Ahead of the Apple event, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple is cutting the new 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro shipment forecast as it plans to start mass production of this product on 4Q22. Here’s what the analyst claims.
Apple shipment forecasts of new models have been cut by 20-30% before mass production. The analyst says “the MacBook Pro order cut is a structural risk for the ABF substrate and miniLED sectors.”
Kuo writes that it’s “infrequent” for Apple to cut orders before the peak season of new product mass production. He believes MacBook shipments may continue to decline YoY at least in 1H23.
Since the main upgrade of the new 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro will be the adoption of new processors, he says that “the limited new selling points may also result in lower-than-expected demand.”
In November of 2021, Apple introduced the brand-new MacBook Pro in 14-inch and 16-inch sizes alongside a new miniLED display, new ports, revamped design, and its powerful M1 Pro and M1 Max chips. While the new Macs have been a success, Apple doesn’t expect the same engagement from its customers with the next generation.
In addition, Kuo says that “the economic recession and the decline in WFH demand are the main reason for this order cut. These two negative effects will likely last for at least 6-9 months.”
He also gives a broader idea of the shipment forecast for MacBooks in 4Q22 as well:
The total MacBook shipment forecast in 4Q22 is cut by 15–20% due to the new MacBook Pro order cut, and MacBook shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 2022 (vs. market consensus of a 5–10% YoY decline)
While it’s easier to get a new MacBook Pro from Apple’s website, Kuo says it’s mainly due to a marked decline in demand rather than Apple keeping up with orders.
Although the order cut of Apple’s MacBook is smaller than those of its competitors, it also means that Apple’s high-end product demand is not immune to the economic recession/inflation, so investors should pay close attention to whether the demand for the iPhone 14 Pro will also be affected by the economic recession/inflation.
This new 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro will likely be announced from this spring until before WWDC23, according to a report by Bloomberg. Apple is also expected to hold an October event focused on Macs.
Read more:
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Comments