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While most analysts are expecting Apple to comfortably beat its holiday quarter guidance of $75.5-$77.5B, one large firm of analysts goes much further.

An investment note by Morgan Stanley seen by Business Insider says that an analysis of Apple’s financial report suggests that the company could be gearing up for quarterly sales totalling as much as $84.4B.

The clue, claims the company, is the company’s off balance-sheet spending commitments.

Apple’s last quarterly report revealed $29.5 billion in off balance-sheet commitments, and $7.3 billion in other commitments, at the end of the September quarter.

These usually represent money that Apple is planning to spend on parts and manufacturing equipment.

It should be noted that although Apple has recently been beating its own guidance of late, this has typically been by just a few percent – nothing like the leap Morgan Stanley is suggesting. While Steve Jobs used to give extremely conservative guidance, seemingly enjoying blowing expectations out of the water, Tim Cook promised more accurate guidance under his leadership and has more-or-less been delivering on that.

It also wouldn’t be the first time the analysts have made big leaps on little data. We’re going to file this one in the skeptical pile.

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