Seth Weintraub

Some interesting news coming out of Mobile World Congress today.  Microsoft-Nokia’s CEO Stephen Elop mentioned some new details of the relationship that weren’t immediately available.  Namely that Microsoft would “invest” billions of dollars into Nokia to help them with their transition.

That’s the cost of doing business it seems.  I wonder what Nokia would have done had Microsoft not paid them those billions of dollars to go WP7?  Perhaps they’d stayed with Meego/Symbian or gone Android?  We’ll never know.  But would it have been a better long term strategy?  How do Microsoft’s other partners feel about injecting a billion dollars into one of their competitors?

As far as ‘new features’ for WP7 in 2011? Well, they have a very webOS-looking multitasking cards thing. Cut and Paste. Twitter integration.  CDMA.  Internet Explorer 9.

All coming this year!

The only differentiator, in my opinion, is XBOX integration.  Yet with only 8000 apps after a year in development, I’ll take the iOS app game library any time.  Even Sony’s Playstation phone beats the XBOX offer, it would seem.

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In his Monday Note, Jean-Louis Gassée (the guy who lost to SJobs to become the future of the Mac with his BeOS) writes about the current state of the Mac.  While he takes us on a long windy road, there are some interesting bits.

Specifically, the move to the forefront of the MacBook Air (which I am typing this on as of last month for the first time in my life).

To confirm this, let’s transport ourselves to a typical Apple Store. We’ll start in September 2010. The older MacBook Air is relegated to a low-traffic area of the store. It’s not “moving.”

Now look at the same store today. The Science of Shopping says the ‘‘high-value” area must be the first table on the left, because, statistically, that’s how we navigate stores. There we see six MacBook Airs: four 11” models and two 13” configurations.

This is an interesting if not obvious observation.  The reason?  The price has gone down while the performance of the MacBook Air has gone up.  My MacBook Air, likely because of the SSD, is faster than my previous MacBook Pro 15-inch base model, has the same pixels in the display and costs less.  My Superdrive was still a virgin even after 2 years of use.

Perhaps most interesting however is his postulation that the next version of the Air, running MacOS will run on Apple’s ARM processors….
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CoM this morning follows up the Bloomberg and WSJ iPhone nano stories with a theory of their own, albeit one with some perceived holes.

But to do that, Apple had to figure out a way to strip away some of the components to reduce both its size and cost.

By “some” of the memory, we mean ALL of the memory. The iPhone nano will have no memory for onboard storage of media, our source says. It will have only enough memory to buffer media streamed from the cloud.

“I’m talking strictly storage memory here,” said our source.

The iPhone nano will pull ALL it’s content from MobileMe. When users buy a movie or TV show on iTunes, it’s available to stream to their iPhone or iPad. The service is based on technology from LaLa.com, a streaming service that Apple bought last spring and then shut down.

“It would be a mostly cloud-based iOS,” said our source.

The major problem with this is that you couldn’t install apps on the iPhone nano.  Which sounds like kind of a bust.  You have to wait 10 minutes while your email app downloads? Not likely.

We’re of the opinion that the thing will have a few GBs at least – if only for caching stuff like AppleTV.  Memory ain’t that expensive – maybe Apple finally lets us use MicroSD?  Naahhhhh!

Update: The Loop offers another theory
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Here’s one from Dorian:

We’re particularly interested in the “screen goes to all of the edges” and “voice navigation” part of the WSJ report over the weekend.

(Oh snap! We’re getting some other good ones in the comments.  Vote up your favs!)
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http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/main.swf
Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 which will go up against iPad 2

Apple’s best Frenemy Samsung will be taking orders of $7.8 billion dollars in Apple device parts in 2011 according to a rereport by the WSJ/Korea Economic Daily.  Samsung also makes rival Android devices as well as laptops that compete with the MacBook Air and other products.

Samsung will supply Apple with liquid crystal displays, mobile application processors and NAND flash memory chips used for the U.S. company’s iPhones and iPads.  The deal will make Samsung Apple’s largest supplier.

Perhaps that $4 billion Apple has earmarked for supplies will lighten the load Apple places on one of its strategic rivals.
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From the Toys Section:

For the fist time that we can remember, we are seeing a USB stick for under $1 per GB.  The highly-rated SanDisk Cruzer (refurbished) on Amazon is $15.76 with free shipping.
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I’m calling it now.  If Apple continues to grow like it has (and maybe accelerates growth with a low cost iPhone and CDMA), it will produce the kind of numbers that will topple Nokia in the second half of 2011.

Apple’s iPhone product releases generally happen at the end of the second quarter but the majority of product refreshers will be taking delivery in the third quarter.  The pent up demand and new carrier options in the US (and abroad) will allow Apple to continue grow its market share significantly.

