicts that full-year shipments this year will be below 7.5M units. The fall would be even more dramatic in real terms, as it would be comparing 12 months of sales in 2016 against 8 months of sales last year.
The company cites two reasons for the forecast. First, that the wearable device market is still a fledgling one, not yet mature in terms of behaviour. But KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo also believes the Watch itself falls short …
In a research note for investors, KGI Securities has posted some interesting claims about the new 4 inch ‘iPhone SE’ coming from Apple in March, as reported by 9to5Mac. The iPhone SE is expected to be very similar to the iPhone 5s in appearance with slightly curved edges, but feature the latest processor internals, an A9 chip just like the iPhone 6s as well as Apple Pay and Live Photos.
KGI claims the phone will also feature a 12 megapixel camera, matching the latest iPhones in megapixels. KGI also believes the new 4 inch iPhone to sell between $400-$500 range. This would be a significantly cheaper phone than the current lineup: the year-old iPhone 6 starts at $549 …
KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo issued an AAPL investor report this morning that is mostly pessimistic on Apple’s prospects of meaningfully increasing iPhone and iPad sales in the first half of the year. The Taiwan-based investment analyst doesn’t see an upside to the release of the iPhone 5se or iPad Air 3 later this quarter, sees meaningful slowing in YoY 6S/Plus sales and isn’t yet excited about the iPhone 7… Expand Expanding Close
KGI’sMing-Chi Kuo is out with a set of research notes today highlighted by ‘iPad Air 3’ forecasts. Notably, the newest 9.7-inch Apple tablet is expected to be released in the 1st half of 2016, perhaps at the March event we’ve pinned to include the Apple Watch 2 with a possible appearance of the 4-inch iPhone 6c. The bad news is that like the iPad Pro, the new iPad Air 3 isn’t likely to have 3D Touch, which is a big part of the new iPhone 6s/Plus experience, according to the analyst… Expand Expanding Close
Apple Watch benefits from deeper blacks and greater energy efficiency thanks to OLED technology
Apple is expected to begin shifting iPhones from LCD displays to improved OLED screens starting in 2018, according toNikkei Asian Review. Currently the display technology is only used by Apple to produce Apple Watch displays while iPhones and iPads use older LCD technology. OLED benefits from greater contrast levels and much deeper blacks as the display only illuminates to present color. This offers energy efficiency that leads to improved battery life compared lighting up the entire display each time. Expand Expanding Close
Respected analyst Ming Chi-Kuo from KGI Securities has this evening issued an investor note in which he predicts sales for Apple’s latest tablet, iPad Pro. Kuo predicts in his note that Apple will sell between 2.4 million and 2.6 million iPad Pro units in the fourth quarter of 2015. As we head into 2016, Kuo expects those numbers to slide slightly to between 2.1 million units and 2.3 million units.
Theo Levey’s early iPhone 6 render wasn’t perfect, but it was usefully close
Reporting on future Apple products isn’t easy — it’s actually one of the biggest challenges in the world of technology journalism. Back in April 2011, The Verge’s predecessor (This Is My Next) ran a much-discussed report on the “iPhone 5,” which was claimed to be teardrop-shaped, with an enlarged, gesture-sensitive Home Button, and a bezel-less 3.7″ screen. NFC, inductive charging, and a speaker and sensors hidden behind the screen were also said to be possibilities for the new iPhone. Not surprisingly, the report lit up the Internet, generating a lot of attention (and over 500 comments) for a fledgling web site. Though some people were skeptical, accessory makers actually took the report seriously enough to manufacture cases matching the claims.
As it turned out, the report was wrong — very wrong. Exactly none of those features actually arrived in either the “iPhone 4S” Apple announced in October 2011, or the real “iPhone 5” that debuted in September 2012. The report also didn’t forecast actual iPhone design trends in any useful way. From my standpoint, that’s the critical difference between most Apple rumors and the ones that are actually worth caring about: some early information, even if it’s imprecise, can help you make a better buying decision about an Apple product today or six months down the line.
A small group of nitpickers — notably including people who are fed information directly by Apple, off-the-record — have been taking shots at people who report independently-researched rumors, attempting to undermine the value of big, “not from Apple” scoops versus small, “not (officially) from Apple” tidbits. This may be an inside baseball topic that most people really don’t care about, but it’s worth at least considering for a moment…
An investment note by KGI predicts that Apple will next week report year-on-year iPhone sales up 23.6% to 48.5M, but says that that holiday quarter sales will be down on last year, and that the decline will continue into the first quarter of next year.
