iPhone sales figures

With no word from Apple on the breakdown of its record-breaking iPhone sales between 5s and 5c (and no word expected during the company’s earnings call either), everyone is posting their estimates.

First to the punch was Localytics, who used iPhone connections to mobile and web apps to come up with an estimate of three to one in favor of the 5s. KGI’s Mingchi Kuo disagreed, using supply chain analysis to put the figures closer to 50/50, and suggesting that, if anything, sales of the 5c might be slightly higher. Now we have Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (via AllThingsD) using consumer surveys to suggest that the 5s is outselling the 5c two-to-one … 
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KGI’s Mingchi Kuo, an analyst with an excellent track record, has disputed an earlier suggestion by web analytics company Localytics that the iPhone 5s is outselling the 5c three-to-one, suggesting that actual sales are closer to 50/50 – with 5c sales actually likely to be somewhat higher.

KGI estimates that the 9M initial sales comprised 3.5-4.5M iPhone 5s, and 4.5-5.5M iPhone 5c.

The confidential briefing document points out that analytics data is based on activation (or, more specifically, use of the phone to browse the web and run certain apps), which is not the same as sales. KGI’s estimates are based on production numbers … 
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