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Survey of Apple Watch purchase intentions suggests first year sales of 35M

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A Credit Suisse survey of iPhone 6/Plus owners found that 18% of them would ‘definitely’ buy an Apple Watch, with a further 11% saying they would probably buy the upcoming smartwatch, reports Business Insider.

A general rule of thumb when interpreting purchase intention claims is to count only those who say they will ‘definitely’ buy (some of them won’t, but that’s balanced out by the fact that some of the ‘probably’ and ‘maybe’ categories will). That would suggest around 35M sales in the first year … 

Although it’s a single survey, it arguably gives a better steer than analyst estimates, which have varied wildly from 10M to 37M – especially as few have presented a solid rationale for their numbers. Interestingly, the 35M number is reasonably close to the calculation performed by one analyst that did show its workings: Morgan Stanley used first-year iPad sales as a steer to arrive at its estimate of 30M.

Credit Suisse does, however, expect Apple to take a conservative approach, aiming at producing 20M Apple Watches this year. If it is correct, keen buyers had better act quickly once the wearable goes on sale: demand is likely to outstrip supply for a considerable time. We’re expecting the Apple Watch to be launched in March following retail training in February.

We yesterday revealed exclusive details about the companion app for the Apple Watch, including the ability to organise the homescreen view of the watch from your iPhone, displaying stock details on the watch face and the ability to choose between dictated text and voice recordings when sending messages.

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Comments

  1. Klaus Dietrich Lange - 9 years ago

    Sorry Credit Suisse, but apparently you forgot to ask iPhone 5/5s owners.

  2. dowco1 - 9 years ago

    It just works! 😃

  3. chrisl84 - 9 years ago

    Apple will without question keep the production volume low to create high demand of the Apple Watch. The harder it is to get, the more people will want it. But 20M seems like a high goal to me. Time will tell

    • Carlos R. Batista - 9 years ago

      20 million watches for the quarter is low? Do you people think Apple can just poop out watches, iPhones and iPads at any quantity value? wtf.

      • chrisl84 - 9 years ago

        WTF? I said 20M seems high, you might be a little high yourself?

    • rgbfoundry - 9 years ago

      I don’t think Apple plays the supply-chain-constraints game. As a company, they don’t count on a lack of supply to drive demand. That might work for the Acura NSX or Bugatti, but it doesn’t make sense in the accessories market. It’s far better to make as many as you think you can sell, or at least meet the estimated initial demand. You can bet Apple looks at surveys like the one featured in this article.

      • chrisl84 - 9 years ago

        I dont know, I’ve never seen an iPhone launch that supply met demand, or even close to it. If you dont preorder you can expect 6 week shipping times.

      • rgbfoundry - 9 years ago

        Why would you allow individual pre-orders if you intended to choke supply to drive up demand? Apple has been burned in the past by either over-estimating demand for a product (Apple Cube) or underestimating it. When the accessory is brand new, they won’t actually choke the supply. to drive demand, you can count on them gifting the accessory to celebrities. Remember how much play Stephen Colbert got showcasing his pre-release iPad? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58_gm5EUx8E

      • chrisl84 - 9 years ago

        Because Apple doesnt make ZERO at launch, they are able to take preorders and if you arent online at 3am trying you are S.O.L. because shipping times slip to days to weeks to several weeks by the end of the first day of preorder. Not sure what releases you pay attention to but supply never remotely meets demand.

      • chrisl84 - 9 years ago

        This supply/demand issue is even briefly addressed in the article itself.

      • rgbfoundry - 9 years ago

        So if Credit Suisse thinks demand is really really high, and Apple thinks a conservative launch is more in order, does that mean Apple is choking supply. Couldn’t it just mean they don’t think they should make more than 20 million at launch before they enter the real world.

  4. rgbfoundry - 9 years ago

    Apple will get a boost in iWatch sales thanks to fuel prices being so low. I think it will help more consumers consider themselves in the market for an expensive and generally unnecessary accessory.

  5. The Butcher - 9 years ago

    Reblogged this on pundit from another planet.

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Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Ben Lovejoy

Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!


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