In the latest sales forecast from KGI securities, Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects a number of factors to contribute to initial slow sales of Apple’s thin new 12-inch MacBook w/Retina display. The analyst with an excellent track record believes that “higher price and concerns about the model having only one USB-C I/O, a potential inconvenience, along with supply chain constraints” will keep unit numbers at around 450K units leading up to Apple’s WWDC in June. That’s the event where a new Mac operating system, OS 10.11, will likely be unveiled.

Kuo is much more bullish on the long term prospects of the device and its features, however. He believes the product will “prompt the market to refocus on the thin and light form factor design trend, including metal casing, hinge, fanless thermal system, USB Type-C and thinner keyboard/ panel,” which already has begun to happen if our inboxes are any indication.

Full Note on MacBooks follows:

We forecast shipments of the all-new design 12-inch MacBook of 450k units in 1H15; despite limited near-term contribution to the supply chain, the product boasts positive medium/ long-term trends. Given the higher price and concerns about the model having only one USB-C I/O, a potential inconvenience, along with supply chain constraints, we forecast shipments of the all-new design 12-inch MacBook will reach only 450k units in 1H15. Despite limited near-term contribution to the supply chain, we believe the product will prompt the market to refocus on the thin and light form factor design trend, including metal casing, hinge, fanless thermal system, USB Type-C and thinner keyboard/ panel. Stocks for Action The 12-inch MacBook and Apple Watch have garnered mixed reviews. We see both products as having outstanding designs. Considering pricing and supply chain constraints in the foreseeable future, we believe shipments momentum is capped near term. Medium/ long term, we are positive on the industry trends represented by both products.

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