Today will see the announcement of AAPL earnings Q1 2021 – the company’s first fiscal quarter of the year, which is the final calendar quarter of 2020. The coronavirus crisis made things too uncertain for Apple to offer any guidance, so we have only analyst estimates to go on until the company reveals the numbers at 2 pm PT/5 pm ET.

The holiday quarter is always a big one, all the more so when it captures 100% of the launch sales of the iPhone 12 – and has M1 Mac sales in the mix too …

It’s no surprise, then, that analysts have big expectations. The exact numbers depend on which ones you ask, but the Wall Street consensus view is in the order of $103B. Seeking Alpha ran the numbers.

The consensus EPS Estimate is $1.41 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $103.24B (+12.4% Y/Y).

Analyst expects iPhone sales of $59.86B, Mac $8.68B, iPad $7.61B, Wearables, Home and Accessories $11.91B.

The PED30 roundup has the same story.

The professionals I’ve heard from so far expect Apple to beat last year’s Q1 results in every category — by roughly 13% on the top and bottom lines.

Everyone expects high hardware sales, as pandemic lockdowns have seen both laptop and tablet sales boosted by people working and studying from home. There have also been numerous indicators that iPhone 12 sales have exceeded Apple’s expectations.

Investopedia says analysts and investors expect this to have been matched by a similar pandemic bonus for Services.

Apple’s services include streaming services such as movie and TV entertainment provider Apple TV+, video game seller Apple Arcade, news services, and digital content stores including the iTunes Store and the App Store, as well as Apple Pay, and AppleCare. It also includes a variety of other services that support Apple’s hardware devices. Revenue from Apple’s services business tends to be more stable and predictable than its product revenue, and services also have dramatically higher margins.

Analysts expect Apple’s services revenue to increase to $14.9 billion in Q1 FY 2021, its highest level in at least four years. 

It’s again expected that Apple won’t offer any guidance for the current quarter, but AB Bernstein says the company will offer ‘guidelines‘ – some indicators of how it thinks the quarter will pan out, but stopping short of any specific revenue forecasts.

We’ll of course be bringing you all the numbers and executive commentary later today.

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