Betting against Apple hasn’t been a successful endeavor of late but all of a sudden, declining holiday iPhone numbers seem to be in vogue.

Tech investment company Pacific Crest has echoed KGI’s prediction that year-on-year iPhone sales are likely to decline following the launch of the iPhone 6S, but says that investors shouldn’t be concerned.

We believe iPhone 6/+ models drove abnormally high share gains and upgrade rates that are likely to moderate somewhat in the 6s cycle, which is likely to drive total iPhone units down year-on-year in the first part of financial year 2016 (Q4 of calendar 2015) …


The forecast was reported in a tweet by Business Insider‘s Jay Yarow.

The company says that its forecast is supported by the results of its checks with component suppliers, which show reduced demand.

It says that it does not believe that the iPhone will lose sales to competitors, but will simply fail to benefit from the boost to sales it saw when it first launched the iPhone 6. In other words, there was large pent-up demand last time for larger-screened devices, and that additional demand won’t be a factor this time around.

Pacific Crest said back in June that was anticipating “slower sequential growth” in December, but now anticipates an actual decline in sales. The company’s earlier prediction of Q3 iPhone sales of 46.8M was almost spot-on, though the June piece described a “potential” of 50-52M sales.

KGI last week also predicted zero or negative growth for the next iPhone, citing both the weak Chinese economy and likely limited appeal of Force Touch as a headline feature.


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