In a new investor note sent out this week, GF Securities’ Jeff Pu and Henry Huang project that Apple will be the only major smartphone manufacturer to grow shipments in 2026, even as the global market is expected to shrink by more than 14%. Here are the details.
Apple bucks smartphone market downturn
For the past few weeks, several reports from IDC and Counterpoint Research have been mapping out the impact of rising memory costs on smartphone sales.
And while the numbers may vary slightly, it is increasingly clear that Apple has been able to weather the downturn better than its competitors.
This week, Pu and Huang released a new investor note reinforcing that trend, projecting that Apple will gain significant market share in 2026 as most of its major competitors see shipments decline.
According to the report, Apple is on track to close out 2026 as the only major smartphone manufacturer to increase shipments, with a projected 4% year-over-year gain to 257 million units.
That would keep Apple ahead of Samsung, which is expected to ship 241 million smartphones, essentially unchanged from 2025. Apple also topped the rankings in 2024 and 2025.
Apple’s share of global smartphone shipments is also projected to climb to 24% in 2026, compared to 20% in 2025 and 19% in 2024.
Market-wide, the report projects a 14.2% drop in total shipments to 1.08 billion shipped smartphones for 2026, and further pegs 2026-2027 as “one of the most challenging periods for the industry, driven primarily by sharply higher memory prices, which have already pushed OEMs to reduce shipments and raise device prices.”
Back to Apple, the report reiterates that the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max have received a relatively lukewarm reception, which the analysts partly attribute to competition from the iPhone Duo and criticism of their weight. The analysts also cite production constraints affecting both the iPhone Duo and the iPhone 18 Pro lineup:
Due to hinge constraints, we are reducing the iPhone Duo EMS build plan from 7m to 6m units in 2026. We also lower the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max build plan to 72m units given the constraints associated with the adjustable‑aperture camera.
The iPhone Duo went up for pre-order earlier today and is already showing delivery estimates stretching into late January in the US and even further in other countries.
With all of that in mind, the report maintained its “Hold” rating on Apple stock, with a price target of $369. Apple shares closed at $343.46, up 0.43% on the day, making it the only major tech stock to finish in the green amid the ongoing sector-wide sell-off.
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