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Expectations for Apple earnings set so low stock not expected to drop, analyst argues best time to buy

An analyst for Morgan Stanley said today that expectations for Apple’s Q1 2019 earnings are already set so low, that now marks perhaps the most ideal time to invest in the company.

Basically, the “bad news” regarding weak iPhone sales has already seen such a heavy response from the most fickle investors, that whatever Apple announces on Tuesday will most likely not tank the stock any more volatile than usual.


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Analysts predict drop in average iPhone selling price, growth in services to make up the difference

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Ahead of Apple’s financial earnings call covering the holiday quarter, analysts are speculating that the average selling price for iPhones has declined. A report from Bloomberg shares that even though there may be growth for total iPhone units shipped compared with the year ago quarter, predictions say it will be the strong rise in Apple’s services that will increase revenue for the quarter.


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Apple announces Q4 2015 revenue of $51.5b: 48m iPhones, 9.8m iPads, 5.7m Macs

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Apple has officially posted its Q4 2015 earnings results with $51.5 billion in revenue and $11.1 billion in profit from the July to September quarter. While Apple isn’t breaking out Apple Watch sales, Q4 is only the second quarter to include numbers for the product (grouped with iPods, Apple TVs, and more in the Other category) and the first to include any iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus sales. Apple previously announced over 13 million iPhone 6s and 6s Plus launch sales with purchases completed by Saturday, September 26th included in today’s numbers.

Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2015 fourth quarter ended September 26, 2015. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $51.5 billion and quarterly net profit of $11.1 billion, or $1.96 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $42.1 billion and net profit of $8.5 billion, or $1.42 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 39.9 percent compared to 38 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 62 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

Here’s Apple’s breakdown of iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales from the quarter:

  • iPhone: 48 million units
  • iPad: 9.8 million units
  • Mac: 5.7 million units

Apple’s “Other” category, which holds Apple Watch, Apple TV, Beats hardware, iPods, and accessories, reported $3.04 billion in revenue. That’s update from $2.6 billion in the prior quarter.

Apple CEO Tim Cook had this to say about the quarter:

“Fiscal 2015 was Apple’s most successful year ever, with revenue growing 28% to nearly $234 billion. This continued success is the result of our commitment to making the best, most innovative products on earth, and it’s a testament to the tremendous execution by our teams,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We are heading into the holidays with our strongest product lineup yet, including iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus, Apple Watch with an expanded lineup of cases and bands, the new iPad Pro and the all-new Apple TV which begins shipping this week.”

And Luca Maestri, chief financial officer at the company, said this:

“Apple’s record September quarter results drove earnings per share growth of 38% and operating cash flow of $13.5 billion,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO. “We returned $17 billion to our investors during the quarter through share repurchases and dividends, and we have now completed over $143 billion of our $200 billion capital return program.”

How do these numbers relate to past performance? Apple’s Q4 results compare to the prior quarter’s $49 billion in revenue, 47 million iPhone sales, 10.9 million iPad sales, and 4.7 million Mac sales. In the same quarter a year ago, Apple reported $42.1 billion in revenue, 39 million iPhones sold, 12.3 million iPads sold, and 5.5 million Macs sold. Apple reported $10.7 billion in profit in the prior quarter and $8.5 billion in profit in the year ago quarter.

Read on for Apple’s full Q4 earnings report, and stay tuned as we await Apple’s quarterly conference call at 2 p.m. PT/ 5 p.m. ET to discuss these results. Tim Cook and Luca Maestri are expected to deliver prepared commentary on the earnings results then field questions from analysts participating on the call.
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AAPL’s numbers today are going to be huge, analysts predict: double-digit growth in all but iPads

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With Apple set to reveal its fiscal Q2 earnings after market close today, analysts are expecting double-digit year-over-year growth in all categories except iPads. Fortune‘s roundup says that analysts predict revenue of $56.84B, up a massive 24.5% year-over-year, and above the top end of Apple’s $52-55M guidance. Earnings per share is predicted to be $2.21, up a third on the previous year, with gross margin just shy of Apple’s top-end guidance at 39.4%.

Double-digit growth is expected in both iPhones and Macs. For iPhones, the prediction includes sales just under 56M, 32.6% higher than the same quarter last year, while Mac sales are forecasted to hit 4.7M, 13.6% up on last year … 
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Anticipated iPhone numbers would see Apple threatening Samsung’s smartphone lead

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If Apple does indeed report iPhone sales in line with analyst expectations of 66.5M units, the company could be closing in on the market share lead Samsung has held in the smartphone market since 2011, reports the WSJ.

