Twice as many people buying iPhone 5s as iPhone 5c (latest claim)

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With no word from Apple on the breakdown of its record-breaking iPhone sales between 5s and 5c (and no word expected during the company’s earnings call either), everyone is posting their estimates.

First to the punch was Localytics, who used iPhone connections to mobile and web apps to come up with an estimate of three to one in favor of the 5s. KGI’s Mingchi Kuo disagreed, using supply chain analysis to put the figures closer to 50/50, and suggesting that, if anything, sales of the 5c might be slightly higher. Now we have Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (via AllThingsD) using consumer surveys to suggest that the 5s is outselling the 5c two-to-one …  Read more

Production analysis disputes claims of 5s outselling 5c; forecasts combined sales of 50-55M in Q4

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KGI’s Mingchi Kuo, an analyst with an excellent track record, has disputed an earlier suggestion by web analytics company Localytics that the iPhone 5s is outselling the 5c three-to-one, suggesting that actual sales are closer to 50/50 – with 5c sales actually likely to be somewhat higher.

KGI estimates that the 9M initial sales comprised 3.5-4.5M iPhone 5s, and 4.5-5.5M iPhone 5c.

The confidential briefing document points out that analytics data is based on activation (or, more specifically, use of the phone to browse the web and run certain apps), which is not the same as sales. KGI’s estimates are based on production numbers …  Read more

New report claims China leads demand for iPhone 5s over 5c, 78% of new iPhones globally are 5s

How many of those 9 million first weekend sales were for the iPhone 5s vs the iPhone 5c? There’s been a lot of speculation about how many of each device Apple is selling, and whether or not lack of availability of the gold iPhone 5s is due to low supply or simply the higher demand. Apple is staying quiet on the breakdown of 5s units vs 5c, but today we get some solid insight from Localytics after the research firm tracked over 20 million unique active iPhones since launch day on Friday.

72 hours after the launch of the new devices, Localytics found that China, not the U.S., had the highest relative share of iPhone 5s vs 5c sales.

Globally an average of 78% of new iPhones sold were iPhone 5s models, while China came in at 91% 5s. It’s somewhat surprising considering analysts have largely expected the 5c to do well in China and other emerging markets, but the report speculates that the fact that gold is a popular color in the country could be driving higher demand for the 5s.That compares to the U.S. at 76% and an average of 82% in other countries. It appears the UK has the highest share of 5c sales as “the only country that didn’t have at least a 3 to 1 ratio of 5s  to 5c activations.”

Localytics also tells us that currently “the U.S. accounts for 68% of all active iPhone 5s and 5c devices worldwide, with Japan in second place with 13% of 5s and 5c’sRead more

Apple saw record sales this holiday season, 12 times the amount of activations on Christmas Day

Apple saw record-setting sales this holiday season, according to Localytics. So well, that 12.5 times more iOS devices were activated over Christmas than past weekends. For comparison sake: there were 21 times more iPods compared to 14 times more iPhones. The iPods were most likely gifted to younger children who do not yet have a cell phone. At any rate… there were many people enjoying iOS devices on Christmas Day.

Apple is said to have another record setting quarter after a very successful fiscal Q4 for the company. The last earnings report said Apple claimed $28.27 billion in revenue and saw record-setting Mac and iPhone sales. The holiday quarter is expected to be even better.

Apple is set to have its best year ever in its App Store with approximately 10 billion downloads in 2011, along with a record-setting holiday season. That estimate doubles collective downloads from the three years prior, according to research firm Flurry. The report noted the Android Market hit 10 billion cumulative downloads in December, up from 3 billion total downloads in May 2011.

Flurry also backs up Localytics claim and said Christmas Day 2011s activations crushed Christmas Day 2010s by almost 2.5 times. This year saw 6.8 million iOS and Android device activations, and last year saw 2.8 million device activations. That’s a 140 percent growth. We are looking forward to hearing what Apple has to say in late January.

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AT&T still commands a (shrinking) majority of U.S. iPhone base, says Localytics

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According to Localytics, AT&T continues to be the dominant iPhone carrier in the US, even with the Verizon entering the market strongly last year, grabbing 40% of the users in half the time.

As the 4S was launched on Sprint as well with truly unlimited data plans, one would have thought more of AT&T’s marketshare would have been diminished.  However, it appears that sprint is taking more away from Verizon.

Sprint’s share of the 4S market now stands at 12% according to the figures.  AT&T, though coverage is spotty in urban areas like New York and San Francisco, does have a significant speed advantage over Sprint and Verizon’s 3G as well as the ability to talk and use data at the same time.

Looking at iPhone 4 distribution as a comparison, Sprint seems to have eroded more of Verizon’s market share than AT&T’s – of the previous-generation handset, 60% are on AT&T versus 40% on Verizon.

A likely driver for these differences is the fact that AT&T can mine its existing base of iPhone users. Because all Verizon iPhone users are in the first year of their wireless contract, the cost of upgrading will be high. However, many longer-term AT&T users, especially those holding iPhone 3GS and earlier devices, are off-contract or nearing the end of their contract. AT&T has been aggressively leveraging the iPhone 4S to sign these customers to new two-year contracts, and the data in this study suggests that tactic may be working.

That data strongly lines up with our poll which we’ve been tracking since before the iPhone 4S launch…

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Localytics: Verizon claiming almost a third of all US iPhone 4s

Analytics company Localytics today published a report on the rise of the Verizon iPhone.  In the July month, it accounted for 32% of all iPhone 4s purchased (AT&T is still selling iPhone3GS, and has the US exclusive on the $49 iPhone).  That’s with AT&T’s 8-month head start.

It’s not all gravy for Verizon.  Localytics surmises that the biggest selling point to US users was the ‘unlimited’ data plans…which end today.

Why the recent uptick in Verizon adoption? One reason may be Verizon’s unlimited data plan, which they are scheduled to do away with on July 7th. AT&T officially discontinued its unlimited data plan in mid-2010, although existing customers were allowed to keep their plan as long as they remained AT&T customers. We’ll continue tracking the shift in iPhone 4 market share to see if Verizon loses momentum post-unlimited-data.

It will be interesting to see the split on iPhone 5 when all carriers (including Sprint T-Mobile and others?) are equally pitted against each other. Read more