IDC now expects global PC shipments to grow in 2025, despite tariff uncertainty

Even with growing concerns over U.S. tariffs and a cooling economy, the global PC market is on track for modest growth this year, according to new projections from IDC.

According to the new report, PC shipments are now expected to reach 274 million units in 2025, up 4.1 percent from last year. As IDC explains it, “traditional PCs include Desktops, Notebooks, and Workstations and do not include Tablets or x86 Servers.”

That’s a notable revision, given how shaky the macro environment has become. But IDC says a mix of short-term incentives and long-term upgrade cycles is helping offset the turbulence, at least for now.

Manufacturers rush to ship before deadline

At the center of the revised forecast is the Trump administration’s 90-day tariff exemption on PCs, which IDC says has prompted manufacturers to accelerate shipments to the U.S. ahead of a potentially more expensive second half:

“The 90 day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90 day pause, is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the US.“

However, IDC cautions that the current pace isn’t sustainable. If tariffs return in full and inflation continues to eat away at consumer confidence, the market could see a pullback as early as Q3:

“However, expectations of worsening macroeconomic conditions around the world and in the US characterized by upward pressures on prices and degrading consumer sentiment, will impact the PC market in the second half of 2025. Nonetheless, IDC expects commercial demand for PCs to be healthy in 2025 as the Windows 11 migration continues steadily.”

Windows 11 continues to drive commercial upgrades

ICD notes that, longer term, enterprise demand will keep things afloat. The ongoing transition to Windows 11 is still pushing organizations to replace aging hardware, particularly in regions where extended support for Windows 10 is winding down.

The research institute notes that the Europe, Middle East, and Africa consolidated group is on track to grow into Q2 and beyond, with small and medium-sized businesses joining larger organizations in upgrading systems originally deployed during the pandemic.

What about the Mac?

While the report doesn’t break out specific OEMs, Apple is expected to update its Mac lineup soon, and share new macOS AI features at WWDC in June. That could give the Mac segment a lift as the second half of the year unfolds, assuming new tariffs don’t hit first.