Morgan Stanley Stories January 8

AAPL: 96.96

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Morgan Stanley Stories December 14, 2015

AAPL: 112.48

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Update: Fortune reports that in a conference call, Huberty said her forecast was in part based on an estimated 10% drop in component orders. She noted that this could be due to robust inventories rather than weak demand, and that the numbers in the note were a ‘worst-case’ scenario. Huberty emphasized that she remains upbeat on Apple, citing a strong brand, loyal customers, R&D investment and other revenue streams compensating for weaker predicted iPhone sales.

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The brand is strong. Customers are loyal. Gross margins are stable. R&D is going full tilt. And revenue streams from new products (Watch, Apple TV), apps, and media could start to make up for slowing iPhone growth.

An investment note by Morgan Stanley Katy Huberty predicts that Apple will see its iPhone sales fall by 5.7% in Apple’s 2016 financial year, reports Business Insider. The prediction is significant for two reasons: if realised, it would be the first time since the launch of the iPhone that sales have fallen year-on-year – and the forecast is made by a noted Apple bull.

Morgan Stanley thinks that Financial Year 2016 iPhones sales will be 218 million – a 5.7% drop — while Calendar Year 2016 sales will be 224,000 — a 2.9% drop. These predictions are significantly below Huberty’s previous estimates, of 247 million for FY2016 and 252 CY2016.

One of the reasons given isn’t new – high smartphone penetration in developed markets – but Huberty says there is a second reason …

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Morgan Stanley Stories November 3, 2015

AAPL: 121.18

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Morgan Stanley Stories August 6, 2015

AAPL: 115.13

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Morgan Stanley Stories January 14, 2015

A Credit Suisse survey of iPhone 6/Plus owners found that 18% of them would ‘definitely’ buy an Apple Watch, with a further 11% saying they would probably buy the upcoming smartwatch, reports Business Insider.

A general rule of thumb when interpreting purchase intention claims is to count only those who say they will ‘definitely’ buy (some of them won’t, but that’s balanced out by the fact that some of the ‘probably’ and ‘maybe’ categories will). That would suggest around 35M sales in the first year …  expand full story

Morgan Stanley Stories December 11, 2014

A report by Taiwan’s United Daily News claims that Apple supplier Quanta will begin mass-production of the Apple Watch in January, echoing an earlier supply-chain rumor from September. It claims that the initial production run will be between three and five million units.

The report says that there have been ‘breakthroughs’ in yield issues, and that the company increased its production staffing from 3000 to 10,000 workers in the second half of the year, with further recruitment ongoing …  expand full story


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