A Credit Suisse survey of iPhone 6/Plus owners found that 18% of them would ‘definitely’ buy an Apple Watch, with a further 11% saying they would probably buy the upcoming smartwatch, reports Business Insider.
A general rule of thumb when interpreting purchase intention claims is to count only those who say they will ‘definitely’ buy (some of them won’t, but that’s balanced out by the fact that some of the ‘probably’ and ‘maybe’ categories will). That would suggest around 35M sales in the first year …
Although it’s a single survey, it arguably gives a better steer than analyst estimates, which have varied wildly from 10M to 37M – especially as few have presented a solid rationale for their numbers. Interestingly, the 35M number is reasonably close to the calculation performed by one analyst that did show its workings: Morgan Stanley used first-year iPad sales as a steer to arrive at its estimate of 30M.
Credit Suisse does, however, expect Apple to take a conservative approach, aiming at producing 20M Apple Watches this year. If it is correct, keen buyers had better act quickly once the wearable goes on sale: demand is likely to outstrip supply for a considerable time. We’re expecting the Apple Watch to be launched in March following retail training in February.
We yesterday revealed exclusive details about the companion app for the Apple Watch, including the ability to organise the homescreen view of the watch from your iPhone, displaying stock details on the watch face and the ability to choose between dictated text and voice recordings when sending messages.