Apple Glasses launch could be as early as 2026 – unlikely Kuo report

An unlikely report from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that the Apple Glasses launch could come as early as 2026 or 2027.

While the emphasis of the report is that Apple Glasses won’t be mass-produced before these dates, the idea that the product could be just three or four years out seems implausible based on what we’re expecting …

Background

Apple has long been rumored to be working on two different types of AR/VR wearables: a mixed-reality headset that may be branded as Reality Pro, and a much less-obtrusive AR device typically referred to as Apple Glasses.

The first-generation Reality Pro headset is expected to be previewed at WWDC, and to launch later in the year. It’s expected to be a very expensive ($2-3K) device primarily aimed at developers and other professional users. This is expected to be later followed by a more affordable model targeted at consumers.

Apple Glasses are a very different concept. What we’re expecting here is a wearable that looks somewhat like conventional prescription eyeglasses, and that can overlay augmented reality content like Apple Maps directions and notifications.

Apple Glasses launch

Kuo’s investment note says that:

Apple Glasses (not AR/MR headsets) […] will go to mass production in 2026 or 2027 at the earliest

We’ve outlined before why this seems exceedingly unlikely.

Apple Glasses are currently a moonshot project. Making them do all the things expected of them, in a device that has all-day battery life, which has a form factor similar to prescription eye-glasses, and is affordable enough to be a consumer product (even an Apple one), is a massively ambitious project. One that was always going to take many years: It was never likely to follow on in quick succession to the Apple Headset, gen 1 or gen 2.

There is always the impossible of a first-generation product that is significantly less ambitious than the expected functionality, but that doesn’t quite seem Apple’s style. It’s not going to launch a bulky device with a half-hour battery life. The company tends to let other brands take early compromise products to market, while Apple sits back and waits until it can do the job properly.

Metalens technology for Face ID

The underlying topic of Kuo’s report is on a new technology designed to enable camera lenses to fit into smaller spaces – metalenses. While existing lenses require curved surfaces and a significant depth, metalenses are flat lenses which can be thinner than a sheet of paper.

Kuo says that it will be some years yet before metalenses can replace camera lenses in premium devices like iPhones. The earliest we’re likely to see metalenses in front-facing cameras will be in the 2028 to 2030 range, and even then only in the lowest-end devices.

However, Kuo does expect to see Apple start making the switch to metalenses next year for the Face ID array.

The supply chain is anticipated to start mass production of Apple’s metalens in 2024, which is expected to replace the iPad’s plastic lens of the Face ID Tx […]

Should the metalens for the iPad in 2024 successfully ships, iPhone Face ID will adopt metalens in 2025 or 2026 (the latter is more likely at present).

He indicates that the first use will be in the dot projector, while it could be later used for the Face ID infrared camera, too.

The flat form factor also makes metalenses ideal for Apple Glasses, and he says that the Cupertino company is working on this. That in itself seems likely – his estimate of the fastest possible timescale much less so.