Kuo: iPhone 13 pre-orders stronger than iPhone 12, shortages of iPhone 13 Pro to persist until November

Three days after pre-orders officially opened, reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is out with a new investor note today detailing iPhone 13 pre-orders and supply shortages. According to the analyst, pre-orders for the iPhone 13 series “are higher than those for the iPhone 12 series,” but still “in line with market expectations.”

Kuo says that pre-order demand for the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max is significantly higher than that for the iPhone 13 mini and iPhone 13. The analyst writes:

In terms of the proportion of shipments and average delivery time, iPhone 13 Pro Max & Pro are 45–50% and 3–5 weeks, respectively, both higher than the 35–40% and 3–4 weeks of iPhone 12 Pro Max & Pro. Therefore, the pre-order demand for iPhone 13 Pro Max & Pro increases. iPhone 13 & mini are 50–55% and 0–2 weeks, respectively, both lower than iPhone 12 & mini’s 60–65% and 1–2 weeks. Therefore, the preorder demand for iPhone 13 & mini declines. Overall, pre-order demand for iPhone 13 series is better than iPhone 12 series.

In terms of supply constraints, Kuo says that the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max are unlikely to be supply constrained for as long as the iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max were last year. One of the issues Apple had last year was a shortage of telephoto camera supply, but that has been resolved this year.

Furthermore, while Apple has been taken aback by the high demand for the iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max last year, it has “increased the supply share” of the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max. For this reason, Kuo predicts that availability of the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max, which are currently backordered, will improve by mid-November at the earliest.

In total, Kuo expects iPhone shipments to increase by 5% year-over-year in 2020 and 16% year-over-year in 2021, respectively, benefiting from 5G demand and the US’s ban on Huawei.

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