Research company Canalys notes that Apple’s anticipated growth in iPhone sales coincides with a dramatic drop in sales of Samsung smartphones.

Samsung’s share has been falling, hurt by lackluster sales of its flagship models and the rise of homegrown brands in fast-growing emerging markets. In the third quarter, Samsung shipped about 78 million smartphones, about 25% share of the global market, down from 34% a year earlier, Canalys said.

While that still leaves Samsung well ahead for now, it’s a trendline which could see Apple regain the lead it once held … 
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AAPL will announce record quarter, predict analysts, with earnings up 11.9%

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Analysts are predicting that Apple (AAPL) will announce record sales and earnings in today’s fiscal Q4 (calendar Q3) earnings call, reports Fortune.

I’ve got the collected fiscal Q4 estimates of 33 Apple analysts — 21 professionals and 12 amateurs. They are all to a man (and one woman) predicting record Q4 sales and earnings (up 7.1% and 11.9%, respectively).

The analysts also expect earnings per share to be up 12% year-on-year, to $1.32 … 
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AAPL stock drops 8 percent on iPhone numbers and flat guidance

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Despite Apple returning to growth for the first time in a year, AAPL stock opened almost 8 percent down, as iPhone sales fell below analyst predictions and Apple’s mid-point guidance on Q2 earnings forecast was for zero growth.

Analysts had predicted 55.3M iPhone sales, while Apple reported sales of 51M. Analysts were also disappointed in Apple’s guidance for Q2 of $42-44B, as the mid-point of $43B would not show any growth over the same quarter last year … 
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AAPL returns to growth, predict analysts, as we await quarterly earnings call

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When Apple reports its quarterly earnings later today, the news will be good, according to the consensus view of 47 Apple analysts compiled by Fortune.

Analysts are expecting the company to report earnings of $58.1B for the final quarter of last year (Apple’s fiscal quarter 1), representing 4 percent earnings growth over the same quarter last year. This would be right at the top end of Apple’s guidance of $55-58B, and the first time in a year that Apple would have reported year-on-year growth … 
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Analysts estimate iPad sales up 10 percent year-on-year, to 25M last quarter

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A couple of days after Fortune did its roundup of analyst estimates of iPhone sales, it has now done the same for the iPad, with the average forecast coming out at 25M sales in the final quarter of last year (Apple fiscal Q1) – up 10 percent from the previous year.

iPads were a more challenging market to forecast, observes Fortune‘s Philip Elmer-Dewitt:

The iPad Air didn’t ship until Nov. 1, missing one third of the quarter; the new iPad Mini (with Retina display) showed up 12 days later and was in short supply all the way through Christmas … 
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Analysts estimate Apple sold 55.3M iPhones last quarter, up 16 percent

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With Apple due to report its earnings a week from today, Fortune has run its usual roundup on the numbers analysts are predicting.

The consensus among the 44 analysts we’ve heard from so far — 27 professionals and 17 amateurs — is unit sales of 55.3 million iPhones, up 16% from the same quarter last year.

It’s a near-certainty the numbers will be high … 
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Over half analysts surveyed expect AAPL to beat its own high-end guidance today

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Update: The analysts were right to be optimistic, but not optimistic enough

As we wait for Apple to announce its Q4 results in this afternoon’s earnings call, more than half of the analysts included in Fortune’s survey expect the company to beat its high-end guidance of $37B. The average is driven up by the amateurs, who come in at $37.38B, while the professionals expect just a touch under the top end at $36.95B.

Predictions on both revenues and earnings do vary markedly, however. While the consensus view is that year-on-year revenues will be up 3 percent and earnings down 6 percent, even among the professionals the earnings estimates span a 15 percent range.

Top: FBN’s Shelby Seyrafi: $39.18 billion (up 9% year over year)
Bottom: Cantor Fitzgerald’s Brian White: $34.57 billion (down 4%)

Apple beating its own guidance wouldn’t have been remarkable in the days when Apple gave absurdly pessimistic guidance and then blew it away, but would be impressive since Cook started offering realistic ranges … 
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Wall Street consensus emerging for near-zero growth in Apple’s Q3 earnings

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Fortune is reporting that most analysts expect Apple to report near-zero year-on-year growth when the company reveals its Q3 earnings figures on 23 July.

The pessimistic expectations began just a day after Apple reported its Q2 earnings, with Cowan and Company taking just 24 hours to post a Q3 prediction of $35.4B. More recent analyst estimates gathered by Thomson Financial, and reported on Yahoo! Finance, were marginally lower, at $35.17B. Fortune‘s own preliminary survey of 35 analysts to date is slightly lower still at $35.02B … 
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