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Analyst Gene Munster guesses Watch pricing, thinks only 10,000 Editions will be sold in the first year

Apple Watch Price Guessing

Spotted: Analyst guessing Apple Watch pricing.

Analyst Gene Muster, from Piper Jaffray, has today posted a report with his predictions about Apple Watch pricing. Munster believes that Apple will improve overall margins through the sale of bands. This makes a lot of sense, especially considering Apple Retail SVP Angela Ahrendts is calling out ‘accessories’ as a key area for retail in the coming months.

Munster believes that the Apple Watch Sport will cost $349 (no surprises there). He says the Apple Watch — the one made out of stainless steel with a sapphire crystal screen — will cost around $500 with additional bands pushing the average selling price up to $650, which happens to be the current ASP of Apple’s iPhone units. Munster also estimates the Edition will start at $4999, despite general consensus sitting closer to $10,000. Munster is relatively bearish on Apple Watch Edition sales, suggesting that Apple will only sell 10,000 units in the first year to take only a small fraction of the expensive watch market.

Obviously, these numbers are little more than educated guesswork. Almost like throwing a dart at a dartboard.

We’ll find out for certain on March 9th whether Munster happens to be right. As we discussed earlier, there is also the slim possibility Munster’s claims about a revamped Apple TV offering may finally come true as well.

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Comments

  1. Edison Wrzosek - 9 years ago

    Oh, so the blind man, who’s always been wrong about Apple, it’s product launches, and someone who has less accuracy than Miss Cleo, is now trying his hand at predictions again?

    Gene, do the world a favour, never write another article, don’t make any more predictions, quit that anal-yst job, and find a new career as a low-end worker somewhere, taking orders instead.

  2. What are these analyst guys good for? I’ve never gotten to the point of them but yeah, keep it up.

    • Edison Wrzosek - 9 years ago

      They’re good for a little mid-afternoon office humour?

    • Nick Donnelly - 9 years ago

      These guys facilitate these investment firms creating the illusion that they know what is going on in the market – so they can invest your money.

      Fact is almost universally a stock market tracking fund does better. They are theatre for rich idiots – and most of them know way less than your average geek.

      Munster has bene pushing an Apple TV for years – he doesn’t seem to understand that deals with content creators are the problem. You could put a monkey at a computer that would come up with better predictions.

  3. Robert A Jones - 9 years ago

    I think everyone is highly overestimating the price of the Edition watches.

  4. Nick Donnelly - 9 years ago

    They’ll sell 10,000 edition watches in the first week.

    WAY too low – but then this guy is always wrong….

    • AL (@htowngator) - 9 years ago

      10,000 of the $5k-$10k watches? I doubt it.

      • florinnica - 9 years ago

        You doubt that there are more than 10,000 in the world that can afford and will want one of those? Most wealthy people are shallow individuals. I think Apple will several tens of thousands of those in China alone. But again, I am just guessing :) We’ll see in a few months… who knows, maybe you’re right!

  5. AL (@htowngator) - 9 years ago

    $500 is fairly crazy for a smart watch but then again anything’s possible with the legion that Apple has as far as “I’ll buy anything Apple” goes.

    I have a 6+ and was have owned AW watches with Android phones before that. I returned them all because even at $200-$250 for a decent watch like Asus made or the upcoming Hauwei it isn’t a great iteration for first gen. I can’t fathom paying anything close to $350 even for the cheapest one Apple will offer.

  6. I dont understand will people think the begin will be the Sport. All the site of Watch is clean: Watch > Sport > Edition, even the keynote of presentation said that.

    Actually, the price of Aluminium is higher than Stainless Steel, and the Ion-X is *not* so much cheaper than Sapphire Cover. I’m convinced that the US$349 will be for Apple Watch 38mm; Sport will be the medium. Edition (of course) the high-end.

    • noaht62 - 9 years ago

      Even though the Apple Watch Sport is not compatible with any higher end straps? And the sapphire is that much more premium than the ion-x glass (fancy name for gorilla glass 4). It’s not about cost, it’s about how premium it is. Sapphire is not higher end watches and stainless steal is also.
      And the sport market is used to items like the Fitbit and jawbone, which are far below the $350 mark, an athlete shouldn’t pay more that $350 for something that has as many health features as the latest Fitbit models.

