Munster

Ever since hearing that Steve Jobs had “cracked” the TV industry, Apple fans have been waiting for the day the company would release an actual television set. For now, Apple has given us the Apple TV set-top box, but some analysts now believe that Apple is gearing up to deliver an actual television in the next few years. Ming-Chi Kuo today noted that an updated Apple TV box running on Apple’s new A7 processor is expected in 2014, with an actual television set to follow in 2015 or 2016. The prediction also includes a warning that Apple TV sales will be limited unless Apple can find a way to integrate new TV services and content.

We expect Apple to launch a new version of the Apple TV with an A7 processor in 2014, and we forecast 2014 shipments to total 8.2mn units. Shipment growth will be limited unless Apple is able to integrate more TV content, services and its App Store, in our view.
We believe the slowdown in Apple TV shipments suggests Apple faces challenges in integrating TV content and services. If Apple wants to launch iTV, the challenges of integrating content and service are more difficult considering the different TV content ecosystems (e.g. cable operators) in various countries. Moreover, establishing an iTV supply chain is very costly. Thus we believe iTV launch will be delayed to end-2015 or early 2016 at the earliest.

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Fortune relays Piper Jaffray/Gene Munster’s bullish prediction that Apple could reach a $1Trillion valuation in a few years by taking some its competitors’ value while also benefiting from increased tech investment and sales. The first point he illustrates (above) is that during the period where AAPL gained $400B in valuation (2008 to present), some of its key competitors lost the same amount in market cap. The second point is rationalized thusly:

We believe dollars invested in US technology companies will increase ~5% y/y on average for the next three years (CY12-CY14). By comparison, dollars invested in US tech companies were up 9% y/y in 2011. Therefore, the tech sector will add ~$390 billion in market cap through 2014. We assume Apple could capture half of this market cap (from 85% in the 4 years prior).Therefore, the tech sector will add ~$390 billion in market cap through 2014. We assume Apple could capture half of this market cap (from 85% in the 4 years prior).

Here’s a video from CNBC where Munster explains his world view: Apple and Samsung rule the mobile roost and companies like Nokia and RIM disappears into the ether.

[vodpod id=Video.16316843&w=425&h=350&fv=]

Munster’s figures follow another report from yesterday by Topeka’s Brian White who first made the $1000 AAPL call…
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