Adobe is estimating that 10% of those who own either an iPhone or iPad will buy an Apple Watch within the first 18 months, equating to around 25M sales.
The prediction follows a poll of 1,000 American smartphone and tablet users, where 27% say they are likely or very likely to buy a wearable, and two-thirds of those think it will be an Apple Watch. Adobe thinks those numbers are high, and with good reason …
The results would equate to 18% of all smartphone and tablet owners–iOS and Android combined–claiming they’re likely to buy an Apple Watch. However, the headline results combine ‘likely’ and ‘very likely,’ and the usual rule of thumb is that only the ‘very likely’ numbers count. Factor in the Android owners who haven’t thought it through, and Adobe’s principle analyst for the study, Tamara Gaffney, thinks 10% of iOS users will buy.
A Credit Suisse poll back in January found that 18% of iPhone 6/Plus owners said they would ‘definitely’ buy the Apple Watch, giving a forecast of 35M sales within the first year. Analysts have estimated anything from 10M to 37M.
All the polls are analyst guesses are of limited meaning before Apple has even revealed pricing for the complete range of models. Apple should reveal the numbers during today’s Spring Forward event.
Via Fortune
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Wouldn’t 10% equate to 50M? I thought we crossed the 500M mark last year already. Can’t be *that* many iPods sold, can it?
Total iOS device sales, sure, but really old ones have been long retired by now, so I’m estimating 250M-ish in active use
Can only be iPhone 5, 5C, 5S, 6, 6 Plus, and if counting the first 18 months, 6S, 6S Plus. Which so far is about 300+ million I believe.
That’s the compatibility, but the number is being cited as a proportion of iOS device users rather than compatible device users only.
I think you can safely add ” … until they find out how much it is,” to the title of this article. If the price is as Gruber has been saying there will be a huge amount of disappointment out there.
Pricing is going to be interesting for sure!
Won’t be me. I have been a loyal Apple user for 20+ years…that means I know better than to buy the first generation anything Apple, man.
I am in agreement with you. I honestly think they did a decent job with this product over other 1st gen products, I just need to play around with it more, plus there really isn’t much they can change in this thing in the short term that I can think of. They might be able to add a video camera for video conferencing, but the screen’s too small to see more then 1 person if you are doing a video conference call with 2 or more people. I think putting a camera on this product is dumb since it’s awkward to take photos with a device on your wrist. I know they’ll improve it, but how long will they take in between versions and what improvements could there be? Not that much room inside and they can’t make these things any bigger, they would have to make them thinner which is VERY difficult to do.
I think it’s going to be about 10% of the number of iPhone 6/6+ owners, is my guess, which is so far more like 110 million users, so that would make it more like 11 million units sold. At least that’s my benchmark.
Why? Well, they are pushing ApplePay and the 6/6+ do ApplePay and the other models don’t, so wouldn’t it make more sense that iPhone 6/6+ users use the AppleWatch while 5S, 5C and 5 earlier would just have to upgrade their phone to a 6/6+ model first? That’s my line of reasoning..
I believe the Apple Watch adds Apple Pay to the 5-series devices because it provides the NFC the 5’s lack.
Does the Apple Watch set-up app exist for the iPad – I only heard iPhone mentioned?
If not then is this for modern iPhone users only – not those with only iPad.