KGI says that China is the big factor, included as a launch country this year, and hence contributing to calendar Q3/fiscal Q4 sales, while last year’s China sales fell into the holiday quarter. It estimates that 22M of the iPhones sold last quarter were the new iPhone 6s/Plus. Apple sold 47M iPhones in the previous quarter.
Despite the launch of the iPad Pro next month, both iPad and Mac sales will fall across all three quarters, predicts the report … Expand Expanding Close
Foursquare is tapping into its data of foot traffic for the first time to predict Apple’s iPhone sales as the new iPhone 6s and 6s Plus launch this weekend. The company notes that it has “the world’s largest database of information on the foot traffic of people around the globe,” courtesy of its app users that use the app to check-in at locations they visit. Expand Expanding Close
While the 4.7-inch iPhone 6s on some U.S. carriers is still available for delivery on the September 25th launch date, nearly all of the larger, 5.5-inch iPhone 6s Plus models are now scheduled to deliver in 3-4 weeks for new orders. According to KGI Securities, this is not entirely due to high demand for the largest iPhone model. According to a new note from the firm, the constraints are actually due to supply problems with the 6s Plus’s backlight hardware:
Although we may be just three days away from the unveiling of the iPhone 6S, which will mirror the iPhone 6 in appearance, KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is already looking forward to the iPhone after the iPhone 6S, which would be named ‘iPhone 7’ if Apple followed previous year trends. In the tock year, Apple has typically changed the way the iPhone looks externally and apparently 2016 will be no different. The report says the next iPhone will approach iPod touch levels of thinness, with a body between 6 and 6.5mm. For comparison, the current iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are 6.9 and 7.1mm respectively.
It also indicates that the next-generation iPhone will use the same Force Touch technology as the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 6S and 6S Plus as Apple suppliers have invested heavily in the feature for this year’s devices.
A report from the usually-reliable KGI has repeated many of the details from our exclusives on the iPhone 6S, but additionally offered support for an earlier rumor that the front camera will be upgraded to 5MP. Surprisingly, it also suggests that the rear camera lens may not be sapphire, as it has apparently failed drop tests.
Aside from upgrading rear camera module to 12MP, Apple will upgrade front camera module to 5MP […] The new iPhone may not be equipped with sapphire cover lens, as it still has quality issues on the drop test.
Although sapphire is much more scratch-resistant than Gorilla Glass, it is more brittle, and thus at greater risk of shattering when dropped.
The company also repeated its concerns that limited appeal of the new features, together with external economic factors, is likely to result in flat or negative sales growth … Expand Expanding Close
He expects the larger tablet to go in to production between September and October and that the stylus will be able to take advantage of the new iPad’s Force Touch-enabled screen. It’s being imagined as a feature which could help users more easily navigate the larger display of the iPad Pro. KGI has predicted an optional Lightning-charging stylus sold alongside the larger-screened iPad since earlier this year.
KGI – which has an excellent track record – has predicted a strong possibility of either zero or negative growth of iPhone sales in Q4 2015. The investment note cited by Taiwanese site Apple Daily (via GforGames) forecasts that Apple will sell between 65M and 75M iPhones, compared to 74.5M in the same quarter last year.
We predict iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S could be the first S-series models to see flat or lower shipments versus their predecessors.
KGI bases its pessimistic prediction on two factors. First, the weak state of the Chinese economy. Second, the very same argument I made in my opinion piece yesterday: that the headline feature of the iPhone 6S, Force Touch, doesn’t seem likely to wow customers … Expand Expanding Close
A new report out from KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo includes some interesting details about Apple’s planned fall product releases. Firstly, Kuo expects iPhone shipments to fall in the current quarter as anticipation builds for the new iPhone dubbed the ‘iPhone 6s’, although apparently ‘Force Touch yields are low’ which may constrict availability at the beginning. For Apple Watch, following a report earlier in the year to expect new materials for Apple Watch casings, Kuo claims Apple will launch new Apple Watch Sport color options to match the new iPhone.
This includes anodizing aluminum in either yellow gold or rose gold to match the gold options on the iPhone 6s and create a faux-Edition Sport model. Third-party coating services already exist for the Apple Watch (pictured above), but Apple’s additions would seemingly be for the aluminum, not steel models. KGI believes Apple shipped a “tepid” 3.9 million Apple Watch units to date.
