A report earlier this week indicated that this year’s iPhone refresh could be Apple’s biggest since the iPhone 6 year. Now, a survey from Loup Ventures suggests that intent to upgrade among iPhone users is far higher this year than it was last year.

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Loup Ventures surveyed 530 U.S. consumers regarding “their intent to purchase” for this year’s new iPhone models. Of those 530 who were surveyed, some 48 percent said they planned to upgrade to a newer iPhone within the next year.

48 percent is far higher than last year, when 25 percent said they planned to purchase a new iPhone within the next year. Loup Ventures cautions, however, that 48 percent is “an outlier” and that intent to buy vs. actual purchase conversion can vary:

  • This survey showed a surprisingly high intent to upgrade, suggesting 48% of current iPhones owners intent to upgrade to a newer iPhone in the next year, compared to 25% in June of last year.
  • This 48% is an outlier, and therefore should be tempered (intent to buy vs. actual purchase conversion varies cycle to cycle), but the survey is nonetheless a positive indicator of upcoming iPhone demand.

The survey also asked Android users if they plan to switch to an iPhone in the next year, reveling that 19 percent of Android users plan to make the switch – up from 12 percent last year.

Lastly, the survey touched on consumer interest in augmented reality – an area that Apple has been incredibly bullish about:

We also asked if the respondent would have more, less, or unchanged interest in buying a phone that had more powerful augmented reality capabilities. This time, 32% of respondents said they would be more interested, compared to 21% when we asked the same question in September of 2017. While the most common answer is still “unchanged,” the uptick in interest reflects the slow but steady progression of mobile AR’s importance.

While surveys such as this one should also be treated with skepticism, it’s clear between this data and supply chain reporting that this year will be a big year for iPhone upgrades.


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