Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has published a new research note in which he makes some Vision Pro predictions. Kuo expects Vision Pro shipments in year one to be below market expectations. He’s also unsure that a rumored low-cost version could come the following year.
Kuo makes four points about Apple Vision Pro ahead of the $3500 mixed reality headset’s debut in early 2024.
First, he sees maximum production capacity estimates next year between 400,000 and 600,000 units. He says this is below the 1 million units expected by the market. However, this isn’t the first time we’ve seen similar numbers discussed.
Vision Lite
As for the cheaper version of Vision Pro, i.e. the non-Pro version with few bells and whistles, Kuo says Apple may have canceled that plan for now.
“Apple may have canceled the low-cost Vision Pro version plan (with market consensus expecting a 2025 launch),” he writes. “Unless Apple significantly reduces the price of Vision Pro, the anticipated significant shipment growth in Vision Pro shipments starting in 2025 may not materialize.”
Vision Pro 2
Kuo goes on to predict that a successor to the Apple Vision Pro won’t come until the second half of 2027 at the earliest. That means the Vision Pro hardware teased in June 2023 might be what ships for the next few years.
His last point is that the Apple headset “may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone.” Kuo positions the challenge as convincing customers why they need spatial computing and not that the user experience is well done.
9to5Mac’s Take
There’s arguably no consensus on when Vision Pro becomes an iPhone-sized hit. The debate is still largely around if Vision Pro can become the next iPhone for Apple.
That’s a debate for the long-term outlook, though. Apple will sell as many Vision Pro units as it can make. The high price doesn’t mean much given the low production cap.
Apple may even be leaving money on the table in year one. Why offer a cheaper version or upgrade the original when you can’t meet demand with the OG Pro?
You can read our Vision Pro hands-on here. Apple says the product is on track to be released in the US early next year.
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