To say 2025 has been an unpredictable year for the smartphone market would be an understatement. Early in February, IDC had forecast a 2.6% growth, followed by a decrease to just 0.6% in May. Now, the institute has once again adjusted its forecast, thanks in part to “accelerated” iOS growth. Here are the details.
Tariff uncertainty now ‘just background noise’
When IDC lowered its 2025 worldwide smartphone market forecast from 2.6% to just 0.6% in late May, it cited “high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions leading to a slowdown in consumer spending.”
Today, the new report offers a slightly more positive outlook: the institute now expects the market to close 2025 with 1% growth, driven by “accelerated 3.9% iOS growth.” They claim that despite the challenges from earlier in the year, they see a “healthy replacement demand” that “will help push growth into 2026.”
Here’s Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker:
“While tariff volatility continues to pose high uncertainty, for now it is just background noise for the majority of smartphone vendors. OEMs must push forward their diversification and production plans to ensure there are enough shipments to fulfill demand which remains healthy in most markets, in select segments.”
Popal also says that the market will see 3.6% growth in the U.S. through 2025, 6.5% growth in the Middle East and Africa, and 0.8% growth in Asia Pacific, excluding China, which is set to see a 1% decline.
GenAI and foldables to gain territory
Their report also offers a steady but positive outlook through 2029, driven by increasing interest in foldable phones and the development and adoption of on-device generative AI capabilities.
And speaking of generative AI, here’s Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker:
“IDC forecasts over 370 million GenAI smartphones to be shipped globally in 2025, contributing to 30% share. As the number of use cases expands and consumer education increases, we expect on-device GenAI capabilities to be incorporated into more mid-range devices, making them a standard must-have feature sooner rather than later—boosting GenAI share to over 70% by 2029.”
Interestingly, the report doesn’t mention Apple as a potential growth driver for the foldable phone market, despite rumors that Apple might release its first foldable iPhone next year.
For this market, IDC forecasts 6% year-over-year growth in 2025, up from 2% in 2024, “followed by another 6% in 2026 and 11% in 2027.”
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