Report: Drops in Apple’s share price historically followed by surge in earnings growth

In October, Apple stock dropped below 600 for the first time since July. Since then, following a number of new product launches, AAPL has continued to fall and now only sits slightly higher than last week at roughly 550 per share and a market cap of $518 billion. While many have pointed to uncertainty regarding new product launches and executive level changes as the cause of Apple’s falling share price, no one quite has a definitive answer for why AAPL has hit a nearly six-month low. In a report today, titled “A dramatic reading of Apple’s share price”, Asymco analyst Horace Dediu might have the answer.

Dediu studied 13 bear AAPL markets starting with the October 2001 launch of the iPod. As noted in the report, Apple’s stock had just fallen 70 percent year-over-year and continued to drop another 20 percent following the iPod launch. However, since the iPhone launch, Dediu found “every dramatic drop in share price was followed by a surge in earnings growth.” The graph above maps earnings growth following bear Apple markets since the 2007 iPhone introduction.

So, why exactly does this happen? Dediu explained his theory:

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Apple passed $400B market cap briefly today, set all-time company high of $431 a share

Hot off the heels of Apple’s iBook Textbooks and iBooks Author announcement, the Cupertino, Calif.-based Company passed a $400 billion market cap briefly today, AllThingsD pointed out. Apple also saw a new company record of $431 a share this afternoon —up $2 from yesterday’s record. As the afternoon continued on, Apple’s market cap went down to $398 billion again, but it is still close to coming back. For comparison, the world’s most valuable company, Exxon, has a market cap of $417 billion. Apple was at one time the most valuable company in 2011.

As CNN Money pointed out, Apple with a market cap of $400 billion is worth more than the countries Greece, Austria, Argentina, and South Africa.

Apple dominated financially in 2011, and it continues in 2012. Next Tuesday, the company will report what is expected to be record earnings from Q4. Apple is also expected to break past the sales of 5 million Macs and up to 30 million iPhones, some analysts claimed. We will be covering Apple’s financial announcement next Tuesday. Stay tuned!

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