There have been a number of predictions that Apple will next year report a year-on-year decline in iPhone shipments for the current quarter, KGI among them. Most such reports are based on extrapolating from supply chain data which attempts to estimate production volumes.
These reports contrast with Apple’s own guidance for record revenue of $75.5B to $77.5B. Tim Cook argued in October that some two-thirds of existing customers are still using older phones, leaving plenty of room for upgrades this quarter, and that Apple is winning over Android owners in record numbers.
One analyst believes he knows how the conflict can be resolved…
AAPL has had a very close eye on being able to achieve what has become a Dec Q Street iPhone estimate of 76M – 78M; we think that the company can deliver this number by building 70M – 75M and shipping the balance from inventory.
In other words, while it may have made fewer iPhone 6s/Plus models this quarter (calendar Q4 2015, Apple’s fiscal Q1 2016), it can more than make up the difference from existing stocks of older models, reports Business Insider
Beating last year’s numbers would be quite an achievement. In 2014, the iPhone didn’t go on sale in China until the holiday quarter, meaning plenty of pent-up demand; this year, China was a launch country, so there’s no equivalent artificial boost.
The number to beat? 74.4M iPhones. We’ll find out next month.
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Thats hard to beet with an S model.
Hasn’t S model always beat the prior year’s model?
Like iPhone 5S and iPhone 4S that beat iPhone 5 and 4?
Most people upgrade once in two years, not once a year.
Every single S model has beat so far. As mentioned most people upgrade every 2 years, just like me – I went from
iPhone to 3S to 4S to 5S to 6S
Analysts, Schmalysts – These are the clowns that the street listens to and the reason that Apple stock is still way undervalued.
Want to see how the markets are manipulated by “$$$$$$$ Greed” – read or go see “The Big Short” and be prepared to lose your beliefs is these wonderful analysts!
YMMV.
P.S. Happy New Years, Ben!
I got my iPhone 6S Plus last October. I can’t imagine having a better phone. My wife still has a 5C. It’s like a toy phone compared to the 6s+! Thank you Apple for your innovation.
still believe that ip6s is the generally the best phone in the market NOW, why people believe analysis that much? the large rumour the larger $ they earn
The table has been set. The script has been written. Apple could have the biggest quarter of its entire existence and it wouldn’t matter. I have read several articles wondering why AAPL is where it is when the P/E is like 12 and the income is double that of Microsoft. Nobody thinks it is logical but there you have it.
Unfortunately there are no set rules for determining the value of a company. If there were you couldn’t have an Amazon with a P/E of 962 or so. Most companies would have to fall within a certain range of P/E based on actual performance and not some random projected performance. Microsoft has been sitting at a certain P/E for ten years and there is no way possible it could suddenly have a P/E three times what it was when the business hasn’t changed that much. That P/E is only based on some people’s perception of the value of the company. This is just Apple shareholders’ bad luck to have a company that Wall Street’s perception says it’s a dying company and I’d think that was some form of deliberate defamation. No future perception can be based on fact because it hasn’t happened yet. There’s something basically crooked in being able to do things like that.
Nothing is going to stop the constant Apple-bashing. Apple’s management leaders are just too soft. One would think there are laws about lying about how a company is performing and there should be some serious consequences against that. Suppose I were going around defaming local businesses with false accusations. I’m sure I would be violating some laws doing that sort of nonsense. Apple should be going after these analysts who keep making up future sales numbers and are totally wrong. I’m certain there are analysts who have an axe to grind with Apple and are deliberately going out of their way to try to prove Apple’s business is in jeopardy. Some of those negative things could be said about any number of companies but aren’t. Going around and deliberately spreading falsehoods based on speculation and rumors is just wrong. There needs to be verifiable facts and not merely some anonymous tipster.
While I find merit in your position – I also wonder if Tim Cook and Apple aren’t laughing all the way to the bank as they “buy back” outstanding Apple stock while the true value is so under valued. As a stockholder with a very comfortable Apple position, nothing would make me happier than to see Apple reach it’s true market valuation while increasing it’s Apple-owned shares!
As I said earlier – analysts have absolutely nothing to do with my position or belief that Apple is poised to do anything but grow and prosper.
Tim Cook is also an AAPL stockholder. At least a great deal of his compensation is in form of AAPL shares.
And lots of people at Apple.
Analysts and Weatherman: Extolling BS and incorrect predictions to the masses since the Witch Doctor.
But the weatherman at least try.
What would have happened if they didn’t add China for the first wave of countries for the new release? I don’t think Apple would have had as many units sold if they only rolled out the product in the same countries as last year. They obviously caught up with the demand and didn’t have a huge backlog like they did last year. They had lines outside the Apple Store during the majority of the day, this year I saw no lines after the initial release date. For the days I visited the Apple Store, I didn’t see huge amounts of people this year, when last year, the place was packed. Maybe it’s just my local area, but I did see less people in the local Apple Store during the Christmas season (between Thanksgiving and Christmas) and to me, that’s an indication of potential sales. Apple hasn’t released any information on what the maximum daily output they can currently do in terms of number of units they can ship per day. I’m sure they have been implementing more robots to help increase the output without having to hire a lot more people, but we don’t get that information to determine what sales is going to be. I just think that people are waiting a little longer in between refreshes and that information really isn’t being announced either.
It would be interesting to figure out what the product refreshes are for existing customers. Do they replace their existing phone every 12 months, 14 months, 18 months, 24 months, etc. on average? Does anyone post that information and how it may shorten or lengthen each year?