  7. Frankly I think the WSJ numbers on the Edition are the more questionable ones (A third of the planet’s annual god mining capacity, or something thereabouts seems awfully laughable. Even Gruber seems to find them suspect).

    Then again, of course, we’re ALL giving baseless opinions until we know the price and options. You can’t know the demand – unless you have sources in supply chain or at  – until we do.

    Economic concepts of Price Elasticity even in  Dreamland, is a factor

  8. Pierre Calixte - 9 years ago

    the base watch comes in at $350 and the edition is going for $5000?? how much gold do people think Apple is going to put in this thing? lol

    people throwing out these ridiculous numbers reminds me of when people were saying that the iPad would be expensive. And then the iPad came in about half the price of what most analysts were speculating.

    Apple’s most expensive product to date is the mac pro and it’s entry point is $3000 and that’s their most powerful computer. so I can’t fathom Apple pricing an accessory higher than that. I don’t care if it’s gold or not.

    Not to mention, Apple has never been about exclusivity. they will price the Apple watch edition at a point to get the most profit but at the same time get it into as many hands as possible. $5000 doesn’t do that.

    I predict the watch edition will come in between $1499 and $1999.

    • wootcat - 9 years ago

      Apple’s most expensive product to date was the Macintosh IIfx which sold for $9,900, which adjusted for inflation would be almost $18,500.

    • Andrew Burton - 9 years ago

      I don’t think you’re an idiot, but it’s estimated that the watches will take approximately 1 ounce of gold. Gold is valued at approximately $1200 an ounce. Add the cost of the specialty tools and machines it will take to work with gold, as you can’t use the same tools you used with aluminum and steel. Then add apples traditional 40%. And that doesn’t count the cost of the sapphire and the parts. It may not be $10,000, but if it’s less than $5,000, I might be willing to consider it.

  9. jrox16 - 9 years ago

    “general consensus sitting closer to $10,000”

    Huh? I remember the poll showed $1500 to $2500 for the majority votes on the Edition. Where is this consensus coming from now? There’s no way it’ll be that much, gold doesn’t cost THAT much. And people who have the money to spend on a Rolex won’t spend that same money on a gold Apple Watch that will be obsolete as soon as the Apple Watch 2 comes out. And Apple knows this, they must know it. They don’t don’t jump into a market without studying it carefully. Here’s my unpaid prediction:

    Sport $349
    Watch $499
    Edition $1499

    • sircheese69 - 9 years ago

      Gold is 1200 per OUNCE….you again have shown your ability to not know what you are talking about.

  10. Chris Denny (@dennyc69) - 9 years ago

    Gene “The Apple TV” Munster comes out again with a prediction that’s 9 times out of 10 way off the mark. Just like the Apple TV.

  11. Ryan Morano - 9 years ago

    You realize that’s 100 million dollars!

  12. Hey Gene, What’s your prediction for the Apple TV this time around? Ground hog day 2016?

  13. Martin Beutling - 9 years ago

    Munster is wrong in two areas:
    1.) Given the fact that brands like Rolex sell stainless-steel-watches for up to 10K, the ss-version of the AppleWatch will have a four-figure price tag…..admitted,Apple is not Rolex in the watch segment, but they would let money on the table by pricing the ss-version under 1k
    2.) China: there are so many so rich people in China who are crazy after the Apple brand, I think that a single store alone would sell 10k of the Watch edition in the first year.

    I like Munster for his support for Apple throughout the years, but here he is wrong.

  14. philboogie - 9 years ago

    “There has never been a statue erected to honour an analyst.”

  15. Christoph Lindemann - 9 years ago

    My guess:

    Sport (small): 349$
    Sport (large): 399$

    AppleWatch (small): 949$
    AppleWatch (large): 999$ (i hope 499€ ;-) )

    Edition: starting at 1999€

  16. juls0789 - 9 years ago

    $3000 edition (random guess). I wouldn’t know where to start for the watch and watch sport because of others speculation of the pricing order. It may be wishful thinking but I think it’s in that order for a reason so watch $349, watch sport more sensors??? So cost more $449.

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Avatar for Benjamin Mayo Benjamin Mayo

Benjamin develops iOS apps professionally and covers Apple news and rumors for 9to5Mac. Listen to Benjamin, every week, on the Happy Hour podcast. Check out his personal blog. Message Benjamin over email or Twitter.