Asymco has an interesting report today in which analyst Horace Dediu argues that Verizon may need the iPhone more than its letting on, and suggests Google Android may not be as big a business as many think it to be.

To be fair, while Dediu makes a good argument for his points, critics are already pointing out that they are based on data which may not be 100 per cent accurate, and that Verizon’s best month was in August, two months after iPhone 4 shipped. (Though it was only a slightly better month on back of hype around new product from Samsung).

We’ve had an update from the sources of the orginal data, which is posted at the foot of this article:

As provided to the WSJ (above), ITG Investment Research analyst Matthew Goodman claims to have hold of the monthly sales record for all Verizon’s devices. But even Dediu maintains that all his surmises are based on data that may not be accruate.

His conclusions?

The iPhone has stolen Verizon’s growth.

(Relative to iPhone growth Verizon has been growing at a slower rate. “iPhone alone is nearly twice the volume of all of Verizon’s smartphone activations.”).

Verizon is facing the prospect of a single OS platform supplier As the graphic shows, Android and Windows together account for the majority of Verizon’s smartphone share.

“Verizon is facing the prospect of a single OS supplier who may or may not maintain alignment with Verizon’s core profit algorithm. If they diverge, Verizon’s bargaining power will be strictly limited.” (This reflects my thoughts on Android v iOS).

Android is not competitive vs. iOS “In an apples-to-apples comparison, in Q3 the iPhone at AT&T outsold Android at Verizon (remember, same addressable market) by a factor of 2.5. This is with a variety of devices and vendors thrown in the market. We hardly ever get to see this finely grained a comparison when looking at platforms.”

Dediu preducts a deal with Verizon will attract at least 8 million iPhone sales, potentially up to 12 million — in the first 12 months.

From ITG:

“We would like to correct some assertions in your Verizon post.

ITG Investment Research did not and does NOT receive any material nonpublic information from Verizon or any other company we cover.

The information you were referring to comes from point-of-sale data at independent wireless retailers across the United States.  To be clear, we do not misappropriate or improperly obtain nonpublic information.

Our methodology is explained in more detail here:

The original blogger who made the false claim about a “leak” has corrected their post – see here:

We would be grateful if you would address this matter, as the incorrect speculation that we would obtain and publish material non-public information from a public company is a serious matter.”

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