Kuo: iPhone 14 Pro demand to ‘disappear’ as Apple misses shipment goal by 20 million units

The supply and production issues plaguing the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max are no secret at this point. A new report from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo today offers additional details on the impact of these shortages, saying that iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments for the holiday quarter will be 15-20 million units lower than expected…

iPhone 14 Pro demand expected to ‘disappear’

Kuo has cut his shipment prediction for the iPhone lineup by around 20% in total. Kuo now anticipates shipments of 70-75 million units, versus the market consensus of 90 to 85 million units. As expected, ongoing COVID-19 restrictions and protests in China are the cause:

The average capacity utilization rate of Zhengzhou iPhone plant was only about 20% in November, and it’s expected to improve to 30–40% in December.

Pegatron and Luxshare ICT have obtained about 10% of the iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max orders from Foxconn, respectively. But mass shipments will not be until late December at the earliest.

According to the production recovery progress of the iPhone 14 Pro series, shipments in December were still significantly lower than expected.

Notably, Kuo goes on to say that he believes “most of the demand” for the iPhone 14 Pro series “will disappear” because of this gap in supply and demand. This means that buyers won’t defer their purchase to when supply has improved, something Kuo attributes to “the economic recession.”

Because of this, Kuo predicts that “Apple’s iPhone revenue in 4Q22 may be significantly lower than the market consensus by 20–30% or more.”

Apple also reportedly did not inform many of its component suppliers to cut orders, leaving them with “component inventory higher than normal for several weeks.” Kuo further says that “it will be difficult for Hon Hai to continue to be the exclusive assembler of the iPhone 15 Pro series because Apple wants to diversify supply risks.”

As we’ve covered before, it’s already too late to order an iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max from Apple in time for holiday deliveries. In fact, some models are already back-ordered into January of 2023.