There is also news of a new iPad mini covered in KGI’s report, as well as sales estimates for all of Apple’s products ahead of the earnings calls on Tuesday.
A new KGI research note predicts that production of the Apple Watch’s Taptic Engine component will begin to improve later this month, but slow demand has led to a downward revision of estimated shipments by 20-30%. The new estimate comes in at 5-6 million units shipped in the third quarter.
Combining that estimate with the data from last quarter has caused KGI to cut its annual shipment estimate in half. Where the general consensus previously predicted that Apple should ship 20-30 million smartwatches, the firm’s new number comes in at under 15 million.
A special Top 11 list today from noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on the next iPhone (6s? 7?) that will be released later this year. Counting down:
Force Touch will be the biggest upgraded selling point, but also one of the main bottlenecks of the supply chain. Force Touch can enrich user experience due to more input methods and support of handwritten signatures, which is beneficial for expanding in the commercial market
Screen will remain at 4.7 and 5.5 inches, with resolution the same as existing models. There will be no new 4-inch model
There will be an additional casing color, rose gold, matching the rose-gold Apple Watch Edition
The camera will have a pixel upgrade, likely to 12MP
One microphone will be added near the speaker to enhance voice quality
The A9 processor with upgraded 2GB LPDDR4 will be adopted
The bending issue will be improved by using different casing materials and internal mechanical design changes
If drop test issues can be resolved, the 5.5-inch model will have a limited number of units with sapphire cover lens
The recognition rate of Touch ID will be improved further in a bid to promote Apple Pay
Gesture control support
It’s expected that mass production will start in mid-to-late August. Total shipments will be 80-90mn in 2015, with a 2:1 ratio of 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch models.
KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the few analysts we feel credible, has his Apple numbers ready for Q1 2015. The analyst projects iPhone, iPad, and Mac shipments to be 58.2 million, 10.1 million, and 4.5 million respectively. He also estimates that Apple Watch shipments are currently at 631,000 units.
In a new report from KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo, the analyst claims that a new four inch iPhone is unlikely for 2015. This contradicts some recent reports and supposed 4-inch ‘6C’ case leaks, but KGI is generally more reliable than other analysts. We would still be wary of any such predictions however, given that mass production of iPhone models will not be started for a few months giving plenty of time for Apple to change plans.
KGI also notes that whilst the next-generation 4.7 and 5.5 inch iPhones will feature pressure-sensitive Force Touch technology, it will work differently to what customers will see in the Apple Watch, new MacBook and updated 13-inch Retina MacBook Pro.
KGI is out with a new report today predicting both a large rise in the number of Touch ID sensors shipped this year as well as an improved version of the biometric security reader for the next version of the iPhone. “We raise our 2015F shipments of Touch ID (fingerprint recognition) module by 12.4% to 262mn sets, up 77% YoY.” As for the updated Touch ID sensor, the improved version is believed to offer more reliable reads and better security as Apple continues to push Apple Pay, it’s recently launched mobile payment service: Expand Expanding Close
As we reported earlier this week, often reliable KGI is predicting that Apple will bring its in-house designed A-series processor to an entry-level Mac sometime in 2016 with TSMC and Samsung expected to fab the potential A9X and A10X chips, respectively. As the move to put non-Intel chips in the Mac lineup would be a departure for the company, CNBC asked Intel CEO Brian Krzanich about the chip-maker’s business plans with Apple… Expand Expanding Close
KGI Research’s Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the few analyst/firms with a respectable record on Apple forecasts, updated its iPhone sales expectation numbers this weekend for the holiday quarter and Q1 of 2015.
Strong iPhone shipments in 4Q14. We forecast overall iPhone shipments will surge 82% QoQ to 71.5mn units in 4Q14, given robust demand for iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. The iPhone 6 Plus supply shortage implies not only robust demand, but also confirms our concerns regarding constraints within the supply chain. We believe 4Q14 iPhone shipments will be stronger if supply chain constraints are eased.
Kuo notes that the iPhone 5c and 4s which are still sold in emerging markets [like Virgin Mobile in the US?!] will be discontinued in 2015 after promotions that ironically will improve low end sales numbers in Q1 2015. Subsequently, average price per device sold will also drop significantly for Apple in Quarter 1… Expand Expanding Close
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