Market intelligence company TrendForce has suggested an unlikely-sounding possibility: that Apple could overtake Samsung to become the global smartphone leader, following the upcoming launch of the iPhone 15.
Historically, Samsung’s position as the best-selling smartphone brand has seemed beyond challenging – at least, by Apple …
That’s because Samsung has an extremely diverse range of smartphone models, from budget phones, through mid-market, all the way up to flagship models competing with the iPhone Pro and Pro Max.
Apple, in contrast, almost exclusively targets premium buyers – with only the iPhone SE pitched at the mid-range, and nothing at all in the budget segment. That makes it almost impossible to compete with Samsung on volume.
Apple could overtake Samsung this year
However, says TrendForce, the launch of the iPhone 15 lineup might see that change.
Samsung continues to lead in production rankings, delivering 53.9 million units in Q2. However, it suffered a 12.4% QoQ downturn. Amid global economic headwinds and fierce competition, coupled with a waning halo effect from its flagship phone releases earlier in the year, Samsung’s Q2 performance lagged behind the same period last year. Although Samsung is set to roll out new foldable models in Q3, the impact on its overall growth is expected to be marginal given the relatively low sales volume compared to its Galaxy S series.
Apple’s second quarter is typically the weakest quarter in terms of production, owing to its transition between older and newer models. Output for the second quarter clocked in at 42 million units, marking a 21.2% dip from the preceding quarter […]
Intriguingly, Apple and Samsung are neck-and-neck in their annual production projections. Should the iPhone 15 series outperform market expectations, Apple stands a good chance of ousting Samsung from its long-held position as the global market leader.
This is in line with IDC’s suggestion last week, that the iPhone could set a new record for global market share.
IDC expects iOS shipments to see 1.1% growth in 2023 to reach an all-time high share of 19.9% as iOS continues to remain more resilient to macro challenges than Android, which is forecast to decline 6.0% this year.
But bad news on the overall smartphone market
TrendForce does share the pessimism of other market intelligence companies when it comes to the size of the smartphone market as a whole. We noted last week the consistent view of two other big players.
Ask any of the big market intelligence companies about the global smartphone market, and you’ll get the same gloomy answers. Both Counterpoint and IDC, for example, agree that 2023 will see the lowest level of smartphone shipments in a decade.
TrendForce agrees.
Demand in consumer markets such as China, Europe, and North America has not shown a significant rebound as we move into the second half of the year. Even if economic indicators in the Indian market improve, it is still difficult to reverse the global decline in smartphone production. TrendForce predicts that the smartphone market may undergo another shift in Q2 this year due to poor global economic conditions, and production for the second half may consequently be further reduced.
Looking ahead to 2024, the current economic outlook is not optimistic. TrendForce maintains its forecast of a 2~3% annual increase in global production, depending on regional economic trends. Whether this will further drag down production remains to be seen.
Photo: London’s Regent Street store/Apple
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