A chart posted by Fortune showing what happened to Apple’s stock price for 12 months before and after each new iPhone launch shows that it rose after four of the six launches.

Conventional wisdom says that Apple traders buy the rumor and sell the news, but the series of stock charts Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore shared with clients Monday suggest the opposite.

The brief piece explains the exceptions by observing that the 3G launched just before a major recession and the iPhone 5 when the stock was already at an all-time high, but we wouldn’t suggest investing any money on the basis of those six squiggly lines …

Update: BTIG’s Waltyer Piecyk has posted some more short-term historical data, suggesting that the separation of iPhone announcements from WWDC ended the ‘sell on the news’ phenomenon:


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4 Responses to “How will AAPL stock price react to iPhone 5S/5C launch? Let’s look at history”

  1. PMZanetti says:

    My guess is, it will react disproportionately.


  2. rettun1 says:

    I’d guess it will rise after the fact. The 5C will bring in tens of millions of customers (according to another 9to5 article). I would think investors would be interested in that sort of thing. You know, money?


  3. standardpull says:

    Interesting that it does better for the “S” model years. Maybe because “S” models incur less risk, and non-S years result in a high level of running up the stock price before release.


  4. John Andrews says:

    Ah the joy of stock gambling…, invest for the long term and get back to work.