Apple will announce 4M more iPhone sales than supply chain data suggests, says Morgan Stanley

Photo: digitaltrends.com

Photo: digitaltrends.com

Predictions of disappointing Q2 iPhone sales could be unduly pessimistic, says Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty. She expects Apple to announce that it shipped 42M iPhones in the first quarter of the year (Apple’s fiscal Q2), rather than the 38M suggested by supply chain analysis, reports Business Insider. This would represent year-on-year growth of more than 4.5M handsets.

Huberty says that the supply chain may work in overdrive during the holiday quarter to generate extra product, and then ease back in the March quarter, thus giving an unreliable read out on sales.

Huberty bases her estimate on a method which sounds eccentric but has an excellent track-record …  Read more

Liveblog: Apple’s Q1 2013 earnings results conference call

As previously announced, today Apple is reporting its Q1 2013 earnings results. There is much uncertainty going into today’s call with Apple shares down significantly in recent months to roughly $500 since hitting a high of over $700 per share in September. With the iPhone 5 landing in a total of 100 countries last month, as well as iPad mini making its way to new markets, Wall Street estimates Apple will report between 47.5 million and 53 million iPhones sold and iPad sales between 23 million and 25 million. Compare that with Apple’s Q1 numbers last year: 37 million iPhones and 15.43 million iPads sold. Earlier this week Verizon reported 6.2M iPhone activations for the quarter, around half of which were iPhone 5 sales.

We’ll be providing blow-by-blow coverage of the earnings call in our live blog below at 2 PM Pacific/5 PM Eastern time. Stay tuned to 9to5Mac.com’s homepage for additional coverage:

Head below for updates… Read more

iPad 3 press invite and favorable market push AAPL toward half a trillion dollar market cap

Update: AAPL closed at 535.41 but is at 536.37 pushing its market cap over $500B

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Some folks noticed that shares of Apple, Inc. surged yesterday morning amid favorable market conditions. Today’s announcement of the March 7 iPad 3 unveiling has managed to push the Cupertino, Calif.-headquartered designer of shiny electronics to a new lifetime high. The Apple stock, which trades on NASDAQ under the AAPL symbol, was up nearly nine points, or more than 1.5-percent, in early afternoon trading.

Valued at $534.08 a share, the company was just shy of $500 billion in market valuation at the time of this writing. Wow, just wow. Talk about the iPad effect.

That is still below Microsoft’s $583 billion valuation from 1999, but the iPhone maker’s getting closer and closer with each passing day. AAPL first crossed the $500 a share milestone the day before Valentine’s Day. Earlier on Feb. 9, 2012, shares of Apple, Inc. passed 10 percent of all of NASDAQ value and traded at $431 a share. In addition, right following Valentine’s Day, Apple first passed the psychological $500 a share barrier. For comparison’s sake, AAPL on Steve Jobs’ Oct. 5, 2011 passing traded at $378.25.

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Morgan Stanley raises forecast to over a quarter billion iPhones and iPads in 2012

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty wrote in a note to clients issued yesterday (via Fortune) that U.S. consumers are expect to buy more iPhones in the first calendar quarter of 2012 than even the holiday quarter this year. This is noteworthy as the holiday quarter has traditionally been Apple’s strongest three-month sales period.

Not even the two recent Samsung television commercials (here and here) that poke fun of line waiters seem to be slowing the iPhone momentum (unless you believe a YouGov survey, chart included below the fold). Huberty is now projecting CQ4 iPhone sales anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones versus the previous model calling for 30 million units (Wall Street: 28 million). For the first quarter of the next year, Huberty is projecting an astounding 41 million units based on last week’s comments from AT&T and an Alphawise survey conducted for Morgan Stanley the week after Thanksgiving.

That’s a 46 percent increase over her previous 28 million estimate (Wall Street: 26 million). In all, Huberty wrote, Apple should sell 190 million iPhones during the calendar year 2012. As for iPad…

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