LONDON, ENGLAND - APRIL 22: A general view of Apples' Regent St store on Earth Day at Regent Street on April 22, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Ben A. Pruchnie/Getty Images for Apple)

Update: 13 billion euros later, we have an Apple response.

CNBC reports that the European Commission investigating Apple’s tax arrangement with Ireland is ruling against the Cupertino company and recommending that Apple pay over $1.1 billion in back taxes.

We wrote back in March that Apple was likely to lose its case as the tax arrangement with Ireland was likely to be declared illegal:

But while the wheels of EU tax investigations may grind exceedingly slowly, I’d be willing to wager quite large sums of money on the final outcome. It looks to me increasingly clear that Apple’s tax arrangements with the Irish government are going to be declared illegal, and that Apple is going to be faced with a significant bill for unpaid tax …

Read Ben Lovejoy’s overview of the arrangement here. For its part, Apple has insisted that its arrangement with Ireland is completely legal while using job creation numbers to make its case. Just last week we learned that Apple is set to create 1,000 new jobs in the country through a new expansion.

As we await more details to surface, the reported recommendation that Apple pay just over $1.1 billion in back taxes seems low compared to what could have happened. Last week we shared that it was possible Apple could face up to $19 billion in back taxes, according to one analyst, while most estimated the bill could amount to $8 billion.

Update: CNBC has new reporting on this breaking news:

The European Commission will rule against Ireland’s tax dealings with Apple on Tuesday, two source familiar with the decision told Reuters, one of whom said Dublin would be told to recoup over 1 billion euros in back taxes.

The Commission declined to comment on Monday.

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