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Apple and Samsung will sew-up the smartwatch market, others will fail, predicts analyst


Apple and Samsung will largely own the smartwatch market between them, predicts Jackdaw Research chief analyst Jan Dawson in a report being issued later today and seen by Re/code.

Dawson said that new players should “stay out of the market,” and existing players should scale back their plans.

“We do not recommend that existing vendors should maintain current levels of investment when market growth and the overall revenue opportunity remain poor,” Dawson said. “It is unlikely that more than one or two small vendors will be able to make a sustainable business out of smartwatches in the face of competition from Samsung and […] Apple” …

Reuters reported in June that Apple would release the iWatch in October, with wireless charging and a 2.5-inch screen, and predicted sales of 50M units within the first year. Morgan Stanley echoed the sales prediction last month, suggesting that initial sales would match those of the iPhone or iPad.

Apple recently filed for HealthKit trademarks in the US and Europe, with watches as one of the product categories specified. We first predicted the health and fitness focus of the iWatch more than a year ago.

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  1. Joel Henson - 9 years ago

    Well good news for Apple, because Samsung has already failed

    • Jim Hsiao (@Jim_Hsiao) - 9 years ago

      so true!

    • Tony C (@Muadibe10) - 9 years ago

      You may be correct. Samsung is in a really strange place right now with respect to mobile. They’ve had a good run, but it looks like there’s barely any steam left in their mobile engine.

      Being squeezed at the low end by Chinese manufacturers and at the high end by Apple, is going to start hurting at some point. Not sure what they might try, but we may already be witnessing their downward spiral.

  2. dailycardoodle - 9 years ago

    I could imagine pebble surviving if they improve their design and lover their price.

  3. o0smoothies0o - 9 years ago

    Samsung only has a chance after they see and copy Apple’s.

  4. fanaticalabouttech - 9 years ago

    I’m certainly interested to see what Apple comes out with when the announce the new iWatch as I feel that they will be a strong competitor. However Samsung on the other hand is someone that I feel competitors should not be feared by.

  5. robertsm76 - 9 years ago

    I disagree with the analyst. I think Samsung will battle the fit bits, Peebles etc for the piece of the pie that Apple doesn’t get. Like tablets, smart watches will be A market of Apple and ‘others’.

  6. Mr. Grey (@mister_grey) - 9 years ago

    What they have said here is nothing that actually rises to the level of a “prediction.” They are making a guess that things in this market will be like things in the old market. A very easy guess with nothing to argue against it. Needless to say this is like “predicting” that the sun will rise in the morning.

  7. Richard Fitzpatrick - 9 years ago


    Nobody knows what will happen. Back in 2006 the same guy was probably predicting that Nokia would dominate the smartphone market forever and Apple/Google & Co should forget about the mobile market.

  8. daving313 - 9 years ago

    Says the analyst who probably has investments in both Apple and Samsung.

  9. …and what of the moto360? Also, the smartwatch market will continue to remain a small market for a long time, so in the great scheme of things, it really won’t matter who dominates this market.

    Also, to the guy below who said something about samsung copying Apple. It appears that apple is sitting on the sidelines, watching others play their moves. So when they release their product, they will have copied and mashed together ideas that worked in other devices.

    • Mike Knopp (@mknopp) - 9 years ago

      I am still not convinced that what Apple will release will be a “smartwatch”.

      Look at their hiring history. They haven’t been hiring a large number of watch designers. They have been hiring biometric designers and health monitoring experts.

      When Apple releases their wearable device (I really hope that they don’t call it iWatch) it might be worn on the wrist and tell time, but it won’t be anything like the recent spate of smartwatches, whose primary function is to replicate the smartphone on the wrist. Apple’s will be something very different at its core.

      So, will Apple copy others? I am sure that some parts will be incorporated, but in total no. Is it highly likely that as soon as Apple releases their wearable that Samsung will completely change their direction and try to incorporate and copy what Apple releases?

      If Apple’s device sells well, I think it is a certainty. It is what they do. It is what they have done time and time again since long before the iPhone was ever released.

  10. Gregory Wright - 9 years ago

    “Apple and Samsung will largely own the smartwatch market between them,”

    Wow! Looks like Jan Dawson went way out on a limb with this one.

  11. RP - 9 years ago

    There is no doubt t hat what apply is working on is very ambitious and most likely above and beyond better than everything on rhe market today. Having said that, the absence of Steve Jobs is now starting to be felt. The gaudy and childish ios which looked unfinished and unpolished wasmthe first sign of Steve’s absence. And now the imminent release of the iPhone 6 which does not look like a high end device.

    Any invester should be cautious right now, until we see if the trend toward a brown Zune is the new Apple, or only an anomaly.

  12. Chris Denny (@dennyc69) - 9 years ago

    More Like Apple and Goggle (Moto X)


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Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!

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