Research firm Strategy Analytics released its latest report today forecasting global Apple Watch sales and smartwatch marketshare for 2015. The firm’s predictions put Apple’s anticipated global smartwatch marketshare at more than half with 54.8% reached in 2015. Notably, that forecasted percentage is versus all other smartwatches combined competing with the Apple Watch.
While the report predicts that Apple will take the overwhelming majority of smartwatch sales this year, it predicts a relatively conservative number of units shipped globally in 2015 at 15.4 million. That forecast still beats the collective “other” group with a 12.7 million units shipped globally predicted.
To be clear, the firm is predicting that the as-of-yet unreleased Apple Watch will outsell the existing smartwatch market in 2015…
Compared to other predictions, the forecast from Strategy Analytics is more conservative (and perhaps more realistic) than previously released reports.
A Credit Suisse survey at the start of the year concluded that as many as 35 million Apple Watches would be sold in the first year based on iPhone owner interest, while the firm itself predicted a percentage of that at 20 million units in its forecast. Based on the iPad’s first year performance, Morgan Stanley forecasted even higher at 30 million units shipped in 2015. More specifically, Gene Muster of Piper Jaffray recently predicted just 10,000 of the 18k gold Edition models being sold in 2015.
Interestingly, Strategy Analytics does show the smartwatch market growing considerably in 2015 from 4.6 million units actually sold last year to 28.1 million units expected to ship globally this year. While the majority of that increase is attributed to the Apple Watch itself, the firm’s numbers puts everyone else’s collective growth tripling at 8 million more this year.
As for Apple, the firm notes that battery life and and over-all appearance compared to other smartwatches will create competition toward the end of the year creating challenges for the successor to the Apple Watch will need to address for Apple to maintain its lead.
Apple has only thus far described the Apple Watch battery life as needing to be recharged every night, but we’ve reported performance during the device’s development cycle as measuring in at 2.5 to 4 hours of active usage with 19 hours of combined passive/active use.
Apple is set to unveil much more availability details for its Watch on Monday, and we’ll have coverage of its special event as it happens. As for the Apple Watch’s international plans, we reported earlier this week comments from Tim Cook pointing to a multi-country launch next month.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Apple’s numbers will be even bigger if the Sport collection entry-level price is lower than the $349 they have released so far. When I think about what the Apple Watch actually is (a really beefed-up 6th Gen iPod nano), I really do see why and how I would use this product. The only thing slowing me down from buying one is is the price. My 6th gen iPod nano cost me $149 before tax and am really having a hard time justifying the extra $200 dollars for the Watch, even with all the extra features that come with the Watch.
Seriously? It’s nothing like an iPod nano. New user interface, speaker, flexible retina display, sensors and lots more
The New York Times, broke the story – the 6th gen iPod nano was the jumping-off point for the Apple Watch project. So it is an “extremely” beefed-up 6th Gen iPod nano. I’m glad you listed all those new features but I think both of us can agree that the extra $200 is a tough sell.
I disagree. Besides the size of the device there isn’t too much in common.
I think $200 is a bargain for the difference between the 2.
Are you honestly telling me that with an iPad mini 2 costing $299 (amazing tablet PC), that you still think the Apple Watch is a bargain for $349? Look, if it actually turns out that the $349 model is part of the Apple Watch collection and that the Sport collection come in at $299 (like the mini 2), I might agree with you. Otherwise, consumers will be getting a beefed up nano that requires having an iPhone for all the extra features, for $349. That is no bargain. Not by a long shot!
Why the hell should it be less than an iPad Mini 2?
All those sensors yet health kit missing… tough $349 sell.
The first gen Watch isn’t intended to be a health tracking device. It’s a timekeeping device that doubles as a great fitness tracker, a remote for various things, it can unlock doors and you can pay with it. This release simply isn’t about health.
If health kit was included every person who bought the Apple Watch could enjoy that benefit from day one, yet your saying that being able to unlock a door in a few hotels in a few locations around the world, or being able to pay in a limited amount of stores in the US only is somehow more important?
Did I miss something?
Isn’t Health Kit just the data store for all apps – both Apple and Third Party.
I’m pretty sure they said the Fitness app and Activity app on Apple Watch and iPhone companions will write data to Health Kit, where third party deva can then also gain access to this data.
Or are you talking about the ability view all Health Kit data through Apple Watch? Correct me if I’m wrong.
Well yeah, It’s the only smart-watch that doesn’t look like a cheap Kmart Dad watch
With that price tag, it will be hard for users to think of buying the overly hyped Apple Watch. There are other present n the market that over more specifications than Apple Watch. My bet is on Pebble Time Steel.
http://outfresh.com/latest-technology/new-tech-devices/pebble-time-steel-the-smartwatch-which-means-business/
I think that Apple’s smart watch will do well globally and there will be greater profitability because they will be reaching a lot of new target markets/consumers. Also, there wont have to be hardly any product modification because the brand Apple is known world wide. First however they should work on their battery life and fixing the flaws of the product.
I believe that the Apple Smart Watch is a new and innovative device that will show great sales in the future years to come. The watch is priced a little high for the market to bear so this may impose a threat to Apple.