Nokia will be lucky to stay flat:

Meanwhile, Nokia’s platform refresh will see it stagnate until it can begin selling WP7 devices.  Low-end Android devices from LG, Samsung, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, Acer,  Huawei and others will also eat into Nokia’s share throughout 2011.

Nokia’s prospects for 2011 can’t be good.  You don’t throw your company at Microsoft because your channel inventory checks look solid.  It is hard to imagine significant demand for Symbian phone in 2011.  Even their CEO has said their current product is substandard.  It is hard to imagine any growth at Nokia until WP7 hits (and even then it will be new/unproven).

IDC’s numbers for the most recent quarter are:

Top Five Smartphone Vendors, Shipments, and Market Share, Q4 2010 (Units in Millions)

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Next Media Animation throws a little LSD into recent Apple news:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LC9i7uS3nDU&fs=1&hl=en_US]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTCwf6dXZOg&w=640&h=390]

The Microsoft-Nokia deal isn’t likely to bear ‘fruit’ for about a year, according to Elop’s comments after the announcement.  That means the “cheap smartphone” business that Nokia has dominated for the past five years is now wide open (who is going to buy Symbian now that Nokia has effectively killed it?)  It is nearly impossible to find anyone who thinks this Nokia Microsoft thing is a good idea.  Both companies’ stock price is plummeting.

Whatever happens, in the near term, there is going to be a void left where Nokia’s Symbian devices used to dominate.  Nokia’s implosion will leave room in the mid-low range of smartphones.  Android is already drooling.

Perhaps Apple sees an opportunity here.  Rather than let the year go by while Android gulps up more of Nokia’s old marketshare, perhaps Apple thinks it is time to strike.

It isn’t like Apple doesn’t have prototypes ready either.  They’ve probably built prototypes of every conceivable  iOS device from 3 inches to 22 inches.  Today’s news could be a call to action for Apple to have a iPhone mini product ready by June.

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[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xe3ksR8zgXg&w=100&h=100]

Everyone saw this coming but dang, it doesn’t seem like a great mashup. For instance, are HTC and Samsung going to be stoked that their Windows 7 phone OS is pretty much coming from Nokia, one of their rivals?  Nokia sounds like they will get the Windows Phone 7 good stuff first, it isn’t just hardware.

And Microsoft.  They are giving up Bing Mobile maps for Nokia’s?  Again, where does that leave Microsoft’s other partners?

It reminds me of when Microsoft had Plays for Sure for music and a bunch of partners signed up building hardware.  Then one day they said, screw you, we’re building a Zune.  Good luck with that.

Sounds like a bad plan made out of desperation on both sides.  And if you are wondering where they are getting their creative inspiration from, have a listen to their background music.  Sound familiar?

And the market absolutely LOVES the idea.  Nokia stock lost more than 10% ($4.2B) of its value in pre-market trading this morning.  It looks like investors are also jumping off the burning platform.

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Today’s Bloomberg article was about as interesting as they get in terms of what’s next for iPhone.  With $600 phones, Apple is priced outside of what most Americans will pay for a mobile device.  Obviously the carriers subsidize phones but then you end up paying way more than you should per month.  What does a $200 iPhone on a ‘pay as you go’ plan look like?

If you want to look at what a $200 iPhone would look like, I think the best current example is the LG Optimus V on Virgin Mobile, a Sprint Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO).  It is a 3.2 inch screen Android device with a speedy 600MHz ARM processor and 512Mb of RAM.  The resolution of the screen is the same as the iPhone 3GS even though it is .3 inch smaller.  This is important because you want to have legacy iPhone app pixel compatibility.  It has Bluetooth 2.1, GPS, a 3 Megapixel camera and just about everything the iPhone 3GS had…
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Developers, get downloading….

The WSJ reports that Steve Jobs is “still calling the shots from home”.  He’s actively involved in iPad 2 and iPhone 5 according to the report.

The 55-year-old Mr. Jobs, whose ailment hasn’t been disclosed, has been taking business meetings at home and on the phone, these people said.

He also has been seen on Apple’s Cupertino, Calif., campus and in public in Palo Alto, Calif., with a company executive, said people familiar with the matter.

Among products he is continuing to work on are the next version of the iPad tablet computer, expected out in the next couple of months, and a new iPhone, expected to be released this summer, said two of these people.

Jobs was apparently seen on campus last week and looked like he was in great shape according to an author who was visiting Apple’s campus.  Today’s WSJ report may have been to dispel rumors that Jobs was hospitalized.

Dust off  those iPhone nano rumors!

Bloomberg is reporting that Apple is working on a smaller, cheaper version of the iPhone for sale off contract.  The prototype was about one-third smaller than the iPhone 4, said Bloomberg’s source. (kinda like a HP Veer?)

To keep prices down, the smaller phone will use a processor, display and other components similar to those used in the current iPhone 4.

