New survey aims to show how many people will upgrade to a new iPhone this fall

A new survey from Loup Ventures aims to offer color on what percentage of Apple’s current iPhone users plan to upgrade to this year’s yet-to-be-announced models. The survey ultimately indicates that the iPhone is “settling into a lower growth, more predictable rhythm.”

Loup Ventures surveyed a total of 511 people in the United States, 226 of which currently own an iPhone. The results show that 22 percent of current iPhone users intend to upgrade their device come this fall when Apple announces new models for its iPhone lineup. Furthermore, 20 percent of those surveyed said they intend to purchase the already-available iPhone X or iPhone 8 over the next year.

Of the 42 percent who intend to upgrade this year, 28 percent plan to update to the iPhone 8, 18 percent to the iPhone X, ad 51 percent to the unreleased model.

During the same survey at this time last year, 23 percent of iPhone users indicated that they were going to upgrade to a new model when Apple updated its lineup in the fall. Two years ago, 15 percent of users indicated they were planning to update that year.

With the stabilizing upgrade rate, Loup Ventures is positive on AAPL due to more predictable growth :

Lower growth, more predictable iPhone demand. Looking at the data over the past two years suggests annual iPhone growth will settle into a more predictable 1-5% range. The good news is a more predictable iPhone growth, albeit at a lower rate, should be a positive for AAPL’s multiple.

Apple is expected to introduce three new iPhones this year, including an ‘iPhone X Plus’ with a 6.5-inch display, alongside a more affordable 6.1-inch model with an LCD display and a refreshed version of the existing iPhone X. A separate survey recently suggested that one of the biggest reasons people did not upgrade to the iPhone X or iPhone 8 is because of their desire for a larger screen and/or lower price.

These sort of surveys, especially those that are based on unreleased products such as this one, should be taken with a grain of salt. They don’t necessary reflect the entire market, but they can offer some interesting data.

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