You’re nobody in the analyst world unless you’re predicting a ‘supercycle’ for the iPhone 8 – a huge increase in sales over and above the normal level expected for a new iPhone. Pretty much every analyst on the planet is predicting one this year, with sales expected to exceed those of the earlier supercycle seen for the iPhone 6.

But Nomura says that even these predictions are under-estimating the likely popularity of this year’s iPhones …

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The iPhone 6/Plus of course saw dramatic sales as it tapped into pent-up demand for larger phones. The flip side of that was that demand fell sharply afterwards as customers remained satisfied with their existing phones in the face of relatively modest updates. That is expected to change this year, big-time.

The market consensus is 80M iPhone sales in the final quarter of this year – already well above the 75M iPhone 6 supercycle. But Business Insider reports that Nomura thinks the market is underestimating the likely scale of iPhone 8 sales – precisely because iPhone 6 sales were so high, meaning that the base of would-be upgraders is much larger.

“We estimate the iPhone 8 will launch into an iOS subscriber base 45-50% larger than the iPhone 6 did and model 86 million iPhones in F1Q18 (from 83 million).”

The increase in subscribers has been driven by sales of the iPhone 6, the analysts say: “We believe the iPhone 6 drove the iOS base up ~35%, followed by 5-10% increases from the subsequent devices.” Anyone who is still using an iPhone 6 is a prime candidate for buying a new iPhone in late 2017.

This year’s iPhone is expected to be a dramatic upgrade. Rumored features include an all-glass design with embedded Home button, OLED display on at least one model, potentially long-range wireless charging, new color options and more.

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