PED 3.0 saw the note from Piper Jaffray.
We asked >700 domestic iPhone owners which iPhone they would buy if they were to upgrade this year. 39% pointed to iPhone XS or XS Max, with approximately a 50/50 split between the two models. Our previous model assumed only 35% of units from Xs or Xs Max (with a 50/50 split). The remaining 61% indicated they would upgrade to either the iPhone Xr, 7 or 8.
It should be noted, however, that with the iPhone XR not yet out, the split may change once intending upgraders can compare the new model with the flagships.
Either way, says Piper Jaffray, the number planning to buy one of this year’s models is good news for Apple’s bottom line.
Raising iPhone ASP Assumptions for FY19. We are now expecting an FY19 ASP of $770 (vs. previous estimate of $758). If, as described above, iPhone Xr proves to have a higher mix than our estimate (i.e. 36% instead of 30% — to allow for new iPhones to account for 75% of mix, similar to FY18), it would take our FY19 iPhone ASP to $780 (vs. current consensus of $768).
An earlier report suggests that the iPhone XS Max is ‘three to four times‘ more popular than the smaller model XS, but that would make sense. Many early buyers will have upgraded precisely because they wanted to get the larger screen, while those who haven’t yet upgraded will be more of a mixed bag.