Canaccord Genuity: iPad to extend Apple’s lead into 2012, Amazon to emerge as third-largest tablet maker

Various tablet market surveys give Apple’s iPad a different lead on rivals, mostly in the 60+ percent range. For example, Strategy Analytics pegged iPad’s market share in the September quarter at 67 percent (Canalys, too). A new estimate by research firm Canaccord Genuity has iPad selling a cool fourteen million units during the holiday quarter, an improvement over the 11.12 million units sold in the previous quarter, but perhaps not so much as Apple’s original projections.

Of an estimated 102.3 million tablets next year (60.3 million in 2011), they see Apple shipping 58.8 million to account for a 57 percent market share, down from 65 percent this year. Samsung should double its shipments from five million units this year to ten million in 2012 for a ten percent market share, the only non-Apple vendor with an estimated two-digit share.

Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley believes that Amazon’s $199 Kindle Fire tablet will change the dynamics, but affect other Android devices rather than iPad, which will be the top device in terms of sell-through:

While new entrants such as Amazon could disrupt the completive dynamics into holiday sales, we view low-priced 7-inch models as a threat to other Android OEMs rather than to the iPad. As such, given our updated iPad estimates, we anticipate Apple will command roughly 65 percent of the tablet units sold into the channel during C2011. However, we believe Apple’s sell-through share of the tablet market will exceed 75 percent during C2011.

Amazon, however, will emerge as the #3 tablet vendor on shipments of two million units in 2011 (they are launching the Fire tablet November 15) and five million in 2012, when they’re expected to expand the Kindle tablet family with an 8.9-inch model. Apple is also expected to update its iPad next year with features such as a faster processor (Apple’s in-house A6 chip) and high-resolution Retina Display.