As we already found out, Apple’s also has a Dual Mode iPhone in the pike for the summer time:

Apple is also working on a so-called dual-mode phone, two people said. This device would be able to work with the world’s two main wireless standards — the global system for mobile communications, used by AT&T and overseas carriers including Vodafone Group Plc, and code division multiple access, used by Verizon Wireless. It is not known whether Apple intended to include this capability in the cheaper iPhone.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the report is that Apple is working on a Universal SIM which would allow users to jump from network to network.  A move like this would really hurt the carriers who have been able to corral their customers with long term contracts against expensive phone subsidies.

It would also be a significant drop in price.  Currently, an iPhone 4 costs $600 off contract.

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Fortune is reporting that Apple’s stock took a strange nosedive at around 1:39pm ET today.  Andy Zaky of Bullish Cross wrote:

“The selling is not normal just for negative news. There was a huge spike where dollars were being skipped in the selling. I saw Apple tick from $351.70 to $349.00 within seconds.  There’s something else.  The selling was not normal.  That’s for sure.  It wasn’t orderly. Take a look for yourself.”

The price recovered but is now falling again.  While initially attributed to the lower than expected Verizon iPhone turnout, Stock Tic Toc is attributing the AAPL selloff to a Steve Jobs in the hospital rumor (unlikely true).
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[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVGiNAs-QbY&w=640&h=390]

Assuming you save your passwords on your iPhone (iPod touch and iPad as well), you don’t remote wipe it and assuming the person who finds it is a pretty astute hacker, you may want to reset your passwords.  PCWorld details how an iPhone can be jailbroken and give up passwords in just 6 minutes.

The attack, which requires possession of the phone, targets keychain, Apple’s password management system. Passwords for networks and corporate information systems can be revealed if an iPhone or iPad is lost or stolen, said the researchers at the state-sponsored Fraunhofer Institute Secure Information Technology (Fraunhofer SIT).

It is based on existing exploits that provide access to large parts of the iOS file system even if a device is locked.

Maybe Apple should make remote wipe a free option.  Oh they just did!
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Engadget is showing off (or is it sister site TUAW?) some interesting strings apparently found in the latest versions of the iOS software (above).  Their take?

New code in the iOS 4.3 beta 3 firmware hints that Apple TV may soon support online gaming. Several references have been found pertaining to “ATVGames” and “ATVThunder” that point to a controller of some sort, leaderboards (think Game Center), a way to schedule games (multiplayer?), and a store front (think App Store, iTunes).

With only 8GB of storage (but a nice USB port in the back) we’re likely to see some sort of streaming-type products at some point.  Speculation is that there might be some sort of OnLive-type of product that streams from North Carolina.

Adding fuel to the fire, here’s are some hidden UI tricks found with a harmony remote that seem to indicate much more is in the works for AppleTV.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDvEzojpkoU&w=100&h=100]

If you are like me and want to try to figure out what all the excitement is about, check the video below.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnjwG7Z8AM8&w=640&h=390]
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Heck, let’s start talking about iPad 5 and iPhone 7.

Daring Fireball made mention of an iPad 3 due in the Fall in a post this afternoon.  No details just a date and a season.  TechCrunch’s MG Sigler quickly jumped on it saying they had heard something coming in the fall too.  Keep in mind that there are zero details, just phantom dates on a calendar.

Well, until today. We’ve now heard that this “fall surprise” is related to this would-be iPad 3. We don’t have any more concrete information beyond that. But, as of right now, the plan is apparently to release one iteration of the iPad in the next few weeks. And then blow the doors open with another new version in the fall.

Just over a year ago Siegler reported that Apple was readying a iMac Tablet “More Like A Mac Than An iPhone.”  Maybe that’s it – though Steve Jobs at the Lion event said they wouldn’t build such a machine.

If anything, this Fall “iPad 3” is likely a bigger iPod touch with some extra sauce.

But let’s play the guessing game.  If there is anything that Apple would like to squeeze into its iPad it would be ahigher rez screen (WSJ mentioned that they weren’t able to make the cutoff).  Remember “retina” on a tablet is different than “retina” on a phone.  Also, iPad camera specs seem to be coming in below the Droids.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves with a whole lot of nothing.

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A couple of things stick out of this chart snippet from Engadget.  One, last year’s iPad hangs pretty well with the tablets that are still vapor but due at some point this year.  Two, iPad 2 could technically  beat all of these other tablets to market, still.  Motorola’s Xoom with a later this month release has the best shot at beating it.

Also: Umm…where’s Microsoft?

The rest of the chart is over at Engadget.
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I’ve liked the webOS since day one, but watching the liveblogs (Engadget’s in this case), we’re pretty hard-pressed to find any real innovation here.

Let’s start:

This is what HP has invented:

Not bad in the history of technology.  What have you done for us lately?  Oh, you had to buy Palm.

Moving on:

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