Fortune relays Piper Jaffray/Gene Munster’s bullish prediction that Apple could reach a $1Trillion valuation in a few years by taking some its competitors’ value while also benefiting from increased tech investment and sales. The first point he illustrates (above) is that during the period where AAPL gained $400B in valuation (2008 to present), some of its key competitors lost the same amount in market cap. The second point is rationalized thusly:
We believe dollars invested in US technology companies will increase ~5% y/y on average for the next three years (CY12-CY14). By comparison, dollars invested in US tech companies were up 9% y/y in 2011. Therefore, the tech sector will add ~$390 billion in market cap through 2014. We assume Apple could capture half of this market cap (from 85% in the 4 years prior).Therefore, the tech sector will add ~$390 billion in market cap through 2014. We assume Apple could capture half of this market cap (from 85% in the 4 years prior).
Here’s a video from CNBC where Munster explains his world view: Apple and Samsung rule the mobile roost and companies like Nokia and RIM disappears into the ether.