How Apple will (almost certainly) keep Emergency SOS via Satellite free forever

When Apple announced the Emergency SOS via Satellite service with the iPhone 14 line-up, it said at the time it would be free for the first two years – implying that it would require a paid subscription after that.

Earlier this month, Apple gave iPhone 14 owners an extra year. As things stand, then, both iPhone 14 and iPhone 15 owners will get free service until September 2025. After that, though, Apple has a problem …

Apple has to keep Emergency SOS via Satellite free

John Gruber wrote a couple of pieces on this. In one, he suggests that Apple wants to make it free forever, but needed to assess the cost.

My hunch on this is that Apple would like to make this available free of charge in perpetuity, but wasn’t sure how much it would actually get used, and thus how much it would actually cost. If they come right out and say it’s free forever, then it needs to be free forever. It’s safer to just do what they’ve done here: make it free for an extra year one year at a time, and see how it goes as more and more iPhones that support the feature remain in active use.

In another, he links to a potentially disastrous PR scenario if Apple ever does start charging for it. The linked Washington Post piece describes an incident where a carjacker took a car with a two-year-old in it … and the car maker refused to track the car’s location until the expired $150/year locator subscription was renewed!

After Shepherd frantically called 911, investigators contacted Volkswagen’s Car-Net service, which can track the location of the manufacturer’s vehicles. They hoped to locate Isaiah.

But a customer service representative said that wouldn’t be possible because Shepherd’s subscription to the satellite service had expired, according to a new lawsuit. The employee said he couldn’t help until a $150 payment was made, the complaint said.

As Gruber notes, things could be even worse.

If Apple someday cuts off free service for compatible iPhones, eventually there’s going to be someone who dies because they chose not to pay to continue service.

We can all imagine the headlines if a family of hikers were injured and died in the wilderness, only to later transpire that they tried and failed to use the Emergency SOS via Satellite service because their free subscription had expired. Apple has to find a way to keep it free.

Here’s how I think the company will do it

One possibility is that Apple simply continues to eat the cost forever, accounting for it as a PR and marketing expense. We’ve already had feel-good stories about the service saving lives:

• Family rescued from wildfires in Maui thanks to iPhone’s Emergency SOS via Satellite
• iPhone 14’s Emergency SOS via satellite and Crash Detection features combine to help first responders pull off incredible helicopter rescue
• First reported use of Emergency SOS via Satellite saves snowmobiler in Alaska

But this is Apple, and if there’s one thing the company likes as much as selling us some shiny new hardware, it’s signing us up to subscription services – so I think the company will monetize it if it can.

We’ve already seen one clue as to a potential monetization model: the Roadside Assistance add-on. This too is currently free, but it’s pretty easy to see how this could be turned into a chargeable feature without risking a PR calamity.

Another is to look at what dedicated emergency beacon subscriptions offer. Take Garmin’s inReach Messenger, for example. Once you’ve paid $300 to buy the device, you have a choice of subscriptions:

Safety: $14.95/month

While the primary selling-point of this is the same emergency service offered by Apple, you also get unlimited check-in messages. These are fixed text messages which let you reassure an emergency contact that all is well.

For example, if you’re off on a weekend wilderness camping trip, you can let your emergency contact that you’ll send check-in messages at say 9am, noon, 3pm, and 6pm. Each one of these lets them know all is well, and includes your location. If they don’t receive a check-in they are expecting, they can raise the alarm on your behalf, with your last-known location.

Recreation: $34.95/month

This plan adds the ability for family and friends to request your location at any time. They use a web interface to make the request, the satellite system pings your device and sends back your location.

This is another easy way to provide reassurance while you’re out of cellular coverage, letting a family member or friend see that your journey is progressing as expected. If they see that your location has remained the same for an extended time, when you were not expecting to make a stop, they again can contact emergency services on your behalf.

Expedition: $64.95/month

This one offers the ultimate in reassurance – updating your location every two minutes, and allowing unlimited tracking via the web.

But it also lets you keep in touch by text message when you are off-grid. You can unlimited custom text messages, exactly the way you would on a cellular plan.

Apple could easily adopt this type of model

For free, you get the existing SOS service: you can call for help when you need it. This is subsidised by a series of paid subscriptions, similar to the Garmin ones.

By keeping the base service free at all times, Apple avoids one PR disaster Garmin risks with its own offerings. The adventure company allows the option of one-off monthly subscriptions, which automatically cancel. While this flexibility is great – pay only when you are off on a holiday, for example – it does raise the possibility that someone could forget, and then be unable to call for help when they need it.

The company might also choose to include some better-than-free tier within Apple One. There are plenty of possibilities here. However Apple does it, I’d put money on the base service remaining free forever.

What’s your view? Please share your thoughts in the comments.

Photo: Brandon McDonald/Unsplash

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