As reported by Apple 2.0, Huberty cites a proprietary Morgan Stanley survey which suggests the upgrade rate will be over 50%. She expects the iPhone installed base to climb from 30 million at the end of 2009 to 100 million at the end of 2011.
Reasons users may upgrade include:
- Redesigned hardware with many new important features
- “Stickiness” of the installed base due to App store and iTunes
- 57% of U.S. installed base is not fully upgradeable to iOS4 (i.e. no multitasking)
- Early upgrade incentives from AT&T
- Maturation of the installed base.
In the main, most analysts believe Apple