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iPhone installed base will surf to 100m on iPhone 4 tidal wave – analyst

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Huge iPhone 4 pre-sales set new mobile device records. But what’s sparking this wave of interest? New features such as the video camera and faster processor inside iPhone 4 alongside the much-improved iOS 4 are just part of the package prompting this colossal interest, hints Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty.

As reported by Apple 2.0, Huberty cites a proprietary Morgan Stanley survey which suggests the upgrade rate will be over 50%. She expects the iPhone installed base to climb from 30 million at the end of 2009 to 100 million at the end of 2011.

Reasons users may upgrade include:

  • Redesigned hardware with many new important features
  • “Stickiness” of the installed base due to App store and iTunes
  • 57% of U.S. installed base is not fully upgradeable to iOS4 (i.e. no multitasking)
  • Early upgrade incentives from AT&T
  • Maturation of the installed base.

In the main, most analysts believe Apple

AT&T 'temporarily suspends' iPhone 4 pre-orders

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AT&T this morning has “temporarily suspended” iPhone 4 pre-orders, following yesterday’s widely-reported melt-down of its ordering systems.

UPDATE: This story seems to be breaking — now we learn AT&T’s iPhone pre-ordering systems may not have actually been tested pre-launch!!

The move follows a day of chaotic scenes at computer terminals in five countries yesterday, as iPhone 4 desiring consumers fruitlessly banged their fingers against the keyboard in hope that somehow their pre-order would get through.

As previously reported, it wasn’t just AT&T that creaked under the strain, Deutsche Telekom also faced

UPDATED: iPhone 4 demand 10x bigger than for iPhone 3GS in Germany and US

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AT&T’s melt down might have not just been poor forcasting on their part.  There might have been unexpected, pent up demand.  In Germany, iPhone 4 demand may have been ten times higher than for the iPhone 3GS when it went on pre-sale last year – and things are the same in the US.
AT&T has released the following statement since this report was first created.

“iPhone 4 pre-order sales yesterday were 10-times higher than the first day of pre-ordering for the iPhone 3G S last year. Consumers are clearly excited about iPhone 4, AT&T’s more affordable data plans and our early upgrade pricing.

“Given this unprecedented demand and our current expectations for our iPhone 4 inventory levels when the device is available June 24, we’re suspending pre-ordering today in order to fulfill the orders we’ve already received.

“The availability of additional inventory will determine if we can resume taking pre-orders.”

It wasn’t just AT&T that creaked under the strain. Deutsche Telekom faced

WWDC: AT&T makes it easier to upgrade to next-gen iPhone

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Yet more signs (if more are required) suggesting the next-model iPhone is on the way perhaps later today, US carrier AT&T has widened its upgrade eligibility scheme, opening up an upgrade opportunity for more existing users.

MacRumors tells us the new scheme means several readers who previously were ineligible to purchase a new subsidized iPhone now find that they are eligible.

Existing AT&T customers can check if they have seen their status change at http://wireless.att.com by clicking on “Check Upgrade Options” after they log in.

As in the example above, the new scheme could mean many customers can upgrade to a new phone much sooner at a lesser penalty.

AT&T continues to make moves seemingly preparing for a new model iPhone and more diverse carrier availability in the US.