An analyst round-up by Philip Elmer-DeWitt shows clear expectations of the fourth quarterly year-on-year decline in a row of Mac sales. Most of the estimates are very strongly clustered around the 5M mark, with the average suggesting a 10.79% fall from last year’s 5.7M to 5.1M this year.

The sales estimates among the 19 analysts surveyed ranged from 4.65M at the low end to 5.8M at the top end – but it’s notable that just two companies are predicting sales growth …

While Mac sales have been falling for a full year now, they have so far been falling less than the PC sector as a whole. If the consensus view is correct, that will definitely not be the case this quarter (calendar Q3, Apple fiscal Q4).

There is, though, good reason for particularly poor sales this quarter: we’re of course all waiting impatiently for all-new MacBook Pro models to be announced on Thursday, with refreshes to MacBook Air and iMac lines too. The real test for Apple will be its fiscal Q1 2017 numbers, which will reflect sales of the shiny new devices.

We won’t have long to wait for the actual sales numbers: Apple will be announcing them tomorrow.

As for those new Macs, we’re expecting to see the MacBook Pro get an OLED touch panel, Touch ID power button, USB-C, Skylake CPUs and the option of an AMD Polaris GPU. Externally, the new machines are expected to be slimmer and have a reduced footprint, but not to adopt the wedge shape of the MacBook Air and 12-inch MacBook.

On the MacBook Air side, the rumors are for a minor refresh of the 13-inch model, though possibly not an updated 11-incher. We’re expecting a similarly minor update to the iMac.

Unsurprisingly, the overwhelming majority of 9to5Mac readers are expecting to buy at least one new Mac this time around.

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.

Check out 9to5Mac on YouTube for more Apple news:

You’re reading 9to5Mac — experts who break news about Apple and its surrounding ecosystem, day after day. Be sure to check out our homepage for all the latest news, and follow 9to5Mac on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn to stay in the loop. Don’t know where to start? Check out our exclusive stories, reviews, how-tos, and subscribe to our YouTube channel

About the Author

Ben Lovejoy

Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!

Ben Lovejoy's favorite gear