Apple and Samsung will largely own the smartwatch market between them, predicts Jackdaw Research chief analyst Jan Dawson in a report being issued later today and seen by Re/code.

Dawson said that new players should “stay out of the market,” and existing players should scale back their plans.

“We do not recommend that existing vendors should maintain current levels of investment when market growth and the overall revenue opportunity remain poor,” Dawson said. “It is unlikely that more than one or two small vendors will be able to make a sustainable business out of smartwatches in the face of competition from Samsung and […] Apple” …


Reuters reported in June that Apple would release the iWatch in October, with wireless charging and a 2.5-inch screen, and predicted sales of 50M units within the first year. Morgan Stanley echoed the sales prediction last month, suggesting that initial sales would match those of the iPhone or iPad.

Apple recently filed for HealthKit trademarks in the US and Europe, with watches as one of the product categories specified. We first predicted the health and fitness focus of the iWatch more than a year ago.

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